The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Noah Syndergaard ($7,900) Los Angeles Angels (-13) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Syndergaard leads our MLB Models in median and ceiling projection on Monday’s slate despite his reasonable price tag. “Thor” hasn’t been his old self yet to start this season, with just a 14.6% strikeout rate that’s barely half his career average. His average fastball velocity of 94.4 mph is also down from where it used to be, with a career mark of 97.5 mph.
However, he’s also gotten somewhat unlucky to start the season. Strikeout rate is generally a little more than double a pitcher’s swinging strike rate. Syndergaard has a swinging strike rate of 11.6% on the season, which is good but not great. That would generally work out to a strikeout rate of roughly 25%, well above his current mark.
If he can mix some strikeouts in with solid run prevention, he’s an absolute steal at $7,900. Vegas has the Rays implied for a modest 3.6 runs, with favorable Park Factor and Weather Ratings for pitchers in this game. While it wasn’t a great start from a fantasy perspective, Syndergaard did last seven innings in his previous outing, which is another encouraging sign.
His fastball velocity will probably never be what it once was, but Syndergaard is still a top-end MLB pitcher. We’re getting him at a bargain in a solid matchup, so let’s take advantage before his price starts to climb.
Carlos Rodon ($10,000) San Francisco Giants (-270) vs. Colorado Rockies
With the exception of Tampa Bay’s Jeffrey Springs ($4,000) — who’s merely an opener — Rodon has the best numbers of any pitcher on today’s slate. He has a SIERA below three and a ridiculous 35% strikeout rate dating back to last season.
We’re getting him at a slight bargain today after a relatively disappointing outing in his last appearance. He allowed two runs over six innings while only striking out two Dodgers. This is a much easier matchup, considering the Rockies are an average lineup at best. They’re also missing arguably their best hitter in Kris Bryant, who is rehabbing an injury.
That adds up to a slate-low 2.5 implied run total for the Rockies in San Francisco. The Rockies lineup has average overall numbers, but they benefit from playing home games at Coors Field. On the road, their weighted runs created plus (wRC+) mark is just 88 (100 is average).
This game also features the best pitching weather on the slate, with temperatures expected in the low 50s. Everything is pointing towards Rodon being an excellent play tonight. While his ownership projection is the highest on the slate, we can differentiate elsewhere. Rodon leads THE BAT’s median projections for pitchers while ranking second in the FantasyLabs system.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Pineda ($6,200) Detroit Tigers (-123) vs. Oakland A’s
Vegas is giving Detroit and Pineda a healthy amount of respect, installing them as slight favorites while setting Oakland’s implied run total at just 3.5. Pineda isn’t going to miss a ton of bats — he has just eight strikeouts in 15 innings this season — but he doesn’t have to at his current price tag. If he can keep the hits and runs down, he’s a fine cash game option for today’s slate.
The matchup is the real selling point here. Oakland has a wRC+ of 77, the second-lowest in the league. There’s no reason to expect the A’s bats to break out tonight with a positive Park Factor and Weather Rating for pitchers at Comerica Park.
Pineda isn’t an especially exciting pick, but you’d feel outstanding about six solid innings and a win from him at his price. His upside is limited, making him a better cash game option. He ranks among the top three in Pts/Sal rating in FantasyLabs and The BAT’s projections for Monday’s slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($9,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-176) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Woodruff looks to be flying slightly under the radar, with ownership projections outside the top three in both FantasyLabs and The BAT’s systems. Ignore him at your own peril though, as he takes on the pathetic Reds offense in Cincinnati.
This is a rematch for Woodruff, who also raced the Reds in his last start. It worked out well for him, striking out a dozen Reds across five and two-thirds innings. While we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance, approaching those numbers gives him a chance to be the top-scoring pitcher on the slate.
