The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later as teams make a push toward October.
As of this morning, there looks to be a potential for rain in Pittsburgh, Denver, and Atlanta, so be sure to keep an eye on the weather.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Logan Gilbert ($8,000) Seattle Mariners (-185) at Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariner pitcher Logan Gilbert jumps to the top of our MLB Models and rates as one of the best pitchers on Saturday’s slate.
Gilbert, who in 24 starts has a 10-5 record with a 3.51 ERA, 22% K rate, and a 1.24 WHIP, looks to have an ideal matchup against the struggling Oakland Athletics, who have a 3.1-implied run total, one of the lowest on the slate. Projected for 6.3 strikeouts, the highest on the slate, and priced at an affordable $8,000 price tag on DraftKings, Gilbert should be a popular choice at SP1, facing an Oakland lineup with a 0.291 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the highest on the slate, and a 0.288 wOBA.
Look for Gilbert as an easy choice at SP1 for Saturday, which should create savings for higher-priced stacks.
Joe Musgrove ($10,100) San Diego Padres (-330) vs. Washington Nationals
One of the more expensive pitching options on the slate, San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove comes in as a massive -330 home favorite and rates among the top pitchers.
Musgrove has shown consistency for the Padres this season, posting an 8-6 record in 21 starts, with a 2.98 ERA, 24% K rate and a 1.03 WHIP. Saturday’s matchup looks ideal for Musgrove, facing a Nationals lineup with slate-low 2.7-implied runs and a 6.21 K Prediction. While it might seem like a lock and load position for Musgrove, the Nationals have a 0.216 strikeout-per-at-bat average, one of the lowest on the slate.
Per the Trends tool, when a home favorite, Musgrove averages 18.36 DraftKings points and a +4.02 Plus/Minus and should be worth the spend up.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Trevor Williams ($6,700) New York Mets (NA) at Philadelphia Phillies
Priced at a discounted $6,700 on DraftKings, New York Mets pitcher Trevor Williams looks to be a top value on the slate Saturday.
Williams is facing a powerful Philadelphia Phillies lineup with a 0.266 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.313 wOBA. Projected for 5.19 strikeouts, Williams should easily be a fantasy-relevant option, given the deep discount on DraftKings. In eight starts, Williams has a 2-5 record with a 3.02 ERA, 21.6% K rate, and a 1.16 WHIP.
If Williams can minimize the damage from a vaunted Phillies lineup, he is an easy choice to unlock access to higher-priced stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Spencer Strider ($9,700) Atlanta Braves (-152) vs. Houston Astros
Atlanta Braves standout Spencer Strider could be an overlooked option on Saturday’s slate and projects for one of the highest ceilings. Making 14 starts this season, Strider has a 7-4 record with a 3.04 ERA, a 37.2% K rate, and a 1.04 WHIP. The second-year starter has a tough matchup, facing a Houston Astros lineup with a slate-low 0.209 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.340 wOBA, and is only projected for 4.74 strikeouts. However, Saturday’s matchup looks like a pitcher’s duel, with the Astros implied for only 3.6 runs. Despite the tough matchup, if Strider can produce an 85th-percentile outcome, it could be vital to winning the slate.
Keep Strider in consideration as a viable SP1 option, with slight savings in salary and win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the San Francisco Giants.
- LaMonte Wade (1) ($2,800)
- Joc Pederson (2) ($4,300)
- Wilmer Flores (3) ($4,100)
- Brandon Belt (4) ($3,000)
- Mike Yastrzemski (5) ($4,100)
Implied for 6.4 runs — the highest on the slate — one side of a Coors’ field matchup looks to be in an ideal spot Saturday. The Giants are facing Rockies pitcher Ryan Feltner, who has struggled this season, posting a 2-4 record in 10 starts with a 6.39 ERA, a 19.2% K rate, and a 1.48 WHIP.
The Giants are disciplined at the plate, with a 0.248 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.322 wOBA, one of the highest on the slate, and should make easy work in the most hitter-friendly venue in the majors.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. A price tag of $17,300 on DraftKings seems like a mispriced opportunity for a team that should generate runs on demand.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model on Saturday.
The five-man 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Dodgers is one of the best in the majors. They’re expected to face Braxton Garrett of the Miami Marlins, which looks to be an ideal matchup, making 13 starts with a 2-6 record, a 3.67 ERA, a 24.5% K rate, and a 1.21 WHIP. The Dodgers are disciplined at the plate, posting a 0.225 strikeout-per-at-bat average, one of the lowest on the slate, and a 0.334 wOBA. Add it all up, and they’re implied for a massive 5.1 runs at home.
Priced at $27,100 on DraftKings, this stack becomes a somewhat expensive option for a matchup outside of Denver.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Charlie Blackmon OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants (Alex Cobb)
Removing the Dodgers and Giants in search of possible one-off plays, Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Blackmon, who is projected to bat second, is slashing .264/.325/.439 with 16 home runs and should benefit from Coors Field, despite a tough matchup against Giants pitcher Alex Cobb, who has made 19 starts this season with a 3.99 ERA, 25% K rate, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 4-6 record.
The Rockies are implied for 4.9 runs and should rely on Blackmon to kickstart the scoring. At $4,900 on DraftKings, Blackmon offers an expensive one-off upside.
Juan Soto OF ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Washington National (Josiah Gray)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, San Diego Padres outfielder Juan Soto should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling in our models.
The superstar is projected to hit second against his former team and pitcher Josiah Gray, an ideal matchup for a virtually matchup-proof Soto, who is slashing .251/.413/.477 with 22 home runs.
He’s worth the pay-up.
Tucupita Marcano OF ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds (Justin Dunn)
Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Tucupita Marcano projects as the top value on DraftKings in an excellent matchup against Justin Dunn and the Cincinnati Reds. Look for Marcano to be a one-off play as a minimum-priced leadoff hitter.
Marcano should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for the Pirates, who are implied for 4.6 runs Saturday and should be a fantasy-viable option, slashing .219/.276/.325 with two home runs.
