The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Alek Manoah ($9,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-245) at Oakland A’s
Manoah is in his second year in the majors and is living up to the expectations that made him a first-round pick in 2019. His ERA is an outstanding 2.09, and he’s averaging more than six innings per start. That’s increasingly rare in the MLB, particularly from younger pitchers.
While his underlying metrics suggest he’s been a bit lucky — his xFIP and SIERA are both around 3.70 — those are still good marks. We’d prefer better strikeout numbers, though; at 22.7%, he doesn’t have the upside that other top pitchers bring.
It’s hard to argue with the matchup today, making him the top pitching option. Oakland has the worst offense in baseball by both wOBA and wRC+. This game is also in Oakland, a pitcher’s park with a slate-leading 62 Weather Rating for pitchers. Those factors contribute to Oakland’s 2.8 implied team total, easily the lowest on the slate.
Manoah leads the FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling while coming in a close second in THE BAT’s.
Sean Manaea ($9,000) San Diego Padres (-190) vs. Seattle Mariners
Both projection systems have it incredibly close between Manaea and Manoah, with Manaea having the slight edge in THE BAT. Rostering one or the other likely depends on how you feel about matchup vs. ability.
At this stage, I’d take Manaea in a neutral matchup over Manoah. The veteran Manaea has a nearly identical SIERA but is striking out 25% of his opponents. He also has a better swinging strike rate, so the upside is slightly in his favor.
Of course, it’s not a neutral matchup between the two today. Manaea is taking on the Mariners, who have an above-average lineup on the season. While they aren’t a team I’m looking to fade top pitchers against, I’m not going out of my way to target them either.
Vegas is on Manaea’s side, though, with the Padres as somewhat heavy favorites and Seattle implied for just 3.5 runs. That means the better play likely comes down to ownership projections. If either has a significantly lower mark, they’ll be the better choice. These two are affordable enough to play together as well, so we may not have to choose between them.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Konnor Pilkington ($6,000) Cleveland Guardians (TBD) at Detroit Tigers
The Guardians and Tigers are playing a doubleheader today, with Pilkington likely to get the start in game two. Doubleheaders are always tricky, and MLB.com doesn’t have the Guardians starter for the second game listed on Monday morning. Be sure to check our lineups page after the first game wraps up around 4:00 p.m.
Assuming it’s Pilkington, he’s a pure matchup play. The Tigers were hitting at a historically bad pace earlier in the season, and while they’ve picked it up a bit, they’re still one of the league’s worst offenses. Pilkington hasn’t been great, bouncing between the majors and minors with a 4.61 SIERA in the big leagues.
That could be enough at a cheap price tag in an ideal matchup. The uncertainty about the second game of this doubleheader could also limit his ownership. Most of the field probably wants to set their lineup earlier in the day and enjoy the holiday, so they won’t be rostering an unconfirmed starter.
THE BAT doesn’t even have projections up for the second game of the doubleheader (illustrating my point about the likely ownership), but Pilkington leads the FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Alex Faedo ($6,100) Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Faedo is projecting similar to Pilkington but will likely come in with even lower ownership. The Tigers should be underdogs once lines are set, making paying slightly more for Faedo an unpopular option.
Like Pilkington, Faedo has been back and forth between Triple-A and the majors in 2022. He has a nearly identical SIERA of 4.64, though slightly lower swinging strike and strikeout rates. However, the former first-round pick was graded higher as a prospect coming into the season.
He could take steps towards living up to those expectations, and the matchup with Cleveland isn’t particularly challenging. They’re a roughly league-average lineup overall. With Faedo’s budget price today, he’s a solid option. He ranks just behind Pilkington in Pts/Sal projections in the FantasyLabs set.
Julio Urias ($8,100) Los Angeles Dodgers (-295) vs. Colorado Rockies
Urias is an interesting option today. He has a very reasonable salary considering what Vegas is telling us: His Dodgers are the heaviest favorites on the slate, with Colorado implied for just 3.2 runs. He’s been excellent this season, with a 2.64 ERA and 23.5% strikeout rate.
On the other hand, the Rockies love left-handed pitching. They have a top-eight wRC+ against southpaws, and wRC+ is park-adjusted. That means that number is not inflated by Coors Field. They lead the majors in wOBA (which isn’t park-adjusted) against left-handed pitching.
