The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features four games at 7:15 p.m. ET or later as we sprint toward the All-Star break. Despite weather issues across the country, Saturday’s main slate should play clean.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($8,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-275) vs. Chicago Cubs
Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers in an ideal matchup against the Chicago Cubs. Implied with a slate-low 3.1-runs, Chicago should have a tough outing against Kershaw, especially with a 0.287 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the highest on the slate.
Kershaw rates as one of the top pitchers on the slate and should continue his dominance Saturday. This season, in 10 starts, Kershaw has a 5-2 record with a 2.57 ERA, 26% K rate and a 1.05 WHIP. With a discounted price of $8,500 on DraftKings and projected for 7.12 strikeouts, Kershaw should easily become fantasy relevant, including the potential win-bonus upside.
Per the Trends tool, when at home and a favorite of -275 or greater, Kershaw averages 27.10 actual DraftKings points with a +5.41 Plus/Minus.
Kershaw may be the lock and load SP1.
Carlos Rodon ($8,400) San Franciso Giants (-109) vs. San Diego Padres
Similarly priced to Kershaw, San Francisco Giants ace Carlos Rodon also looks to be in an ideal matchup Saturday night, facing a surging San Diego Padres lineup.
Benefitting from the pitcher-friendly venue of Petco Park, Rodon is projected for a slate-high 7.65 strikeouts against a Padres lineup with a 0.266 strikeout-per-at-bat average. He’s also implied for 3.6-runs.
In his first season with the Giants, Rodon has a 7-5 record with a 2.87 ERA, 30.4% K rate and a 1.11 WHIP.
He should see inflated ownership given the ideal matchup on Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jordan Montgomery ($6,500) New York Yankees (-165) at Boston Red Sox
In a classic American League East rivalry, New York Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery projects as a top value play Saturday, facing the arch-rival Boston Red Sox.
After a mediocre start to the season, Montgomery has a 3-2 record in 16 starts, with a 3.19 ERA, 19.8% K rate and a 1.03 WHIP. On Saturday, he faces a disciplined projected Red Sox lineup with a 0.246 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.338 wOBA. Plus, he’s facing the team in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park.
Regardless, Montgomery is projected for 6.1 strikeouts, which should make him fantasy relevant, especially priced at $6,500 on DraftKings.
With plenty of value options at pitching, Montgomery should also come in at lower ownership, given the tough matchup.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Robbie Ray ($9,700) Seattle Mariners (-125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray faces his former team Saturday in the Toronto Blue Jays, and could be a sneaky option in GPPs.
With value options dominating the slate Saturday, Ray, who is the most expensive pitcher, could be a pivot from Kershaw and Rodon at SP1. In 17 starts this season, Ray has a 7-6 record with a 3.62 ERA, 27.7% K rate and a 1.12 WHIP, but faces a powerful projected Blue Jays lineup with a slate-low 0.201 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.338 wOBA.
Ray is projected for a modest 6.42 strikeouts and should benefit from the pitcher-friendly weather at T-Mobile Park, which has the highest Weather Rating on the slate.
Don’t be afraid to pay up at pitching on Saturday. Ray could be the key that unlocks the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Alejandro Kirk (4) ($4,800)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3) ($4,900)
- Bo Bichette (2) ($5,500)
- George Springer (1) ($4,700)
- Teoscar Hernandez (5) ($4,200)
Implied for a respectable 3.7 runs, the powerful top-of-the-order Blue Jays lineup is one of the more feared lineups in the majors. They’re facing former teammate Robbie Ray, in what could be a difficult matchup. However, the Blue Jays are disciplined at the plate, with a slate low 0.201 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.338 wOBA, both the highest on the slate
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and at $24,000 on DraftKings, the Blue Jays look to be a more attainable stack given the amount of value at pitching.
Weather conditions, aside, look at the Blue Jays to potentially go off Saturday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model Saturday and are implied for 5.1-implied run total, one of the highest on the slate.
The five-man 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Dodgers is one of the best in the majors and is expected to face Drew Smyly, who should be activated from the injured list. This is a prime matchup for the Dodgers, as the veteran Smyly has a 2-5 record in nine starts this season with a 3.80 ERA, 18% K rate and 1.27 WHIP. Priced at $25,400 on DraftKings, this stack becomes an expensive option with plenty of power against a struggling pitcher.
The runs should come in bulk for the Dodgers on Saturday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ha-Seong Kim 3B/SS ($2,900 DraftKings) San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (Carlos Rodon)
Removing the Blue Jays and Dodgers in search of possible one-off plays, San Diego Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Kim, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .236/.325/.357, but looks to have a difficult matchup against Carlos Rodon, the San Francisco Giants ace with a 7-5 record, 2.87 ERA, 30.4% K rate and 1.11 WHIP.
The Padres are implied for 3.6 runs and should rely on Kim and their powerful lineup to kickstart the scoring, which is needed in a pitcher-friendly venue such as Petco Park. At $2,900 on DraftKings, Kim is affordable and offers a one-off upside, especially with lower-priced pitchers on the slate.
Aaron Judge OF ($5,900 DraftKings) New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit second and looks to face Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford, which should be an ideal matchup in a rivalry game and in a hitter-friendly venue such as Fenway Park. Judge — and the surging Yankees lineup — should remain matchup-proof, as he’s slashing .282/.363/.617 with 30 home runs on the season.
He’s worth the pay-up.
LaMonte Wade OF ($2,600 DraftKings) San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish)
San Francisco Giants outfielder LaMonte Wade projects as the top value on DraftKings, in what looks to be a prime matchup against Yu Darvish. Look for Wade to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
Projected to bat leadoff, Wade should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for the Giants, even in the pitcher-friendly venue of Petco Park.
