The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s huge main slate features 11 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later as teams make a push toward October.
As of this morning, there looks to be a potential for rain in Minnesota so be sure to keep an eye on the weather.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($9,600) Milwaukee Brewers (-200) vs Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff jumps to the top of our models Saturday as one of the highest-rated pitchers, in what appears to be an ideal matchup against the Chicago Cubs. The righty has started 19 games this season, posting a 9-3 record with 3.51 ERA, 28.8% K rate and a 1.15 WHIP as part of the feared Brewers starting rotation. Chicago has noticeably struggled at the plate this season, with their lineup posting a 0.276 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate and are implied for 3.2-runs. Woodruff should be a popular option Saturday and should be fantasy-viable, projected for 6.93 strikeouts and as a massive -200 favorite, has win-bonus upside.
Per the Trends tool, when a -200 home favorite or greater, Woodruff averages 24.29 actual DraftKings points and a +7.84 Plus/Minus. At SP1, this might not be a spot to overthink.
Yu Darvish ($10,400) San Diego Padres (-228) at Kansas City Royals
One of the more expensive pitching options on the slate, San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish comes in as a massive -228 road favorite and rates among the top pitchers.
Darivish has shown dominance for the Padres this season, posting a 10-7 record in 23 starts, with a 3.39 ERA, 24.8% K rate and a 0.99 WHIP. Saturday’s matchup looks ideal for Darvish, facing a Royals lineup with a 3.5-implied run total and a slate-high 7.48 K prediction. While it might seem like a lock and load position for Darvish, the Nationals have a 0.274 strikeout-per-at-bat average, one of the highest on the slate.
Like Woodruff, Darvish looks to be a popular option but may be worth the spend-up, despite a less-than-ideal park in Kauffman Stadium.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,300) Detroit Tigers (-114) at Texas Rangers
Priced at a discounted $7,300 on DraftKings, Detroit Tigers pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez looks to be a top value on the slate Saturday.
Rodriguez is facing a Texas Rangers lineup with a 0.244 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 4.1-implied run total. Projected for 5.85 strikeouts, E-Rod should easily be a fantasy-relevant option, given the deep discount on DraftKings. In nine starts, Williams has a 2-3 record with a 3.89 ERA, 20.4% K rate, and a 1.34 WHIP.
If Rodriguez can minimize the damage from the Rangers lineup, he is an easy choice to unlock access to higher-priced stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jose Urquidy ($8,900) Houston Astros (-184) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros pitcher Jose Urquidy could be an overlooked option on Saturday’s slate and projects for one of the highest ceilings. Making 23 starts this season, the righty Urquidy has a 12-4 record with a 3.63 ERA, an 18.9% K rate, and a 1.13 WHIP. One of the feel-good stories of the season, Baltimore is implied for 3.5-runs and has a 0.259 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which should be an ideal matchup, especially if he can depend on the powerful Astros offense to generate runs.
Keep Urquidy in consideration as a viable SP1 option, with slight savings in salary and win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Houston Astros.
- Yuli Gurriel (2) ($3,100)
- Jose Altuve (1) ($5,500)
- Alex Bregman (4) ($5,000)
- Yordan Alvarez (3) ($5,700)
- Kyle Tucker (5) ($4,600)
Implied for 4.6 runs — one of the highest on the slate, the Houston Astros look to be a top stack Saturday. The powerful Astros are facing Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer, who has struggled this season, posting a 5-4 record in 14 starts with a 3.45 ERA, an 18.9% K rate, and a 1.30 WHIP.
The Astros are disciplined at the plate, with a 0.227 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.325 wOBA, one of the highest on the slate, and should make easy work against an ineffective pitcher
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. A price tag of $23,900 on DraftKings seems like an affordable opportunity for a team that should generate runs on demand.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondback bats are an interesting choice and look to be a spend-down to popular options and are implied for a respectable four runs.
They’re expected to face Davis Martin of the Chicago White Sox, a rookie pitcher who has made four starts this season, posting a 2-3 record with a 4.25 ERA, 17.4% K rate and a 1.19 WHIP, throwing only 36 pitches. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks are a disciplined lineup, posting a 0.226 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.307 wOBA and look to have the potential to make easy work of an inexperienced pitcher.
Priced at $19,900 on DraftKings, this stack becomes a somewhat cheap option, which can unlock higher-priced arms.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($4,100 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly)
Removing the Astros and Diamondbacks in search of possible one-off plays, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Yelich, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .254/.356/.375 with nine home runs and looks to have an ideal matchup against veteran Drew Smyly, who has made 17 starts this season with a 3.47 ERA, 20.3% K rate, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 5-7 record.
The Brewers are implied for 4.5 runs and should rely on Yelich to kickstart the scoring. At $4,100 on DraftKings, Yelich offers an expensive one-off upside.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics (Adam Oller)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling in our models.
The superstar is projected to hit second against Athletics pitcher Adam Ollier, an ideal matchup for a virtually matchup-proof Judge, who is slashing .297/.397/.665 with 49 home runs.
He’s worth the pay-up.
Tommy La Stella 1B/3B ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,100 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins (Sonny Gray)
San Francisco Giants outfielder Tommy La Stella projects as the top value on DraftKings in a matchup against Sonny Gray and the Minnesota Twins. Look for La Stella to be a one-off play as a minimum-priced leadoff hitter.
La Stella should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for the Twins, who are implied for 3.6 runs Saturday and should be a fantasy-viable option, slashing .255/.291/.379 with two home runs.
Photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/Getty Images.
Pictured: Brandon Woodruff
