The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Freddy Peralta ($10,500) Milwaukee Brewers (-130) vs. Atlanta Braves
While it’s not an ideal matchup, Vegas gives Peralta an edge over the Braves, with Atlanta implied for just 3.6 runs. That speaks to how good Peralta has been. He has a 3.33 SIERA dating back to last season and a slate-leading 33% strikeout rate. He’s also been solid in the run prevention department, allowing hard contact on less than 30% of the balls put in play against him.
After starting the year with two poor performances — nine runs allowed across seven innings combined — Peralta has settled in nicely as one of the game’s top pitchers. He’s scored at least 18 DraftKings points in his last four outings. Of course, his salary has risen to meet his level of performance, making him the most expensive pitcher on Monday’s slate.
He also features the top median and ceiling projections in our MLB Models while ranking second in The BAT’s. He’s a very safe pick who’s unlikely to totally ruin your lineup. The question is whether he can do enough to justify his top salary. If some of the cheaper arms can put up similar scores, Peralta won’t be a strong GPP play.
Personally, I’ll probably be rolling the dice on slightly cheaper arms for GPPs. It’s hard to beat his safety for cash games though, since even if the Braves get to him a bit, he can make up for it with strikeouts. His 8.15 K Prediction leads the slate by a comfortable margin.
Luis Severino ($8,800) New York Yankees (-210) at Baltimore Orioles
Severino is the leader in median projection in The BAT while trailing only Peralta in the FantasyLabs set. He hasn’t shown the strikeout upside of Peralta in his return from injury this season, with a good-but-not-great 25% rate and a 12.1% swinging-strike rate.
What makes him more appealing is the matchup. Baltimore ranks bottom-10 in the MLB in strikeout rate and wOBA, and they’re implied for just 3.4 runs against Severino and the Yankees. He’s also the slate’s biggest favorite, with the Yankees bats providing a ton of win equity.
We’ve yet to see any massive performances from Severino this season, but today could be the day that changes. He struck out eight in his last appearance, but the Blue Jays chased him from the game shy of five innings. It’s less likely that the Orioles will do the same, so he has substantial upside if he can go a bit deeper.
So long as his Ownership Projection isn’t well above Peralta, he’s my preferred option on today’s slate. Check back later in the afternoon when those are released. I expect it to be somewhat manageable though, given his lack of dominant performances to start the year.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Wade Miley ($4,400) Chicago Cubs (-156) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Miley has made just one start this season, lasting three innings while allowing three runs to the Padres. This time out, he has a much easier matchup with the Pirates. Pittsburgh has a reasonable 4.1-run implied total today, which is very reasonable for a $4,400 pitcher.
Miley was solid last season, pitching to a 4.52 SIERA and an 18% strikeout rate. At a near-minimum salary, those numbers look pretty good. Miley is purely a salary play for Monday’s slate, and one that could prove to be fairly popular. He leads both the FantasyLabs and The BAT’s projection systems for Pts/Sal projection.
Fading him could be an interesting tournament strategy though, particularly if a pair of high-end pitchers post big scores. It would make finding points with your hitters a bit more challenging but will likely be a unique way to build. For cash games, though, Miley is a near must-play.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Noah Syndergaard ($8,500) Los Angeles Angels (-139) at Texas Rangers
Syndergaard’s underlying numbers on the season suggest a return to form is ahead. His swinging-strike rate is right around his career average, but his strikeout rate is 8.5% lower. While his SIERA is elevated relative to his ERA, his batted ball data is strong. He’s forcing ground balls on nearly 50% of his balls in play, which is an elite rate.
He also has a plus-matchup with the Rangers, who rank in the bottom-third in most major offensive statistics. They’re implied for 3.8 runs, which is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the slate. If “Thor” isn’t one of the more popular options on today’s slate, I’ll want exposure in GPPs. His ceiling projection ranks fourth on the slate in the FantasyLabs projection set.
Kyle Bradish ($5,800) Baltimore Orioles (+175) vs. New York Yankees
Bradish will almost certainly carry minimal ownership today as he takes on the powerful Yankees lineup. They’re also playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards, with a Weather Rating of 36 for pitchers (average is 50). None of that sounds appealing — because it isn’t — but there are reasons to have exposure to Bradish.
