The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features seven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET to kickstart a weekend of baseball action.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,000) New York Yankees (-215) at Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole seems to have turned around a slow start to the season. In a 10-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians last Sunday, Cole pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing four hits and striking out nine. Cole and the Yankees are massive -215 road moneyline favorites against the Royals, who are implied for 3.1 runs. The Yankees ace rates as one of the highest pitchers in our Tournament Model and should have a stellar outing, projected for 7.48 strikeouts against a projected Royals lineup with a 0.256 strikeout-per-at-bat average
With plenty of big-name arms, Cole looks to be a safe pick for an SP1, also benefitting from the highest Park Factor Rating from Kauffman Stadium.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,300) Los Angeles Dodgers (-350) vs. Detroit Tigers
Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is the most expensive arm on the slate, and for good reasons. The Dodgers are massive -350 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers, who have the lowest implied run total at 2.9 runs. Kershaw leads all pitchers on the slate with seven Pro Trends, including playing in the pitcher-friendly venue of Dodger Stadium at night. Despite the high $10,300 price tag on DraftKings, Kershaw has tremendous upside, projected for 6.92 strikeouts against a projected Tigers lineup with a 0.288 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
In three starts this season, Kershaw has a 12.18 K/9, 0.59 WHIP and a 37% K rate — a dominant start. Per the Trends tool, when Kershaw is a -350 home moneyline favorite or higher, he has averaged 28.13 actual Draftkings points, with a +4.93 Plus/Minus. The Dodgers stud is definitely worth the spend-up.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Dane Dunning ($6,200) Texas Rangers (-110) vs. Atlanta Braves
If looking for value, Texas Rangers pitcher Dane Dunning should be considered an option, despite a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves.
Dunning should easily reach fantasy relevance with his strikeout upside, projected for more than five strikeouts against the Braves’ power bats. Keep an eye on whether Globe Life Field will open the roof, which may impact the Park Factor Rating to favor hitters. In four starts this season, Dunning has an 0-1 record with a 9.33 K/9, 4.91 ERA and a 22.6% K rate. The upside is certainly there for the young Rangers arm, making him a viable option at SP2.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,700) Boston Red Sox (-172) at Baltimore Orioles
Cole and Kershaw should project for massive ownership on today’s slate, given their consistent upside. However, for an arm with a high projected ceiling and a massive discount in salary, look toward Boston Red Sox arm Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi is in an ideal spot, facing a Baltimore Orioles lineup with a 3.6 run total and in matchup with one of the highest Weather Ratings on the slate.
Projected for 6.43 strikeouts, the Red Sox ace should exceed expectations facing a projected Orioles lineup with a 0.245 average wOBA, which is one of the lowest on the slate. Eovaldi has a 9.97 K/9, 27% K rate and a 1.11 WHIP in four starts this season.
With the high upside, Eovaldi might be the difference maker in unlocking the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model , when generated by median projection, belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- Trevor Story (1) ($5,100)
- Rafael Devers (4) ($5,100)
- Xander Bogaerts (3) ($5,200)
- J.D. Martinez (5) ($4,400)
- Alex Verdugo (2) ($3,800)
The top of the Red Sox lineup is loaded with power and is implied for 4.6 runs against Baltimore Orioles arm Spenser Watkins, who in three starts has a 3.46 K/9 and a 1.23 WHIP — an ideal spot against a pitcher who does not limit damage.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, but be prepared to spend up for this premium stack, which is priced at $23,600. With the high upside, you may want to consider adding Eovaldi to your stack, for salary relief and win-bonus upside.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
Despite the sluggish start to the season, the Reds are in an ideal spot, playing in the hitter-friendly Coors field and look to be an extreme value. Cincinnati is implied for five runs Saturday, and is expected to face Chad Kuhl, who makes his fourth start of the season and currently has a 21% K rate.
In what may be a misprice on DraftKings, the $16,300 salary and high implied total should allow players to reach for higher-priced arms and a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack has the potential to rack up runs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Randal Grichuk OF ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Connor Overton)
Removing the Red Sox and Reds in search of possible one-off plays, Colorado Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk jumps to the top as the highest-rated player in our Tournament Model. Projected to hit third, Grichuck and the Colorado Rockies are slated to face Connor Overton, who is set to make his major-league debut in a less-than-ideal venue of Coors Field. The Rockies have a 6.2 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate, and they should give the rookie problems Saturday night. As with any Coors slate, be prepared to spend up for the Rockies bats.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr should be in the conversation Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling. Making his anticipated return to the lineup this week after missing most of last season due to an ACL injury, Acuna should return to his leadoff position facing a Rangers starting pitcher in Dane Dunning who is known for this blowup potential. At $6,000 on DraftKings, the upside does come at a premium.
The Braves have a 4.3 implied run total and should benefit from the consistent power of Acuna, especially if the Rangers decide to open the roof at Globe Life Park.
Sam Hilliard OF ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Connor Overton)
The Rockies do have some value in their projected lineup and outfielder Sam Hillard projects for the highest Plus/Minus on the slate. Priced at $2,700 on DraftKings, Hillard allows players to have access to Coors without the lofty price tag of the top of the order. Projected to bat seventh, his upside is limited due to his order in the lineup, but as a 6.2 implied run total, the Rockies should have plenty of opportunities to step up to the plate and generate runs.
