The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Sean Manaea ($8,800) San Diego Padres (-165) vs. Detroit Tigers
Manaea has been solid this season, with good-but-not-great numbers in ERA (4.02) and strikeout rate (23.9%). He’s in an elite spot today against the dreadful Tigers offense. Detroit’s offensive struggles are well-documented at this point, and they’ve recently managed to reclaim the dubious distinction as the worst offense in baseball (by wRC+) from the A’s.
Vegas is on the side of the Padres tonight, though not to the degree I was expecting. They’re moderately favored at -165, with Detroit implied for 3.6 runs. That’s certainly not a number that should scare us away from Manaea, but it’s on the higher side for Detroit.
Perhaps that’s due to Detroit’s relative success against left-handed pitching. The Tigers have an exactly league-average 100 wRC+ against southpaws while coming in a respectable 20th in wOBA. This should be viewed as a roughly average matchup for Manaea, not a smash spot.
Still, even with Vegas accounting for those details, Manaea is projecting as a top option today. He leads both FantasyLabs and THE BAT in median and ceiling projections.
Tony Gonsolin ($10,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-315) vs. Washington Nationals
Gonsolin has ridiculous numbers on the season, with a 2.02 ERA through 93.2 innings pitched. His strikeout rate is a strong 24% coming into this one, and he has a strong matchup with the Nationals.
His ERA is unsustainable, evidenced by FIP and SIERA numbers in the mid-threes. However, Washington is unlikely to force the regression issue today, with their bottom-five offense on the season. Gonsolin has the added benefit of pitching at home, with a strong 67 Park Factor.
Gonsolin isn’t standing out in either projection set, but that’s not necessarily bad. His ownership should be repressed, making him a solid GPP choice on a slate without many standout options.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Zack Greinke ($5,900) Kansas City Royals (-114) vs. Los Angeles Angels
It’s a testament to the struggles of the Angles lineup that the last-place Royals are essentially a pick ’em today. The 38-year-old Greinke is still an effective pitcher but far from the ace he once was. He has SIERA and ERA numbers in the mid-fours while striking out just 12.7% of his opponents.
Depending on the metric, the Angels’ offense ranks as a bottom-10 unit this season, and that’s with Mike Trout in the lineup. The three-time MVP is eligible to come off the IL today but reportedly is not ready for action yet. In their last seven games — all without Trout — the Angles have topped three runs just once.
That makes Greinke a solid cash game option. He’s unlikely to pick up enough strikeouts for a massive score but should be able to limit the number of runs scored. He leads both projection sets in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jake Odorizzi ($7,800) Houston Astros (-230) at Oakland A’s
Odorizzi is another matchup play today, as he takes on the Oakland A’s. Their implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied with the Nationals for the lowest mark on the slate.
Odorizzi profiles as a better GPP option than a pitcher like Greinke. He has a somewhat higher (18.3%) strikeout rate, and he flashed his ceiling against these A’s in their last meeting. In that game, Odorizzi threw seven scoreless innings while striking out seven.
While his ownership projections are somewhat high, it’s an 11-game slate with no standout pitcher. That means ownership should be widely distributed, so Odorizzi shouldn’t be chalk. He’s a top-five option in both THE BAT and the FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling.
Max Fried ($10,500) Atlanta Braves (-180) at Philadelphia Phillies
Fried is riskier than the other options mentioned today but with the highest upside. Unlike the other pitchers on the list, he has a difficult matchup with the Phillies. They’ve excelled against lefties like Fried, posting a 109 wRC+ on the season.
On the other hand, Fried has been excellent in 2022. He has a 2.64 ERA while averaging over six innings per start. His 23% strikeout rate isn’t spectacular but is still one of the top marks on Monday’s slate. Betting markets are also on his side, with the Braves as strong favorites and Philadelphia implied for 3.8 runs.
Crucially, his ownership is expected to be on the low side of his range, and he’s tied for fifth in the FantasyLabs ownership projections.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
- Austin Slater (1) ($3,300)
- Wilmer Flores (2) ($4,400)
- Darin Ruf (3) ($3,200)
- Yermin Mercedes (4) ($2,000)
- Thairo Estrada (5) ($4,200)
The Giants lineup provides fairly obvious value tonight, as their top five hitters check in at $17,100. They’re implied for a healthy 4.8 runs as they travel to Arizona to take on the Dimaondbacks and starter Tyler Gilbert ($5,300).
A lot is working in the Giants’ favor tonight. First is the conditions in Arizona. They have a solid 51 Park Factor and an excellent 88 weather rating for tonight’s game. The Gaints play in one of the toughest hitters parks in the majors and with consistently pitcher-friendly weather.
Next is the matchup with Gilbert, a left-handed pitcher. The Giants have an excellent 114 wRC+ against southpaws, comapred ot just 106 overall. Gilbert is no world-beater either: his SIERA and ERA are over five on the season.
Assuming their projected lineup holds, Mercedes as a minimum-priced cleanup hitter is the top value, but the whole stack is reasonably cheap for their likely outcomes. They’re a solid stack for all contest types today.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ 5.6-run implied total easily leads the slate on Monday, making them an obvious choice for the top stack on the board. They’re hosting the Nationals, who are giving the ball to Paolo Espino ($6,500) to start the game.
Espino isn’t a particularly exciting matchup, as he brings a solid 4.04 SIERA into the contest. However, his numbers are propped up by his usage as a bullpen arm early in the season. His ERA as a reliever in 2022 is 2.03; as a starter, it’s 4.88.
Beyond his own struggles, the brief nature of his starts is another good sign for Los Angeles. He’ll give way to a bullpen that ranks bottom-five in the majors in ERA, giving the Dodgers plenty of chances to continue to add runs throughout the contest.
This stack is pricy but attainable, given the cheaper viable pitching options on Monday. They feature three of the top four hitters in THE BAT’s median projections in Betts, Turner, and Freeman.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,600 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
Acuna leads all outfielders in median projection in the FantasyLabs system on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday. He’s also fairly affordable, especially considering today’s cheap pitching and stack options.
He has an appealing matchup with Ranger Suarez of the Phillies, who brings ERA and SIERA numbers over four into the contest. Suarez is also a left-hander, which benefits Acuna. While he doesn’t have extreme platoon splits, he’s done better work against southpaws in his career.
Javier Baez SS ($4,900 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres (Sean Manaea)
Speaking of platoon splits, Baez has mashed lefties throughout his career, and he’s also facing a left-hander on Monday. Baez has run his 2022 batting average up to .347 against lefties, with a .946 OPS. Unfortunately, his price tag has caught up to that trend, but he’s still a strong option.
He’s standing out especially for GPPs. With Manaea projecting as one of the more popular arms, hitters against him will be overlooked. Detroit doesn’t provide many strong leverage options, but Baez is an obvious choice.
Jurickson Profar OF ($3,800 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers (Drew Hutchison)
The Tigers decimated rotation has led to Drew Hutchison getting the nod on Monday. Hutchison has a 5.25 SIERA in 2022 as he tries to fill innings for Detroit. That adds some appeal to the Padres hitters, with Profar projecting as a strong value.
Profar is underpriced, considering his leadoff role on a team implied for 4.8 runs. While his numbers don’t jump off the page, his .725 OPS in 2022 is solid, and he provides some upside with his legs. The entirety of the Padres lineup is in play today, but Profar’s status as the leadoff hitter and his reasonable salary make him my favorite choice.
