The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Saturday’s slate features an extremely mediocre group of pitchers. There is no real ace to speak of, with no one priced above $9,000 on DraftKings. Only five pitchers are priced above $7,900, so it’s fair to say there’s no real “stud” on this slate.
The battle for the top spot likely comes down to Charlie Morton and Jordan Montgomery. Neither player stands out from a Vegas perspective, with Morton squaring off with the Padres and Montgomery battling the Brewers. Both teams are implied for just over four runs, and both pitchers are listed as roughly -155 favorites.
However, the Brewers had a big problem hitting southpaws last season. They were just 22nd in that split in terms of wRC+, and they also posted the third-highest strikeout rate. They’ve been improved against left-handers to start the year, but their strikeout rate remains extremely high. They’ve whiffed in 28.8% of their plate appearances against left-handers, so Montgomery has a bit more upside than usual.
Montgomery also looked like a different pitcher after joining the Cardinals last season. He posted a 3.11 ERA and a 3.08 FIP across 11 starts, both of which represented marked improvements over his numbers with the Yankees. He also averaged an additional strikeout per nine innings. It’s possible that was just a small sample size glitch, but the Cardinals are known for getting the best out of pitchers. Montgomery didn’t look particularly impressive in his first start of the year, but it should surprise no one if he turns in a career year for the Red Birds.
Both Montgomery and Morton are projected very similarly in THE BAT, but Montgomery stands out as the superior option given his cheaper price tag.
MLB DFS Value Picks
The Yankees and Orioles are both known as offensive teams, but their matchup has the lowest total on the slate at just 8.0 runs. Both of their pitchers are extremely affordable across the industry, so they stand out as strong value targets.
Cole Irvin is a slight underdog in that matchup, but he owns the stronger projections in our MLB Models. He spent last year toiling away for the lowly A’s, but he posted respectable marks on the mound. Specifically, he posted a 3.98 ERA, although that number was bolstered by pitching half his games in a very friendly home ballpark.
Irvin was roughed up in his first outing with the Orioles, but there were some positives. He didn’t give up a ton of hard contact, with opposing batters managing just a 25% hard hit rate and averaging an 86.6 mile-per-hour exit velocity. Both of those marks are above average, which suggests he was a bit unlucky.
Irvin isn’t going to generate a ton of swing-and-misses, but the Yankees have been known to whiff on occasion. More importantly, the weather in this matchup should be extremely favorable for pitchers, leading the slate with a Weather Rating of 96.
It’s hard to get too excited about playing a mediocre pitcher like Irvin — especially against a potent lineup — but he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin. He’s not going to need to do much to return value, especially on a slate with limited options.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
On the other side of that matchup, Jhony Brito looked very impressive in his first career MLB outing. He pitched five scoreless innings with six strikeouts while surrendering just two hits and one walk. Brito also had an impressive Spring Training, pitching to a 2.08 ERA across 13 innings, and he had a 2.96 across Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s not considered a premier prospect, entering the year 15th in the Yankees’ organization per FanGraphs, but it’s possible that he’s better than the scouts think. He’s not quite as safe as Irvin, but he brings a bit more upside to the table.
Targeting a pitcher at Coors Field is almost never advised, but this slate could be an exception. Austin Gomber stands out at just $6,100 on DraftKings against a mediocre Nationals lineup. The Nats went off for 10 runs at Coors Field on Friday, but Irvin isn’t a terrible pitcher. His advanced metrics were way more impressive than his traditional ERA last season, and he ranks in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity and 92 percentile in hard hit rate to start the new year. The Nationals have the potential to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this season, so he could be worth using in GPPs on a slate with no sure things at pitcher.
Eric Lauer is projected for minimal ownership on this slate, but he’s arguably the best strikeout pitcher besides Morton. He averaged 8.91 strikeouts per nine innings last season, and he whiffed six batters over 5.1 innings in his first start of the year. His Vegas data is dreadful vs. a Cardinals’ offense that hits left-handers well, but his K Prediction ranks second on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack using THE BAT X when optimizing by projected points belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Coors Field did not disappoint on Friday, with the Rockies and Nationals combining for 15 runs. It should be a popular game to stack again on Saturday. The total currently sits at 11.0 runs, and the Rockies’ implied team total of 6.0 ranks first on the slate by more than half a run.
Stacking the top-five batters in the Rockies’ lineup will likely be one of the most popular combinations, but it is very affordable for Coors Field. It costs less than $5,000 per play, which is cheaper than the top hitters for the Braves, Dodgers, and Blue Jays.
The Rockies are facing right-hander Trevor Williams, who has been a replacement-level starter for most of his career. His numbers improved with the Mets last season, but he was used primarily out of the bullpen. He surrendered four runs and two homers in his first start of the season, so this is a matchup the Rockies’ hitters can take advantage of.
Williams was particularly vulnerable against left-handed batters last season. He allowed a .376 wOBA in that split, which was more than 100 points worse than his mark against righties. That gives a boost to guys like Jurickson Profar, Charlie Blackmon, and Ryan McMahon.
Of the trio, McMahon stands out as my favorite. McMahon was excellent against right-handers last season, particularly when playing at Coors Field. He posted a 123 wRC+, and 12 of his 20 homers came in that split.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Alex Call OF ($3,000 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
While the Rockies are cheap for a Coors’ offense, the Nationals are a downright steal. They only have one hitter priced above $3,700 on DraftKings, and they have five projected starters at $3,000 or less. That includes Call, who is expected to bat second against Gomber. Call homered in yesterday’s contest, and he’s off to a solid start at the dish. He’s posted a 107 wRC+ across his first 26 plate appearances, and while that may not continue, $3,000 is simply too cheap considering his lineup spot. Historically, players with a comparable salary and a top-three spot in the batting order have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.69 at Coors Field (per the Trends tool). He leads all hitters in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus using the blended projections.
Corbin Carroll OF ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Noah Syndergaard)
I remain extremely bullish on Carroll for fantasy purposes. He’s a true five-tool player, and he launched his second homer of the year in Friday’s win over the Dodgers. He also has three steals on the year, and he has a great chance to pick up at least one more on Saturday. Noah Syndergaard has historically been one of the easiest pitchers in baseball to run against, and the new rules aren’t going to help him. Carroll also has outstanding numbers against right-handers since reaching the majors, so he should be able to get on base. If he does, expect him to have the green light.
Mike Brousseau 1B/3B ($2,200 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery)
I’m a sucker for a cheap leadoff hitter, and Brosseau should fit that description on Saturday. He’ll also be on the positive side of his splits against Montgomery, and Brosseau posted a 117 wRC+ against southpaws last season. He didn’t hit for a ton of power in those matchups, but he posted a solid .274 average.
