The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features six games starting at 7:15 p.m. ET to kick-start a weekend of baseball action. Despite the smaller slate, there are plenty of spots to take advantage of.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Logan Webb ($7,800) San Francisco Giants (-240) vs. Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb jumps out as one of the highest-rated pitchers on Saturday’s slate. The Giants are a heavy favorite against the slumping Cinncinati Reds, who have a slate-low three-run implied total. Webb has had a decent start to the season, posting a 6-2 record with a 3.26 ERA, 21% K Rate and a 1.16 WHIP. With a steep discount on DraftKings and a strikeout projection of 5.78, expect Webb to be a popular option at SP1, and he should benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue of Oracle Park.
Logan Gilbert ($9,900) Seattle Mariners (+105) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The highest-priced pitcher on the slate, Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert seems to be in an ideal matchup Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels. Despite the high price tag of $9,900 on DraftKings and a 4.3-implied run total for the Angels, Gilbert should be a viable SP1 option, projected for a slate-high 6.89 strikeouts. He faces a projected Angles lineup with a 0.285 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the highest on the slate. The second-year pitcher is deserving of the high price tag and looks to come in at lower ownership than Webb. In 14 starts this season, Gilbert has a 7-3 record with a 2.28 ERA, 24.8% K Rate and a 1.04 WHIP. Be sure to take an extra look at Gilbert Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Patrick Sandoval ($8,800) Los Angeles Angels (-125) vs. Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels starter Patrick Sandoval projects as one of the top values on the slate, also tagged for four Pro Trends. In 11 starts this season, Sandoval has a 3-2 record with a 2.70 ERA, 22% K Rate and a 1.32 WHIP. He is projected for 6.66 strikeouts against a weak projected Seattle Mariners lineup with a 0.282 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a slate-low 0.296 wOBA.
While Sandoval might not be seen as a traditional value play for Saturday’s slate, look for him to be a viable SP1 or SP2 option, especially on a slate without brand-name pitchers. Despite an eight-run total, Saturday’s matchup between the Angels and Mariners might end up being a pitcher’s duel, with two teams that have a tendency to strike out.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zach Eflin ($7,400) Philadelphia Phillies (+100) vs. San Diego Padres
When sorting by ceiling, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. He should come in with lower-than-expected ownership in a tough matchup against the San Diego Padres. Eflin’s numbers this season don’t necessarily stand out, posting a 2-5 record in 12 starts with a 4.43 ERA, 20% K Rate and a 1.19 WHIP.
However, Eflin is projected for 5.53 strikeouts and could easily become fantasy-relevant, especially in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. He faces an up-and-down Padres lineup with a 0.308 wOBA, which is one of the lowest on the slates. Eflin is certainly not the safest pick, but in GPPs, he may be the key that unlocks the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
- Gary Sanchez (5) ($4,700)
- Luis Arraez (1) ($5,300)
- Carlos Correa (3) ($5,400)
- Byron Buxton (2) ($6,100)
- Max Kepler (4) ($4,900)
Implied for 5.3 runs, the powerful top-of-the-order Twins lineup looks to be in a prime position at home. They are facing Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled this season, especially on the road. In 14.2 innings this season, Senzatela has a 6.75 ERA, 14.9% K Rate and 1.77 WHIP, and he is only projected for 3.83 strikeouts. Senzatela should have problems with a Twins lineup that does not miss the bat, posting an average 0.255 strikeouts-per-at-bat average.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. Despite the high $26,400 price tag, there is plenty of power and discipline here with the lineup posting a 0.319 wOBA.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model Saturday and are implied for a modest 4.3-implied run total, one of the highest on the slate. The five-man 1-2-3-4-6 stack of the Angels looks to be more of a boom-or-bust for Saturday, posting the highest strikeout-per-at-bat average with a tough matchup against Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert. Priced at $22,800 on DraftKings, this stack becomes an affordable option, with value plays in Jared Walsh and Luis Rengifo, which allow you to roster the essentially matchup-proof options in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani while producing a correlated roster.
Don’t sleep on the Angels Saturday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Daulton Varsho OF ($4,400 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Detroit Tigers (Alex Faedo)
Removing the Twins and Angels in search of possible one-off plays, Arizona Diamondbacks’ outfielder Daulton Varsho jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Varsho, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .234/.298/.402 and looks to have an ideal matchup facing rookie pitcher Alex Faedo of the Detroit Tigers, who in nine starts has a. 4.75 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. The Diamondbacks are implied for 4.8-runs and should rely on Varsho to kickstart the scoring, especially in Chase Field. At $4,400 on DraftKings, Varsho is affordable and offers a one-off upside, especially with lower-priced pitchers on the slate.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angels Dodgers (Mitch White)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit leadoff and looks to face Dodgers pitcher Mitch White, who should serve as the opener Saturday, followed by David Price. But we’re talking about Acuna — who should remain matchup-proof by slashing .282/.375/.460 with seven home runs on the season. He is worth the pay-up.
Riley Greene OF ($2,200 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies)
Detroit Tigers rookie Riley Greene projects as the top value on DraftKings in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Zach Davies. Look for Greene to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
Projected to bat second, Greene should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for Detroit, especially in the hitter-friendly venue of Chase Field, facing a veteran pitcher in Davies who is known for his tendency to blow up.
