The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features five games starting at 7:15 p.m. ET to kick-start a weekend of baseball action. Despite the smaller slate, there are plenty of spots to take advantage of.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jose Suarez ($6,500) Los Angeles Angels (NA) at Seattle Mariners
Saturday’s main slate is essentially devoid of brand-name aces, instead featuring plenty of value options.
Los Angeles Angels pitcher Jose Suarez stands out as a top option Saturday night, facing a Seattle Mariners lineup with a tendency to strike out. The Mariners have a projected lineup posting a 0.276 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Suarez has spent most of the season in between the major and minor leagues, starting five games in the majors while posting a 0-2 record with a 5.96 ERA, 17.6% K rate and a 1.85 WHIP. Suarez benefits from the ideal weather in Seattle, which comes in as the top Weather Rating for pitchers, with temperatures at T-Mobile Park forecast for the high 50s.
In an ideal matchup, it’s easy to look past the shaky start from Suarez, and with the discount, can open up higher-priced stacks.
Julio Urias ($9,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-237) at Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias looks to have an ideal matchup as the most expensive pitcher on the slate.
Cleveland has a slate-low 3.3-implied run total and should have difficulty facing the consistent Urias, who in 12 starts this season, has a 3-6 record with a 2.80 ERA, 21.9% K rate and 1.06 ERA. Urias is tagged for seven Pro Trends and despite facing a Cleveland offense with the lowest strikeout-per-at-bat average of 0.188, has tremendous upside (projected for 4.4 strikeouts and win-bonus probability).
MLB DFS Value Picks
Justus Sheffield ($5,600) Seattle Mariners (NA) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners pitcher Justus Sheffield comes in as a top value Saturday, making his first start of the season. Appearing in relief in four games this season, Sheffield has thrown 4.2 innings with a 12.5% K rate.
In a pitcher-friendly matchup in Seattle, Sheffield faces a still-struggling Angels lineup with a slate-high 0.286 strikeout-per-at-bat average. He becomes a fantasy-relevant option, projected for more than five strikeouts Saturday.
While it may be unclear how long Sheffield will go in his first start of the season, the deep discount unlocks an opportunity to stack higher-priced bats.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kutter Crawford ($5,900) Boston Red Sox (-116) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While certainly not a safe option, Boston Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford projects from one of the highest ceilings on the slate Saturday, as he squares off against the dangerous St. Louis Cardinals.
Saturday’s matchup looks to be a high-scoring affair, with a 10-run total at Fenway Park.
Crawford, a second-year pitcher, has made one start this season. He’s mostly come out of the bullpen, posting a 1-1 record with a 5.74 ERA, 28% K rate and a 1.79 WHIP.
Projected for 5.16 strikeouts and a discounted $5,900 salary on DraftKings, Crawford can certainly become a key that unlocks the slate Saturday, despite facing a Cardinals offense with the highest wOBA of 0.346 and a 0.232 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the San Diego Padres.
- Austin Nola (7) ($3,300)
- Luke Voit (4) ($4,000)
- Jake Cronenworth (2) ($5,400)
- Manny Machado (3) ($5,900)
- Jurickson Profar (1) ($4,400)
Coors Field highlights the slate Saturday night, and the Padres look to be a top stack option, implied for 6.1-runs. While not outrageous in pricing — coming in at $23,000 for a five-man stack — the Padres look to have an ideal matchup, facing German Marquez.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but with such a high total, I’m ok with skipping the 5-6 spots in favor of anchoring Austin Nola at the catcher position, who is projected to bat seventh.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
On the other side of the Coors Field matchup on Saturday, the Rockies look to be a viable option — and game-stacking is certainly on the table. The Rockies are implied for 5.7-runs and the hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 lineup should be the key to jumpstarting scoring.
With a $21,400 price tag, the Rockies are affordable and look to be in a great spot, facing Padres pitcher Nick Martinez, who in nine starts has a 2-3 record with a 3.74 ERA, 23.8% K rate and 1.39 WHIP. Surprisingly, Colorado has one of the highest wOBA at 0.330 and should make things difficult for Martinez.
Colorado is certainly a primary or secondary stack option on Saturday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Daulton Varsho OF ($4,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota Twins (Dylan Bundy)
Removing the Padres and Rockies in search of possible one-off plays, Arizona Diamondbacks utility player Daulton Varsho jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Varsho, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .247/.311/.429 and looks to have an ideal matchup facing Dylan Bundy in the hitter-friendly venue of Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are implied for 4.8-runs and should rely on Varsho to kick start the scoring.
Mookie Betts OF ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cleveland Guardians (Cal Quantrill)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling.
Scratched from Friday’s game, Betts is questionable to play Saturday with a rib injury. But if he slots into the lineup, he looks to have an ideal matchup against Guardians pitcher Cal Quantrill, who in 11 starts has a 3.38 ERA, 14.8% K rate and 1.18 WHIP.
Despite the high price tag on DraftKings, Betts and the Dodgers are a dangerous option on Saturday.
Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF ($2,900 DraftKings) Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondback (Luke Weaver)
Minnesota Twins utility player Alex Kirilloff projects as the top value on DraftKings. Look for Kirilloff to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
The second-year player — projected to hit sixth — was recently recalled from Triple-A. In 11 games this season, he’s hitting .167/.219/.167. He also should benefit from the hitter-friendly venue of Chase Field.
