The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features 6 games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Chris Bassitt ($9,600) New York Mets (-117) vs. Atlanta Braves
Bassitt is the leader in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s projection systems for Monday’s slate. That comes with a high degree of variance though, as he’s taking on one of the game’s better offenses in the Braves. This game will test whether good pitching truly does beat good hitting, as both teams have strong pitchers on the mound against formidable lineups.
Vegas is on the side of the pitchers though, with a 6.5 over/under. More importantly, they’re on the side of Bassitt and the Mets, evidenced by the -117 line for the home team. That’s a reflection of Bassitt’s strong start to 2022. He’s gone at least six innings in all four starts and only allowed multiple runs once.
There are some slight concerns, though. His xERA and SIERA are both nearly a run higher than his ERA, though both are still very strong at slightly over three. He also doesn’t strike out as many hitters as we’d like for a pitcher in his price range, with a 23.9% rate this season and 25% dating back to 2021.
That makes me more interested in Bassitt as a cash game play, where his run prevention should win the day. This game also has positive Park Factor and Weather Rating scores, which is another boost to Bassitt. He’s not a bad GPP play by any stretch, but as one of the likely highest-owned pitchers, I’m willing to pass on him today.
Pablo Lopez ($10,000) Miami Marlins (-155) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Lopez ranks just behind Bassitt in median projections on today’s slate. He’s very similar to Bassitt, with excellent Vegas data — the Diamondbacks have the lowest implied total on the slate — and a strong start to the season. He’s also a heavier favorite, as Miami has a much easier matchup against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona ranks near the bottom of the league in a variety of offensive metrics, including weighted runs created (29th), offensive WAR (23rd), and wOBA (29th). That gives Lopez a slightly higher degree of safety. He also brings more upside, with better strikeout and swinging strike numbers this season and for his career.
Unfortunately, he’s also the only pitcher with higher ownership projections than Bassitt. It’s expected to be fairly close though, so I’m not letting that sway me from Lopez in GPPs. That said, playing both together is probably a mistake given their high salaries and likely ownership.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Zac Gallen ($7,600) Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) at Miami Marlins
Lopez’s counterpart is also a strong play, with Miami implied for a reasonable 3.7 runs. Gallen’s metrics aren’t as strong as the top pitchers on the slate, but he still brings a SIERA under 4.00 and a strikeout rate over 25% dating back to last season. Those are solid numbers for a reasonably priced pitcher.
This game also features the most pitcher-friendly park in play today by Park Factor, so both pitchers are attractive options. As the underdog, Gallen should also come in at an ownership discount. You could get extra unique with your lineups by pairing the two together, though that caps your upside since they can’t both pick up the win.
Regardless, Gallen ranks first (THE BAT) and second (FantasyLabs) in Pts/Sal projections in our systems. He’s a good salary saver for cash games and a decent GPP pick that allows you to spend up on your bats today.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Max Fried ($9,300) Atlanta Braves (-102) at New York Mets
Fried is my favorite GPP option of the day, as his Braves are slight underdogs to the Mets. Fried started the season off poorly, with his first two starts producing less than 12 DraftKings points each. However, he’s picked it up in his last two outings. He’s scored 55 combined points while allowing just one run over 13 innings against the Dodgers and Cubs.
While the Mets have one of the league’s best offenses by advanced metrics, there’s reason to believe they’ve been a bit lucky. As a team, New York’s .316 BABIP is the highest in the MLB. Their lineup isn’t exactly packed with speedsters either, so that number is probably unsustainable. New York is also on the wrong side of their team splits against lefties. Their wOBA against southpaws is more than 30 points lower than their mark against right-handed pitching.
Add that to Fried’s reasonable ownership projections, and he grades out as a solid GPP play. Our projections have him behind only Lopez and Bassitt in median projection, with a similar Pts/Sal score. This is a rare case where you can get leverage without sacrificing much in projected scoring.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Michael Brantley (2) ($4,200)
- Alex Bregman (3) ($5,100)
- Yordan Alvarez (4) ($5,100)
- Yulieski Gurriel (5) ($3,800)
- Chirs McCormick (7) ($3,000)
The Astros have a juicy matchup with Marco Gonzales of the Mariners, who has the highest SIERA on the slate dating back to 2021. He’s also left-handed, which is good news for Bregman in particular:
Brengman vs. Lefties, still a cheat code https://t.co/9c5oGGad7u
— Billy Ward (@Psychoward586) April 30, 2022
Bregman had a 22-point performance with a home run in his last outing against a left-hander, which is to be expected given his .970 career OPS against southpaws. Gurriel (.822 OPS) and McCormick (.829) are also on the right side of their platoon splits.
Be sure to keep an eye on our MLB News feed as we approach lock. It’s possible that the Astros deviate from their usual lineup, perhaps giving left-handed hitters like Brantley or Alvarez the day off. Either way, Houston has the highest implied total on the slate at 4.6 runs, making them a solid stack for tournaments and cash games.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees have the hottest bats in baseball, scoring a ridiculous 58 runs over their last seven games for an average of more than eight per contest. They’ve also been tremendous from a fantasy standpoint, with plenty of those runs coming via the long ball. Judge and Rizzo have five home runs in that span, while Stanton and Gallo have two apiece.
They have a matchup with Ross Stripling of the Blue Jays, a solidly average pitcher overall but one who struggles to keep the ball on the ground. He induces ground balls on just 38% of his balls in play, one of the lowest marks on the slate.
That’s not a great characteristic against the hard-hitting Yankees, especially in the Rogers Center. It has the best Park Factor score for hitters on the slate.
The Yankees have the highest implied total of any road team on the slate, with this stack leading the way in terms of projections. Projected leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu is also in play, but THE BAT gives a slight edge to Gallo.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Luis Arraez 1B/2B ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (Tyler Wells)
Arraez checks a lot of boxes for tonight’s slate. He has multi-position eligibility, so you can work him around whichever stacks you prefer. He’s a lefty playing at Camden Yards, which has a very short 318-foot right field fence. The Park Factor for lefties playing in Baltimore is 78, the highest for any handedness and park combination on the slate.
Arraez has also hit .322 in his career against right-handed pitching, so the matchup with Baltimore’s Wells is a solid one. Additionally, Arraez is a solid value with his $3,400 price tag while hitting second for the Twins. Minnesota’s 4.1 implied total trails only the Yankees among away teams, so the top-of-the-order Twins should see plenty of plate appearances in this one.
Alejandro Kirk C ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery)
It’s a rough slate for catchers today, with none expected to hit higher than sixth in their respective lineups. However, Kirk might be a bright spot. The young backstop has mashed lefty pitching in his brief MLB career, with an .844 OPS against southpaws.
Of course, $4,000 is a bit pricey for a player with his overall numbers. This would be a great day to fade the position on FanDuel, but that’s not an option on DraftKings. Kirk leads the position in median projection, so he’s a solid option if you can clear the salary to get to him.
Ronald Acuna OF ($6,100 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (Chris Bassitt)
It’s not an especially appealing matchup for Acuna against Bassitt, but it is a great leverage spot. Bassitt is expected to be one of the more popular pitchers on the slate, so Acuna getting something going against him would be a considerable boost to lineups that fade Bassitt.
The Braves superstar has been fairly pedestrian since his return from injury. He has two hits through his first 13 at bats, both singles. However, stealing two bases in his season debut — following a major knee injury — is an excellent sign he’s up to full strength physically. Once he finds his rhythm, he should be back to his old self. This is a perfect opportunity to get in early.
