The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
To kick off the first weekend after the All-Star break, Saturday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Keep an eye on the weather in Pittsburgh, which may have delay issues because of rain.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,400) New York Yankees (-240) at Baltimore Orioles
As the most expensive pitcher on Saturday’s slate, Gerrit Cole jumps to the top of the Tournament Model as one of the highest-rated pitchers.
In what looks to be an ideal matchup, Cole faces a Baltimore Orioles team with a 3.4-implied run total, one of the lowest on the slate. Projected for a slate-high 8.59 strikeouts, Cole certainly is a lock-and-load SP1 option on DraftKings, especially when facing a projected Orioles lineup with a 0.248 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
In the midst of a dominant 2022 campaign, Cole has a 3.02 ERA in 19 starts with a 9-2 record, 32.9% K rate and a 0.98 WHIP.
Per the Trends Tool, when a -240 favorite or greater on the road, Cole averages 23.28 actual DraftKings points and a +3.39 Plus/Minus.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,000) Milwaukee Brewers (-286) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Milwaukee Brewers own one of the more dominant rotations in the majors, and Brandon Woodruff is a key factor to the team’s success.
As a spend-down option from Cole, Woodruff also looks to be in a smash spot Saturday, facing a slumping Rockies lineup with a slate-low 2.9-runs. Woodruff is projected for 6.34 strikeouts and should remain a fantasy-relevant option, especially with win-bonus upside.
In 13 starts this season, Woodruff is one of the top arms in the majors, posting a 7-3 record with a 3.93 ERA, 30.2% K rate and a 1.19 WHIP.
Don’t sleep on Woodruff to possibly put up a ceiling outcome on Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lance Lynn ($7,200) Chicago White Sox (NA) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox ace Lance Lynn projects as a top value on Saturday, despite a tough matchup against a disciplined Cleveland Guardians lineup. Despite less-than-ideal numbers — a 1-3 record in seven starts with a 7.50 ERA, 21.1% K rate and a 1.50 WHIP — Lynn is projected for 6.26 strikeouts and priced at a discounted $7,200 on DraftKings.
Lynn can certainly open up salary relief for higher-priced stacks in what may be a get-right spot for the veteran.
He’s a risky choice against a Guardians lineup with a 0.224 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.340 wOBA.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Chris Bassitt ($9,400) New York Mets (-151) vs. San Diego Padres
New York Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt looks to be a lower-owned option, as he’s projected for one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Bassitt, who in 17 starts has a 7-6 record with a 3.71 ERA, 24.9% K rate and a 1.15 WHIP, looks to have a decent matchup against the San Diego Padres, who are implied for 3.5 runs, one of the lowest on the slate.
Projected for 6.16 strikeouts, Bassitt can certainly exceed expectations and produce an 85th-percentile outcome, even when facing a disciplined Padres lineup with a 0.242 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the lowest on the slate.
With a win-bonus upside, Bassitt is definitely worth the pivot from higher-priced aces.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the New York Yankees.
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($5,200)
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($5,000)
- Matt Carpenter (5) ($5,500)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($6,200)
- Giancarlo Stanton (4) ($5,500)
Implied for 5.3 runs — the highest on the slate — the powerful top-of-the-order Yankees lineup is one of the more feared units in the majors. They’re facing Orioles pitcher Jordan Lyles, an ideal matchup vs. a pitcher who has a 4.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
However, the Yankees are disciplined at the plate, with a 0.241 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.341 wOBA, the highest on the slate.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and at a sky-high price tag of $27,400 on DraftKings, playing the Yankees might mean pivoting to less-than-ideal arms.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model on Saturday.
The five-man 2-3-4-5-6 stack of the Guardians is one of the best in the majors. They’re expected to face Lance Lynn, who — despite brand-name appeal — has struggled in seven starts, posting a 1-3 record with a 7.50 ERA, 21.1% K rate and 1.50 WHIP.
Priced at $22,300 on DraftKings, this stack becomes a value option, with plenty of power against a struggling pitcher.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
Removing the Yankees and Guardians in search of possible one-off plays, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Acuna, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .262/.361/.408, and looks to face Patrick Sandoval, who in 15 starts has an 3-5 record with a 3.00 ERA, 24.2% K rate and 1.43 WHIP.
The Braves are implied for 5.1 runs, and should rely on Acuna and their powerful lineup to kickstart the scoring. At $5,900 on DraftKings, Acuna is expensive and offers a one-off upside.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves (Kyle Wright)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit leadoff and looks to face Braves pitcher Kyle Wright, which should be a tough matchup on the road. But we’re talking about Ohtani, who is virtually matchup-proof, slashing .256/.347/.482 with 19 home runs.
He’s worth the pay-up.
Alek Thomas OF ($2,900 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals (Anibal Sanchez)
Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Alek Thomas projects as the top value on DraftKings in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Anibal Sanchez and the Washington Nationals. Look for Thomas to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
Projected to bat second, Thomas should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for the Diamondbacks, who are implied for five-runs on Saturday.
