The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features five games with an early 6:07 p.m. start for total holiday weekend enjoyment. Despite the smaller slate, there are plenty of spots to take advantage of.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Yu Darvish ($10,200) San Diego Padres (+130) at Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres ace Yu Darvish rates as one of the highest arms in the Tournament Model Saturday, facing a tough Los Angeles Dodgers lineup with a 4.2-run implied total. Darvish remains one of the more dominant arms in the league, posting a 7-3 record in 14 starts with a 21.3% K rate and a 0.98 WHIP. He is projected for a slate-high 6.47 strikeouts against a disciplined Dodgers team with a 0.251 strikeout-per-at-bat average and 0.319 wOBA. As the most expensive pitcher on the slate–priced at $10,200 on DraftKings, Darvish will need a stellar outing Saturday night while relying on the pitcher-friendly venue of Petco Park.
Nestor Cortes ($9,600) New York Yankees (-158) at Cleveland Guardians
Seeing a $700 discount in price during the course of last month, New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes looks to be a solid option for Saturday’s slate against the Cleveland Guardians. Cortes has had a dominant first half of the season, posting a 6-3 record in 14 starts with a 2.51 ERA, 27%K rate and a 0.99 WHIP. Cortes, who is projected for 4.83 strikeouts, looks to face a more disciplined Guardians lineup with a slate-low 0.209 strikeout-per-at-bat average, 0.306 wOBA, and a 3.9-implied run total, which is one of the lowest on the slate. Despite the tough matchup, Cortes is an affordable option at SP1 and has a win-bonus upside. He should also benefit from the environment of Progressive Field, which has the highest Park Factor rating Saturday.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Thomas Hatch ($5,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-245) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Thomas Hatch is expected to start the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader against the Tampa Bay Rays. Making his major-league debut, Hatch has started 12 times in Triple-A this season, posting a 4-4 record with a 5.12 ERA, 20% K rate and. 1.36 WHIP. While the outlying numbers might not look appealing, Hatch has an extremely discounted salary at $5,200 and is projected for 4.75 strikeouts against a strikeout-prone projected Rays lineup with a 0.31 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which should make him a viable fantasy option. While it is unclear how long the Hatch will stay in the game for his debut, the salary relief as an SP2 should create breathing room for higher-priced stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Josh Winckowski ($7,600) Boston Red Sox (-154) at Chicago Cubs
When sorting by ceiling, Boston Red Sox rookie pitcher Josh Winckowski projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. He should come in with lower-than-expected ownership against the Chicago Cubs in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Winckowski has put up decent numbers in his first year in the majors, posting a 3-1 record in four starts with a 3.60 ERA, 15% K rate and a 1.45 WHIP.
Despite the high 4.6-implied run total for the Cubs, tonight’s matchup rates as one of the highest Weather Ratings in the model, with temperatures in the low 70s and the wind blowing left to right. Chicago also has one of the highest strikeout-per-at-bat averages of 0.263, which should allow Winckowski to be a viable fantasy option with high strikeout upside.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- C.J. Cron (4) ($5,000)
- Brendan Rodgers (5) ($4,400)
- Yonathan Daza (2) ($2,700)
- Connor Joe (1) ($3,800)
- Kris Bryant (3) ($4,100)
Implied for 6.6 runs, the highest on the slate, the powerful top-of-the-order Rockies lineup looks to be in a prime position at home. They are facing Dallas Keuchel, who has struggled this season, and is known as a contact pitcher. In nine starts this season, Keuchel has a 2-5 record with a 7.93 ERA, 14.5% K rate and a 2.15 WHIP.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and at $20,000 on DraftKings, it seems there might be a misprice on a disciplined team with a 0.215 strikeout-per-at-bat average. Don’t sleep on the Rockies Saturday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model Saturday and are implied for a modest 4.8-implied run total, one of the highest on the slate. The five-man 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Yankees looks to be more of a boom-or-bust for Saturday, posting the a high 0.258 strikeout-per-at-bat average. They are expected to face Aaron Civale, who had his start pushed back due to weather. This is a prime matchup for the Yankees as Civale has a 2-4 record in nine starts this season with a 7.20 ERA, 20% K rate and 1.60 WHIP. Priced at $23,800 on DraftKings, this stack becomes an affordable option with plenty of power against a struggling pitcher.
The runs should come in bulk for the Yankees Saturday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jordan Luplow OF ($2,300 DraftKings) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
Removing the Yankees and Rockies in search of possible one-off plays, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jordan Luplow jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Luplow, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .158/.265/.439 and looks to have an ideal matchup against pitcher Austin Gomber of the Colorado Rockies, who in 12 starts has a. 6.55 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. The Diamondbacks are implied for 5.7 runs and should rely on Luplow to kickstart the scoring, especially at Coors Field. At $2,300 on DraftKings, Luplow is affordable and offers a one-off upside, especially with lower-priced pitchers on the slate.
Trea Turner SS ($5,600 DraftKings) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Trea Turner should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit leadoff and looks to face Padres pitcher Yu Darvish, which should be a tough matchup. But we’re talking about Turner — who should remain matchup-proof by slashing .306/.352/.485 with 11 home runs on the season. He is worth the pay-up.
Carson Kelly C ($2,000 DraftKings) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
Arizona Diamonbacks catcher Carson Kelly projects as the top value on DraftKings in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Austin Gomber. Look for Kelly to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
Projected to bat second, Kelly should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for Arizona, especially in the hitter-friendly venue of Coors Field versus a pitcher in Gomber who is known for his tendency to blow up.
