The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Blake Snell ($8,100) San Diego Padres (-120) vs. New York Mets
This is a challenging slate to find solid pitching. Only three pitchers have a SIERA of 4.00 or lower dating back to the start of 2021, and each of them is facing a team currently ranked inside the top five for wRC+. However, if we dig a bit deeper, the matchup for Snell might be the best of the group.
He’s taking on the Mets, who have been crushing the ball all season. On the other hand, they’ve struggled a bit against left-handed pitching. The Mets rank 16th in wRC+ against southpaws, making them a roughly average matchup. Snell, of course, is a lefty, making this the most tolerable of the matchups for high-end pitchers.
He’s also looked better in each of his starts in 2022. After making his season debut in mid-May, he’s pitched deeper into his following outings, allowing him to score more fantasy points. If he can continue to improve upon his 18.5 DraftKings points in his last start, he’s an excellent value for the price.
Vegas is on his side, installing the Padres as slight favorites. They have the Mets implied for just 3.7 runs, the second-lowest total on the slate. He also has the best Weather rating and one of the better Park Factors of any pitcher on the board.
On many slates, Snell would be a somewhat risky proposition that we could justify fading. That’s not the case given the options out there on Monday. He owns the top median and points-per-dollar projections per FantasyLabs and THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jon Gray ($6,600) Texas Rangers (-104) at Cleveland Guardians
Gray is having the best season of his eight-year MLB career, with career bests in SIERA and strikeout rate. Of course, this is the first year in his career where he isn’t pitching half of his games at Coors Field, which probably explains most of that improvement. Regardless, he’s been solid on the season.
He was excellent his last time out, striking out 12 in seven innings of one-run ball against the Rays. Tampa Bay is a remarkably similar matchup by the numbers to his opponents this time, the Guardians. Cleveland strikes out at a much lower clip — so don’t expect another dozen Ks from Gray — but overall, it’s very close.
That makes him a solid value at $6,600, even with less than optimal Vegas data. Cleveland is implied for 4.7 runs, but our projections like Gray anyway. He ranks third in the FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal and second in THE BAT’s.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Noah Syndergaard ($7,000) Los Angeles Angels (-125) vs. Boston Red Sox
It’s clear that Syndergaard isn’t the dominant force he once was, with his numbers steadily declining each of the last three seasons. He averaged at least 97 mph on his fastball for the first five seasons of his career but has seen it drop below 95 mph each of the last two. However, he’s shown signs of life at times this year.
In his last four games, he has two starts where he scored negative eight or fewer points. However, mixed between those starts were 23 and 27 point outings. While matchup may have something to do with it, one of the good games was against the Rangers — as was one of the bad games.
This time he has a difficult matchup with the Red Sox. He faced them once this year in Boston, putting up a disappointing 10.35 points. This game being in Los Angeles should help, as the 82 Park Factor is the best mark on the slate. Even if he pitches roughly as well as he did last time against Boston, we should expect a few extra fantasy points based on the venue change.
However, Syndergaard is clearly a high-variance option, which is why he’s best suited to GPPs. While his 16% strikeout rate is disappointing, he’s been a bit unlucky. His swinging-strike rate is essentially the same as it was last season when he struck out 25% of opposing hitters. Based purely on swinging strike rate, he should settle somewhere in the low 20% range.
He ranks second in the FantasyLabs and third in THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projections, with projected ownership outside of the top three pitchers.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
Note: The Stacks tool produces Reds stacks as the top option when generated by tournament rating, but that game is highly likely to be rained out, so it’s not a recommended play.
- George Springer (1) ($5,000)
- Bo Bichette (2) ($5,400)
- Vladimir Guerrero (3) ($4,900)
- Teoscar Hernandez (4) ($4,200)
- Alejandro Kirk (5) ($4,500)
The Blue Jays are an obvious choice for the top stack on Monday. Their 5.5-run total is the highest on the board, with only the Reds at 5.1 anywhere close. With that game likely to be rained out, Toronto is in a class of their own. They’re also the road team, further boosting their projections.
They have an incredibly appealing matchup with Daniel Lynch ($6,300) of the Royals. Lynch is the worst pitcher on the slate, with a 4.63 SIERA and sub-20% strikeout rate on the season. He’s also left-handed, which is to Toronto’s benefit. They’re a roughly league-average offense overall but rank inside the top-10 in wRC+ and wOBA against lefties.
We could also look to target one-offs or mini-stacks comprised of Blue Jays bats with good platoon splits against southpaws. Springer has a career OPS 70 points higher against lefties. Kirk and Hernandez see about a 100-point spike each, while Bichette boosts his OPS by approximately 150 points.
Interestingly, Guerrero seems to struggle with lefties. While a Blue Jays onslaught means many of their at-bats will come against relievers anyway, I can see the case for fading Guerrero. Mixing in a different hitter would help differentiate your lineup and save some salary. In a slightly limited sample size, Santiago Espinal ($3,700) has hit .345 against lefties in his career.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by Ceiling (outside of Toronto and the likely rainout game) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston is taking on Syndergaard, who as we’ve discussed, has been all over the map this season. Another blowup game from Thor is somewhat likely, and Boston has been hitting the ball very well lately.
They’re implied for a solid 4.4 runs and are guaranteed nine trips to the plate as the away team. Given how Syndergaard has pitched this year, it would be wise to roster some Boston hitters in any lineups where you fade Syndergaard.
Boston lefties are extra attractive today, as lefties have hit Syndergaard significantly better throughout his career. Besides Duran and Devers, Alex Verdugo ($4,000) is another interesting choice. Duran stands out, though, with an extremely cheap price tag as the projected leadoff hitter. With it being a smaller slate — effectively five games if Arizona/Cincinnati rains out — I’d even be comfortable having lineups with Duran and Syndergaard.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jared Walsh 1B ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox (Michael Wacha)
Walsh is weirdly underpriced on DraftKings today. He’s expected to hit cleanup for the Angels, who have a 4.8-run implied total against Boston’s Michael Wacha. Wacha is an exploitable matchup, with a 4.69 SIERA on the season. While Walsh has taken a step back after a great rookie season, he still has solid numbers against righties. He’s hitting .268 with nine homers in 142 at-bats against right-handed pitching on the year. He’s a good play today at only $3,600.
Jose Altuve 2B ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (Robbie Ray)
It’s not the easiest matchup for Altuve, as his Astros take on Mariners lefty Robbie Ray. Vegas has Houston implied for a solid 4.6-run total, though, suggesting they can still find success. Altuve’s numbers are down a bit from a few years ago, but he’s still one of the best hitting second basemen in the league. He’s a fine play on DraftKings but an outstanding one on FanDuel, given his 91% Bargain Rating.
Corey Seager SS ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians (Cal Quantrill)
Quantrill is another exploitable pitching matchup on Monday’s slate. His 3.52 ERA is misleading, as his 5.01 SIERA suggests future regression. Quantrill has been incredibly lucky, with a HR/FB rate below five percent in 2022, less than half his career number.
Seager has also had a bad run this season, with a BABIP of .232. He’s never had a BABIP below .300 in a season, so some significant regression is due. We have a pitcher who’s been unreasonably lucky and a hitter who’s been equally unlucky. That’s a perfect buy-low opportunity for Seager, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating.
