The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features five games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($9,600) Houston Astros (-119) at Los Angeles Angels
After missing the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander is slated to start in the third game of the opening series against the Los Angeles Angels with a series win on the line. Verlander is far and away the top option on the main slate, projected for 8.12 strikeouts against an Angels squad seeing .272 strikeouts per at-bat average, which is the second-highest on the slate. Verlander also rates as the top pitcher in our Tournament Model, coming in with a 71.30 rating.
In his last full season, Verlander ranked second among qualified starters in K Rate (35.4%) and was first in WHIP (0.80).
A big question mark surrounds how deep Verlander will go in his first outing since 2020. Our models project him to pitch around 73 pitches, which could be underwhelming considering Verlander is the most expensive arm on the slate. With a Vegas total of 4.3 for the Angels, spending up for Verlander is in play, especially on a slate without big-name studs.
Joe Musgrove ($9,400) San Diego Padres (-166) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected as a popular option on DraftKings, San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove looks to be in an ideal matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Musgrove has the best Vegas data on the slate, with a -166 moneyline and the Diamondbacks having a 4.1 implied total.
We’re expecting Musgrove to be one of the deeper options on the slate, projecting him to throw around 91 pitches and 5.75 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks are projected to have the lowest wOBA on the slate at 0.190 and a strikeout to at-bat average of 0.202.
Last season, Musgrove posted a 27% K rate and a 1.08 WHIP in his first season with the Padres, and despite the hitter-friendly venue of Chase Field, expect Musgrove to have a dominant performance Saturday night.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Joan Adon ($4,000) Washington Nationals (+128) vs. New York Mets
Washington National pitcher Joan Adon projects as the top value on the slate, seeing a +7.29 Projected Plus/Minus and a 3.1 point-per-dollar projection. Making his debut during the 2021 season, Adon pitched one game, going 5.1 innings and striking out nine batters.
While Adon’s underlying projections are outstanding (currently projected for 12.32 DraftKings Points and a 16-point ceiling), at a $4,000 salary, the second-year pitcher offers a deep discount, especially in a mediocre park in Nationals Park (58 Park Factor).
Playing Adon might not be comfortable, especially with the Mets implied for 5.3 runs, but with 5.03 projected strikeouts and likely seeing around 90 pitches, Adon should be considered a viable SP2 option on DraftKings, opening up for pricier stacks and projected for middling ownership.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Vladimir Gutierrez ($6,500) Cincinnati Reds (+142) vs. Atlanta Braves
At low projected ownership, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez comes in as one of the highest-leveraged pitchers on the slate, projected for a 68% Leverage Score. With Coors Field on the slate, salary relief will come at a premium and Gutierrez has the potential to cause chaos by paying off his salary by quieting a few Braves bats. Tonight’s game at Truist Field rates as the top weather game for pitchers, with nighttime temperatures to be in the 50s, which might keep the ball in the park.
With a high Bargain Rating (82%), Gutierrez should be able to give rosters the flexibility to incorporate pricier bats. But, like Adon, Guiterrez is not a comfortable play. Last season in 22 starts, Guiterrez posted a 4.74 ERA and a 17.7% K rate, and facing a Braves team implied for 5.7 runs might prove to be a difficult task for the second-year starter.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Will Smith (6) ($4,200)
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($4,800)
- Justin Turner (5) ($3,900)
- Mookie Betts (1) ($5,100)
- Cody Bellinger (7) ($2,600)
After a 5-3 win Friday night, The Dodgers look to be in a prime spot to score runs in the hitter-friendly park of Coors’ field. Implied for a 6.7 run total, the Dodgers should have no problem putting up runs against Rockies pitcher German Marquez. Marquez, who last season posted a 4.40 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP might not have the best night, facing the high-powered Dodgers lineup in the top-rated park and in a top-rated weather game for batters.
This combination of players is certainly unconventional and could give you a unique build compared to other Dodgers stacks out there.
Be prepared to spend money on the Dodgers stacks tonight, with a five-man stack likely costing you upward of $20k.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling again belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
At $23,900, a five-man stack of the Dodgers is very pricey, likely creating a situation where players might have to forgo a stud arm, hoping a mid-range arm ends up being the top pitcher on the slate. It’s hard to ignore the Dodgers tonight, with a run total of more than six and playing in Coors against a pitcher who has a historical propensity for getting rocked (pun intended).
Personally, I like to keep my hitter “gaps” to one or less and the top ceiling lineup featuring the 1-2-3-4-6 (skipping Justin Turner at five) hitters almost ensures I’ll be able to get the most at-bats.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Trent Grisham OF ($3,900 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies)
The Padres have an ideal matchup Saturday night at Chase Field, facing Zach Davies, who has historical underperformed. A career 4.14 ERA pitcher and a 17% K rate, Davies does not get help from the hitter-friendly venue of Chase and the Padres bats should prove to give him a more difficult outing.
Despite a more hefty price tag at $3,900 on DraftKings, Padres outfielder Trent Grisham projects for the highest Plus/Minus among outfielders. Per the Trends tool, leadoff batters in a park factor higher than 50 average 8.54 actual DraftKings points and a +0.89 Plus/Minus.
With top-of-the-order batters often seeing more plate attempts, Grisham makes an ideal play, especially with the Padres likely putting up runs, currently implied for 5.1 runs.
Robinson Cano 2B ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) New York Mets at Washington Nationals (Joan Adon)
Veteran second baseman Robinson Cano looks to be one of the best bargains on the slate, posting a 73% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. The Mets have one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 5.3 runs and are facing a second-year pitcher with limited big-league experience in Joan Adon. Cano is projected to bat fifth, firmly putting him in the heart of the Mets lineup, likely wedged between two power hitters in Pete Alonso and Mark Canha.
Despite less-than-ideal weather, look for a Cano to anchor a Mets stack as a value option.
