The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a 12-game main slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
Stud
The top of the pricing spectrum features a few big-time pitchers on Saturday, but most of them stand out as overpriced per THE BAT. That said, it’s hard not to get excited about using Spencer Strider. He turned in one of the most impressive rookie seasons for a pitcher in quite some time, posting a 2.67 ERA with 13.81 strikeouts per nine innings. Strider also pitched 131.2 innings, so he did it over a relatively large sample size.
His advanced metrics are even more impressive. His strikeout rate was 38.1% as a member of the starting rotation, which would’ve been the top mark in baseball if he pitched enough innings to qualify. Strider also posted a 1.83 FIP and a 2.41 SIERA, both of which ranked first among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.
Strider has a great chance to get off to a good start in 2023 against the Nationals. They were a subpar offensive team in 2022, ranking 21st in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Over the second half of the season – when they didn’t have Juan Soto anchoring their lineup – they dipped to just 24th.
Strider’s Vegas data in this spot is among the best on the slate. He’s a massive -250 favorite, and the Nationals are implied for just 3.4 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The only real concern with Strider is his length. The Braves plan on making a deep postseason run this season, and they need Strider to do it. Since he only pitched around 130 innings last year, the team likely won’t want to put too much on his plate early in the year. Still, five or six innings with his kind of strikeout upside should be more than enough.
Value
Justin Steele is priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, which is downright larceny. Steele was victimized by playing for a bad Cubs squad last year, but he quietly turned in an excellent season. He posted a 3.18 ERA, 3.81 SIERA, and a 9.53 K/9, all of which represented significant improvements from his rookie year.
While he might be getting much respect from the DraftKings pricing algorithm, he’s getting plenty of love from Vegas. The Brewers are implied for just 3.4 runs on Saturday, which is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate. The Brewers are slight favorites in this spot, but that has more to do with Brandon Woodruff being on the mound than their offense.
Speaking of their offense, the Brewers were a phenomenal matchup for left-handers last year. They ranked 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and they had the third-highest strikeout rate. They are expected to be another friendly matchup for strikeouts in 2023, with their projected lineup owning the worst splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the entire slate.
Ultimately, $6,000 is just way too cheap for a pitcher of Steele’s caliber, especially in this matchup. He should be a very popular option – he’s currently projected for the third-most ownership in THE BAT – but he easily leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Quick Hits
Nick Lodolo is actually projected for the most ownership at pitcher on this slate. Like Strider, he’s another second-year pitcher who will be looking to build off an impressive rookie year. He wasn’t quite as successful as Strider was last season, but his 3.66 ERA and 11.41 K/9 were both outstanding. He also entered last season with a bit more pedigree than Strider, checking in as the No. 42 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs. His Vegas data lags behind some of the other top pitchers on this slate, but his matchup against the Pirates is elite. They had the second-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest wRC+ against left-handers last season.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy Simulations are also bullish on Lodolo’s strikeout upside in this spot:
Chris Sale has historically been one of the best pitchers in baseball, but we haven’t really seen him in almost four years. He’s pitched just 48.1 innings since 2019, so he’s a bit of a question mark in his first start in 2023. Still, at $6,700 on DraftKings, there’s plenty of upside if he’s even close to being the same pitcher that he was in his prime. He leads the slate with a K Prediction of over seven, and he’s a -161 favorite vs. the Orioles. Historically, players with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and moneyline odds have posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.16.
Strider stands out as the best of the pay-up options on FanDuel, but Woodruff is an interesting pivot. He has one of the top Bargain Ratings on FanDuel at 87%, and his opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs is tied for the best mark on the slate. He’s also projected for less than half the ownership of Strider at less than eight percent.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack using THE BAT X when optimizing by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
Strider isn’t the only reason the Braves stand out on Saturday. They also boast one of the best lineups in baseball, and they’re currently implied for 5.0 runs vs. Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray. That’s the second-highest mark on the main slate, trailing only the Red Sox’s mark of 5.1.
Gray was one of the pieces that the Nationals got in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade, but he has yet to live up to expectations. He was considered the No. 17 prospect in baseball heading into the 2021 season, but he’s posted an ERA above 5.00 in his two years in the majors. The long ball has been a major issue for him, allowing at least 2.3 homers per nine innings in 2022 and 2021. In a year where homers were down, Gray was a bit of an outlier with how frequently opponents were able to take him deep. Paolo Espino and Yusei Kikuchi were the only other pitchers with a HR/9 above 1.73 to pitch at least 100 innings, and neither player was particularly close to Gray’s mark.
That could spell trouble vs. the Braves, who led the league in ISO against right-handed pitchers last season. Their lineup might not be quite as strong after losing Dansby Swanson this offseason, but they still have plenty of guys who can take you deep from top to bottom.
Matt Olson stands out as their strongest option on this slate. He’s a bit cheaper than guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley at $4,700, but he’s their best hitter against traditional pitchers. He’s posted a .368 wOBA and .276 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, both of which rank first among their projected starters. Olson’s numbers were slightly down in his first year in Atlanta, but most of the projection systems have him pegged for improvement in Year Two.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Justin Turner 1B/3B ($3,800 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer)
I’m not sure why Turner is priced so fairly across the industry. His power numbers were slightly down in his final season with the Dodgers, but he was still extremely productive at 37 years old. He posted a 123 wRC+, including a 152 wRC+ over the second half of the year. Turner should also benefit from a solid park upgrade, with Fenway Park serving as a friendly venue for right-handed hitters. Kremer pitched to a 3.23 ERA in 2022, but his 4.46 xERA suggests he was very lucky. With the Sox leading the slate in implied team total, Turner looks like an awesome value option across the industry.
Joey Gallo OF ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)
I’m not ready to give up on Gallo. It’s very possible that he’s mentally checked out on baseball, with his stint with the Yankees causing irreversible damage to his psyche. Still, of all the hitters in baseball, Gallo figures to benefit from the shift change more than any of them. He’s a dead-pull hitter, and defenses can no longer load up the right side of the infield to try to slow him down. That should help with his batting average, and if Gallo can get back on track mentally, we know the power is there. He has two career seasons with 40 homers, and he was among the leaders in Statcast metrics like exit velocity and hard-hit rate during those years. If there’s any chance that the old Gallo is still in there somewhere, he can do significant damage at these prices.
Michael Conforto OF ($3,300 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt)
Conforto is another player we haven’t seen in quite some time after missing all of last season. However, he occupied a premium spot in the Giants lineup on Opening Day, albeit in a brutal matchup vs. Gerrit Cole. Saturday’s matchup against Schmidt should be much friendlier, with Schmidt posting a pedestrian 4.68 FIP against left-handed batters last season. Conforto has historically been at his best against right-handed pitchers, and this game being played at Yankee Stadium is another major plus. It features one of the shortest porches in baseball in right field, giving left-handed batters an 82 Park Factor. That’s the best mark on the slate.