Woodruff boasts a 30% strikeout rate dating back to last season — even against major league caliber offenses (unlike the Reds). All of his secondary metrics are nearly as strong as Rodon’s while benefiting from a much softer matchup. He’s an excellent GPP pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Miami Marlins:
- Jazz Chisholm (1) ($5,400)
- Jesus Aguilar (2) ($4,000)
- Jorge Soler (3) ($3,800)
- Joey Wendle (4) ($3,600)
- Bryan De La Cruz (6) ($2,000)
The Marlines are implied for 4.5 runs — second-best on the slate — but you can still build a five-player stack for under $19,000 on DraftKings. That’s especially useful today, with plenty of costlier pitching options worth spending up for.
The Marlins are taking on Arizona’s Humberto Castellanos, who sports a 4.97 ERA in 76 career innings dating back to 2020. It’s not like he’s been unlucky either, with a 4.88 SIERA. Miami is also quietly an above-average offense, with a team wOBA over .300 and a wRC+ of 105.
When you have an above-average offense facing a bottom-tier pitcher, stacking that team at bargain prices is hard to pass up. Castellanos has struggled even more against left-handed hitting, making Chisholm and Wendle especially appealing. Miami’s stack is in play for tournaments or cash games.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The BAT is clearly not a believer in Syndergaard, with the Rays having the highest ceiling projections for their matchup against him. This is a high-leverage stack option since Thor will likely be one of the more popular pitchers.
The BAT expects the Rays’ lefties to get the better of the matchup, with four of the five spots in this stack filled by left-handed or switch-hitting batters. That’s a wise choice, with lefties hitting 20 points better against Syndergaard for his career. If that trend continues, it’s worth sacrificing a slight amount of correlation to get the number-eight spot hitter.
The average price tag of under $4,000 is also helpful, as you’re likely spending up for GPP pitchers is not rostering Syndergaard. The Rays stack wouldn’t make my tighter builds, but they’re certainly worth a look for GPPs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Austin Slater OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
Slater stands out for a number of reasons on today’s slate. First off, he’s just $2,900 on DraftKings despite being expected to bat leadoff for the Giants. That’s a solid bargain, particularly with the Giants’ healthy implied team total of 4.1 runs. While tons of cheap hitting options are available on the slate — see both suggested stacks — it’s still nice to free up some salary.
Next is the pitching matchup. Gomber of the Rockies is mediocre at best, with a 4.34 ERA dating back to last season. While it’s not the softest matchup, it’s certainly not one to avoid either. The most significant factor is Slater’s ridiculous splits against lefties. Gomber is a southpaw, and Slater has a career OPS nearly 200 points higher when he has the platoon advantage.
I frequently highlight right-handed hitters with good splits against lefties in this space, but there’s a reason behind it. Hitters are generally priced for their average performance. With left-handed pitching in the minority, that average is mainly made up of right-handed matchups. Therefore, players who excel against lefties are a bargain when those matchups pop up. Slater is the best example of that today, with an excellent +2.65 projected Plus/Minus.
Mike Trout OF ($6,000 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Jeffrey Springs)
Trout actually has reverse platoon splits in his career, hitting slightly worse against left-handed pitching. That may keep a few players off of Trout given his matchup with the left-handed pitching Springs. However, Springs is an opener for the Rays, meaning Trout will almost certainly face Springs just once.
Of course, Trout’s numbers on the “wrong side” of his splits are still better than almost any other hitter to ever live. I still contend there’s never a wrong time to play Trout, only degrees of good. Today he has the highest median projection but is outside the top fifteen in The BAT’s ownership projections. That feels like a perfect time to me.
Daulton Varsho C/OF ($3,800 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins (Elieser Hernandez)
Varsho’s catcher eligibility makes him hard to ignore today. While he’s a bit overpriced for his production, getting a catcher in the leadoff spot of his team’s lineup is extremely rare. He leads all catcher-eligible player’s in ceiling projections in both The BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets. He can also do things most catchers can’t, with two stolen bases already this season.
