The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Blake Snell ($10,200) San Diego Padres (-230) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Snell’s Vegas data stands out as the best on the evening slate on Monday. He’s the heaviest favorite on the slate, and the Diamondbacks have the lowest implied total on the board.
While none of Monday’s pitchers have massive projections, that makes Snell a fairly straightforward top option. He also brings plenty of strikeout upside, with a 30.9% strikeout rate on the season. He’s finished with a K% above 30% in each of the last five seasons.
The Diamondbacks are also one of the more appealing matchups on the slate, with a 90 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They have a top-10 strikeout rate against southpaws as well, so everything is aligning for Snell tonight.
He leads THE BAT’s median projections while coming in third in the FantasyLabs Models.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Hunter Brown ($5,200) Houston Astros (-166) vs. Texas Rangers
Brown is making his MLB debut tonight against the Rangers. He’s currently ranked as the Astros top pitching prospect according to FanGraphs, with Triple-A numbers to back up that assertion. Through 23 appearances and 14 starts this season, he has a 2.55 ERA and a strikeout rate of over 30%.
While there’s no guarantee that carries over to the big leagues, there are plenty of encouraging signs. It’s a relatively easy first matchup with the Rangers, who rank 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They also strike out at the eighth-highest rate in the majors.
Betting markets are on Brown’s side as well. The Astros are solid favorites in the game, and Texas is implied for just 3.6 runs. My biggest concern with Brown is how deep he pitches into this one: Young arms tend to be on stricter pitch counts, and he opened the season as a reliever. Still, at his price tag, even a four-inning outing could provide enough points to pay off.
Brown leads the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for Pts/Sal by a fairly wide margin on Monday.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Triston McKenzie ($10,700) Cleveland Guardians (-134) at Kansas City Royals
McKenzie has made significant improvements in 2022, entering Monday with a 3.18 ERA. He also sports a 25.2% strikeout rate and underlying numbers to support both figures.
He also has a reasonably strong matchup with Kansas City, who rank 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season. This game is also in Kansas City, the second-friendliest park for pitchers on the slate.
That adds up to just a 3.6-run implied total for the Royals, one of the slate’s lower marks. Despite that, McKenzie’s ownership projection is very reasonable, making him an interesting pivot from Snell in GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Jurickson Profar (1) ($4,000)
- Juan Soto (2) ($5,600)
- Josh Bell (4) ($4,700)
- Jake Cronenworth (5) ($3,900)
- Will Myers (6) ($3,100)
Stacking choices are fairly limited on Monday, with most of the top hitting teams either off the slate or in difficult matchups. However, the Padres are in a fairly good spot, as they host the Diamondbacks and Ryne Nelson ($5,000).
It will be the MLB debut for Nelson, but he’s no top prospect. In 26 Triple-A starts, he has an ERA of 5.43 this season. He’d been lights-out at lower minor league levels, but struggling that much at Triple-A isn’t a great sign for his big-league prospects.
Arizona also features the sixth-highest bullpen ERA in the majors, so it’s unlikely to get much better for them after Nelson exits the contest.
The discount on Myers, Cronenworth, and Profar also makes this stack attainable from a salary standpoint. They’re a solid option in GPPs and cash games alike on Monday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
Three different California teams — the Dodgers, Padres, and Angels — are implied for five-plus runs on Monday, making them the clear best stacking options. The Angels’ offense has been relatively disappointing this season, with an 89 wRC+. However, a good chunk of that was with Mike Trout out of the lineup.
Most of that also came against more capable opponents than they face tonight. They’re taking on the Tigers, who are starting lefty Tyler Alexander ($5,600). Alexander has a 4.76 ERA on the season, and his xERA and SIERA marks are even higher.
Even with the salaries of Trout and Ohtani, the Angels stack is exceedingly cheap. Like the Padres, they’re a strong option for both cash games and GPPs on Monday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Mookie Betts OF ($6,500 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb)
While Betts is the headliner, it’s really about the Dodgers in general. Their 5.2-run implied total leads the slate, though their star-studded lineup is difficult to stack from a salary standpoint. Betts has the best projections of the bunch, leading the team in the FantasyLabs Models and THE BAT X.
Trea Turner ($6,100 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) is my other favorite Dodger option. Neither of the slate’s top stacks includes a shortstop, so he’s easy to fit around both. His combination of power and speed gives him tremendous upside, and he leads the position in median projection.
Javier Baez SS ($4,100 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Suarez)
Baez remains one of the best options against left-handed pitching in baseball. He has an .841 OPS against lefties on the season, compared to a pitiful .583 against righties. He draws left-hander Jose Suarez ($7,000) of the Angels on Monday.
Baez projects as one of the better Pts/Sal options at shortstop today, particularly on FanDuel given his 86% Bargain Rating. He’s a solid pivot from Turner, who saves significant salary and ownership. The Tigers hit southpaws much better than traditional pitchers as a team, so mini-stacks featuring their righties are in play tonight.
Luis Robert OF ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
The White Sox are a sneaky-good team against left-handed pitching, with a 122 wRC+ that ranks third in the league. That makes them an attractive option today, with Robert leading the charge. He has extreme platoon splits in his three-year MLB career, hitting lefties for a .360 average and 1.027 OPS.
While he’s fairly expensive on DraftKings, his 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel stands out. The White Sox 2-6 hitters are all better bargains on FanDuel, making them a solid under-the-radar stack.
