The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Walker Buehler ($9,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-335) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Buehler is a fairly obvious top option on tonight’s six-game slate. He’s taking on the Pirates, whom Vegas has implied for only 2.9 runs. The next lowest team total on the board is 3.7, which highlights just how far Buehler stands above the rest of the field on Monday.
Buehler has been a bit disappointing from a fantasy standpoint this year. He went for 46 fantasy points in one outing, but that was his only start with more than 21 points this season. However, he’s been a bit unlucky, particularly in the strikeout department. Buehler’s swinging strike rate of 12.3% is the best of his career, but his strikeout rate is below 20%, by far the worst mark he’s had in any season.
Swinging strikes cause strikeouts, not the other way around. That means his strikeout numbers are due for an uptick, which would lead to bigger fantasy scores. Today’s a great day for him to break out, as he’s taking on a Pirates team with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors.
Given the lack of strong alternatives, Buehler is sure to carry extremely high ownership on tonight’s slate. However, he’s probably worth eating the chalk tonight. He’s the leader in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s projection systems in median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Glenn Otto ($6,500) Texas Rangers (+120) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
It’s a difficult slate to find pitching value, which is unfortunate given all the high-powered offensive pieces we’d like to fit in. Otto might be the best bet at the lower salary range, as his Rangers are only slight underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa’s 4.4-run implied total is far from ideal, but we have to make concessions somewhere when looking at cheaper pitching options. While Otto has been inconsistent this season, he looked great in his last start. He scored 24.25 DraftKings points in a tough matchup against the Angels.
While the Rays aren’t an offense we generally want to target with opposing pitchers, they aren’t one to fear either. They rank roughly league average in wRC+ and strikeout rate, and that’s good enough for a low-priced pitcher like Otto. Especially considering he’s made just 12 big league starts and should still be getting better with experience.
Otto is a risky play, but it’s a risk we may have to take tonight. He trails only Buehler in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT’s system while ranking third in the FantasyLabs projections — behind Buehler and an equally risky Tyler Wells ($5,400), who has a tough matchup with Boston.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zac Gallen ($9,400) Arizona Diamondbacks (+101) vs. Atlanta Braves
Outside of Buehler, Gallen arguably has the best metrics of any pitcher on the slate. His 3.38 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate are solid, and five of his eight starts this season have produced at least 20 DraftKings points. The difficulty with Gallen is the matchup.
While Atlanta is a slightly below-average offense on the season based on wRC+ and wOBA numbers, much of their struggles came before Ronald Acuna returned to the lineup. They should be considerably better with him involved, which explains their 4.4-run implied total today.
However, they’ve struck out at the highest rate in the league. That’s not an area where Acuna has helped, as his rate is over 33% on the season. Given Gallen’s abilities, the ceiling for strikeouts in this one is high. That makes Gallen a high-risk, high-reward option for today’s slate. That’s the type of pitcher we like for GPPs, making him one of the better options.
It’s uncomfortable paying more for Gallen than Buehler, as Buehler is the overall better choice. However, that salary level should keep ownership on Gallen reasonably low, making him an interesting GPP choice. He could be paired with Buehler if there are budget hitters that are appealing or used as a Buehler pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- Andrew McCutchen (1) ($3,300)
- Luis Urias (2) ($4,500)
- Christian Yelich (3) ($4,800)
- Tyrone Taylor (4) ($3,100)
- Mike Brosseau (5) ($3,100)
The Brewers ‘ budget-friendly stack is a solid option if rostering two of the more expensive pitchers. At an average cost of under $3,800 per player for their first five hitters, they’re a strong value on today’s slate. They also have an incredibly strong 5.7-run implied total, which trails only Boston for the top mark.
That’s partially due to their matchup with Drew Smyly ($8,700). The Cubs lefty has a SIERA and ERA over four on the season. The Brew Crew have been quietly good as of late as well, ranking top-five in the MLB in wOBA for May.
Pay close attention to the Brewers hitters with strong platoon splits against left-handed pitching. McCutchen has a career OPS of .949 against southpaws, nearly 150 points better than his numbers against righties. While his overall production has fallen off this season, he’s still way better when facing left-handed pitching.
Urias has even more dramatic splits, with the career .241 hitter batting .289 against lefties. Brosseau has the most dramatic splits of the bunch, with an OPS jump of over .200 against left-handers, while Taylor sees a slight improvement to his numbers, as well.
Overall, the Brewers are a strong choice at a cheap price, whether you go with the full stack or pick out a few of their better options. That’s much needed on the evening slate, where Dodgers and Red Sox bats are in play but very expensive.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT (outside of Milwaukee), when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Paying up for the Dodgers is a tough pill to swallow today, given the strength of the much cheaper Brewers hitters. However, that could make them an excellent choice for tournaments. The star-studded lineup could go off at any point, and ownership should be suppressed significantly due to the cost. The fact that five of the 12 teams in play this evening have run totals over five should spread ownership as well.
Los Angeles has a matchup with Zach Thompson ($8,500) of the Pirates, whose DraftKings salary belies much worse overall numbers this year. He brings a 5.50 ERA into the contest while averaging less than four innings per start. Yielding innings to the Pirates’ bullpen isn’t bad for the Dodgers either. Collectively, their 4.20 ERA ranks bottom-10 in the league.
The Dodgers are always a strong play if you can find the salary for them, and Monday is no exception. Their likely reduced ownership makes them even more interesting than usual. I’ll want exposure to at least some of their hitters, even if a full stack proves too expensive.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Alex Verdugo OF ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tyler Wells)
The red-hot Red Sox have a strong matchup with Wells and the Orioles. Wells has SIERA and ERA numbers over 4.3 on the season. Verdugo might be the best price-considered Red Sox option. He has a career .290 batting average against right-handed pitching and should have plenty of RBI opportunities batting fifth for Boston.
Getting exposure to all the high-total offenses on the board today is difficult, but budget options like Verdugo make it possible. Of course, it would be nice to roster Red Sox stacks alongside him, but the salary makes that difficult. Verdugo is a nice compromise.
Willson Contreras C ($4,900 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee brewers (Aaron Ashby)
Contreras is the top-projected catcher in THE BAT’s projections while trailing only Will Smith of the Dodgers in the FantasyLabs set. He’s slightly cheaper than Smith as well, coming in at $4,900. Both systems are showing identical ownership projections on the two of them.
Contreras is my preferred option, though. Ashby is getting a spot start due to the doubleheader between Chicago and Milwaukee, which should also mean a taxed Brewers bullpen. Contreras also has excellent numbers against left-handed pitching, with a career OPS of .874. Be sure to keep an eye on our Lineups Page as we approach lock. It’s unlikely Contreras starts both games behind the dish, though he could be used as a DH for one or both of them.
Lane Thomas OF ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Washington Nationals at New York Mets (David Peterson)
If Verdugo isn’t quite cheap enough for you, Thomas is a viable play at his near-minimum salary. He’s a DraftKings-only special since the FanDuel savings are nowhere near as generous. He’s projected to bat second for the Nationals, who have a 3.7-run implied total as they take on the Mets.
Their matchup with Peterson isn’t especially difficult, though the lefty has been solid with a 3.84 SIERA this season. Thomas is hitting just .200, but his numbers against lefties are much better. He has a career average of .297 in that split and a .861 OPS. It’s not a huge sample size at 146 plate appearances, but that’s still notable. Those are great numbers for a hitter priced at $2,400.