Still, Vegas is telling us not to worry about that, with the second-lowest total on the board today. Urias trails only Manoah and Manaea in THE BAT’s projections, and he comes in at a discount in both salary and ownership projections. The platoon splits will probably keep me away from him, but he’s worth considering given his overall numbers.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
- Tim Anderson (1) ($4,400)
- Andrew Vaughn (2) ($3,600)
- Luis Robert (3) ($4,500)
- Gavin Sheets (5) ($3,200)
- A.J. Pollock (7) ($3,300)
The White Sox have one of the top implied totals on the slate today, trailing only the far more expensive Mets, Braves, and Dodgers. Chicago is implied for 5.1-runs against Dylan Bundy ($6,200) and the Twins.
Bundy has been mediocre this year, with SIERA and ERA numbers both in the mid-fours. The weather also appears favorable for hitters. The Windy City is expected to live up to its name, with double-digit wind speeds blowing out to left. The 68 Weather Rating for hitters leads the slate.
The White Sox are a logical stack to roster if playing two of the more expensive pitchers on the slate together, like Manoah and Manaea. The Sox’s cheap salaries allow you to fit in a few other stud hitters around them while still providing considerable upside.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Mets:
With four teams implied for at least five runs today, we’re spoiled for choice with high-end stacks. THE BAT thinks the Mets are the best of them all, as the only road team to feature a five-run or better implied total.
They’re traveling to Cincinnati to take on the Reds and Hunter Greene ($8,600). Greene’s production has not lived up to his electric stuff, with a 5.72 ERA in his rookie year. He misses a lot of bats, but the ones he doesn’t tend to do damage. He’s allowed 20 home runs in 74 innings this season.
Beyond that, the Reds have a comically bad bullpen. Their collective ERA of 5.70 is nearly a run higher than the next-worst team. The next worst team is the Rockies, who play half of their games at Coors Field. Greene’s average start has lasted less than five innings this season, so the Mets should get plenty of chances against the Reds relievers.
This stack is expensive, but not exorbitantly so. They can fit easily if mixing in a cheaper pitcher, or a partial Mets stack could pair well with two costly arms. The Mets make sense for both GPPS and cash games today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Trea Turner SS ($5,600 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
The Dodgers have a matchup with left-hander Kyle Freeland ($6,300), making Turner my preferred option from Los Angeles. Freeland isn’t a pitcher I want to load up against, sporting a 2.92 ERA on the road. That means he’s one of the better arms on the slate when you factor out pitching half of his games at Coors.
On the other hand, Turner has excellent numbers against lefties. He’s hitting .319 in his career against southpaws with an .883 OPS. That gives him an edge against Freeland, and it should be even better once Freeland yields to the Rockies bullpen. They have a 4.94 ERA on the road this season, so their struggles aren’t ballpark-related.
Mookie Betts ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) is also on my shortlist today. His salary on DraftKings has been reduced after missing a couple of weeks with an injury, but he returned yesterday with two doubles and two walks in five plate appearances. He’s clearly ok, so getting him at a reduced salary will be short-lived. FanDuel doesn’t reduce salaries as aggressively when players miss time, so he’s a better play on DraftKings.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,000 DraftKings; N/A FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (Alex Faedo)
While I have some interest in Faedo today, rostering Ramirez in lineups without Faedo makes a lot of sense. Ramirez is slumping, with his last home run coming back on June 10th. He had 16 home runs in the first two months of the year, though, so the power is clearly there.
Faedo has a 43.2% flyball rate on the season, so it’s a prime opportunity for Ramirez to break the slump. Even if he doesn’t leave the yard, he’s hitting .292 with 12 steals on the year. He can provide upside without the long ball.
The Tigers bullpen is one of the best units in the majors, but this is the second game of a doubleheader. Faedo will probably be left in a bit longer than he should be today, and the relievers that come in won’t be at full strength.
Ryan Jeffers C ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (Johnny Cueto)
Ryan Jeffers is the rare hitter cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel. While he’s only hitting .196 on the season, his underlying numbers suggest he should be slightly better. His .255 BABIP is fairly low, and his 9.1% HR/FB ratio is roughly half his career average.
While he’s not the likeliest player to post a huge score, at only $2,400, he’s a solid play today. We have to save salary somewhere, and doing so with a player who has some upside is the best way to do so.