When hunting for GPP options, I try to target pitchers whose SIERA is lower than their ERA, and who’s swinging strike rate is high relative to their strikeout rate. Bradish checks both boxes today, with a 3.20 SIERA that’s lower than both Peralta’s and Severino’s. His 12% swinging strike rate isn’t elite, but it’s the same as Severino’s, with the latter having a higher strikeout rate by a couple of percentage points.
That means Bradish has been better than his box scores and salary indicate. He scored 45 points against an elite Cardinals offense his last time out, and even half that against a similarly strong Yankees team would be a win at his current salary. The likeliest outcome is a poor performance, but he’s more likely to have a strong outing than the field is expecting. I wouldn’t look to Bradish if single-entering, but I want some exposure if making multiple lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
- LaMonte Wade (1) ($3,400)
- Brandon Belt (2) ($4,500)
- Wilmer Flores (3) ($3,700)
- Joc Pederson (4) ($4,200)
- Luis Gonzalez (8) ($2,600)
Our Tournament Model loves the Giants as they travel to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. They have a matchup with Antonio Senzatela ($4,700), who’s allowed a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. That explains the lefty-heavy makeup of this stack, with only Flores batting from the right side.
The Giants are absurdly cheap for a team playing at Coor’s Field, especially considering their success so far this season. They rank in the top ten as a team in both wOBA and wRC+, despite playing in one of the least friendly home parks for hitters.
Moving the show to Coors Field should pay huge dividends for the offense, especially against a mediocre opponent like Senzatela. They’re implied for a ridiculous 6.7 runs, easily the best on the slate.
Mixing in Gonzales makes sense too. In addition to adding another left-handed bat, he makes this stack far more unique than the traditional one-through-five configuration.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
As is nearly always the case, The BAT loves the Dodgers today. They have the highest implied total outside of Coors field at 5.3 runs and are taking on Madison Bumgarner ($6,400) and the Diamondbacks. Bumgarner has actually been solid this season, not allowing more than two runs in a single outing. However, his 4.91 SIERA tells a different story.
Bumgarner has been extremely lucky, with a .205 BABIP against. The Dodgers lineup could turn his luck around in a hurry. While Los Angeles hasn’t done especially well against left-handed pitching as a team, Turner has fairly strong platoon splits, and Muncy hits them well for being a fellow lefty.
Bumgarner also has lasted more than five innings just once this season. Another early exit would earn the Dodgers a date with Arizona’s bullpen, whose 4.87 ERA ranks third-worst in the majors. Overall, the Dodgers are a very strong stack which could go slightly overlooked with the game at Coors Field tonight. They’re worth finding the salary for in some capacity, even if a full stack is out of reach.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Yonathan Daza OF ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants (Alex Wood)
The visiting Giants will garner most of the attention today, with the better offense overall and the far superior pitching matchup. Don’t forget about the home team though, as the Rockies take on left-handed Alex Wood. Daza is expected to hit second for Colorado, making him a steal at just $2,700 on DraftKings. He’s more appropriately priced on FanDuel, but still a solid option there.
Daza also has fairly strong splits against lefties, with a career OPS roughly 50 points higher in a somewhat limited sample size. Connor Joe, C.J. Cron, and Brendan Rodgers also have solid platoon splits for tonight’s contest. Of course, none of them also provide the salary savings like Daza.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($3,200 DraftKing; $3,000 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi)
The Mariners rookie is a solid bargain on DraftKings, given that he’s expected to bat third for the Mariners. They’re implied for only 3.9 runs against Kikuchi, but Kikuchi has a allowed a wOBA over .350 to righties this season. Fangraphs gave Rodriguez extremely strong power scores as a prospect, and he’s lived up to them against left-handed pitching with a .947 OPS to start his career.
There are many strong outfield options today, but Rodriguez is a sneaky one in a solid situation. I’ll be trying to find some exposure to him for GPPs tonight.
Jose Miranda 1B/3B ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,200 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Oakland A’s (Zach Logue)
Miranda is another cheap rookie option. He hasn’t gotten it going at the big-league level yet but has strong prospect grades. He also has just a .111 BABIP, which is ridiculously low for a player with average speed (or any player, for that matter). Miranda had a .960 OPS in AAA last season, so the hits should start coming for him at some point. I’d much rather be too early than too late on him.
