The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yu Darvish ($9,400) San Diego Padres (-250) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Darvish is the obvious choice on today’s slate, largely thanks to excellent Vegas numbers. Pittsburgh has the lowest implied total on the slate by far, and the -250 moneyline odds for the Padres are the best on the board.
Pittsburgh is a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching, with a miserable 86 wRC+. That could benefit Darvish today, as his ERA is well higher than his leading indicators suggest it should be. His ERA is 4.36, but all of the ERA predictors have him in the mid-threes.
Darvish also boasts a solid strikeout rate just above 25%, giving him moderate upside with his rock-solid median projection. As a bonus, this game also has the best Park Factor and Weather rating for pitchers on the slate. Those won’t help with the strikeouts but will contribute to keeping runs off the board.
Darvish is unlikely to turn in a massive ceiling game, but his odds of paying off his salary are extremely high. That makes him an excellent cash game play, though I prefer to fade him in GPPs due to his likely popularity on today’s slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Patrick Corbin ($7,300) Washington Nationals (-142) vs. Colorado Rockies
What happens when an easily stopped force meets a highly movable object? That’s the question we’ll have answered tonight in Washington as the worst-hitting team against lefties takes on one of the worst southpaw starters over the past few seasons.
Colorado isn’t just bad against lefties; they’re dreadful. The difference between them and the 29th-ranked Twins is bigger than the gap between the Twins and the 16th-ranked team in terms of wRC+. Additionally, they also strike out at the highest rate against lefties.
On the other hand, Corbin has an ERA of 4.89 and a strikeout rate of just over 15% on the year. Those are bad numbers, and his xERA is over six, suggesting Corbin has been lucky not to have allowed even more runs. He’s a considerable risk today, but it could be worth taking, given the strength of the matchup.
I’m staying far, far away from Corbin in cash games, as a negative-point performance wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. However, he’ll be under the radar in GPPs in perhaps the one matchup we can project him for success. He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal proejction in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($10,600) Seattle Mariners (-115) at Minnesota Twins
This is the second consecutive start against the Twins for Castillo, who threw a gem last week when these teams met in Seattle. While he allowed three runs — including two homers — in six innings, he also struck out 11 Minnesota hitters, which is what we’ve come to expect from the Twins.
Castillo’s strikeout rate is vastly underperforming his swinging strike rate but still checks in at a very strong 27.7%. Based on his swinging strikes, though, it should be over 30%, so there’s some positive regression still to be found for Castillo.
Back-to-back matchups with the team that strikes out the most in the majors is an excellent way to realize that regression, and Castillo’s 7.21 K Prediction is the best on the slate by a solid margin.
Still, matchups with the Twins are always risky since they’re a solid offense overall. That should keep his ownership reasonable while offering plenty of upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers come into Monday as one of only three teams with a five-run total, making them a fairly obvious choice for the top stack of the day. They’re expensive, but the top of their lineup features two of the highest projected players at their positions in Smith and Betts.
They’re taking on Toronto and Jose Berrios ($9,200), a relatively tough matchup at first glance. However, while Berrios has a 3.39 ERA, his xERA is much worse at 4.59. Regression tends to hit in spots like this where the matchup is well worse than average.
That certainly describes the Dodgers, who rank third in wRC+ on the year against right-handed pitching. They should be able to get to Berrios tonight, and their high price tags will keep ownership at a reasonable level.
If you’re looking to go a little lower down the lineup, James Outman stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
CJ Abrams SS ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies (Jake Bird)
Abrams is quietly having a very strong sophomore season. He’s hitting a solid .256, with 10 home runs and 10 steals. His elite speed is his best attribute, and if he can cut down the strikeouts and make more contact, his batting average and steals numbers would benefit.
He has a good shot of doing so today against the Rockies’ Bird, who has a career strikeout rate of just 21%. With Abrams’ speed, simply putting the ball in play should be enough to get him on base. He’s the top-rated overall hitter in the Tournament Model when using THE BAT projections.
Randal Grichuk OF ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
I laid out the case for Corbin above, but it also makes sense to go the other way or hedge your Corbin exposure with some Rockies’ hitters. As we’d expect based on their awful team batting stats, there aren’t a ton of Rockies hitters with great stats against lefties this year.
Grichuk is one exception, though. Using our PlateIQ tool, it’s easy to see how much he stands out among Rockies hitters:
He’s an even better value on FanDuel today, where he has a 66% Bargain Rating.
Steven Kwan OF ($4,000 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals (Ryan Yarborough)
The Guardians are right up there with the Dodgers in terms of their implied total, sitting at a solid five heading into Monday’s contests. That makes them an interesting target against Yarborough, who’s returning from injury and has an ERA over five on the season.
Kwan is hitting first in their lineup, making him an obvious starting point for a Guardians’ stack. He also provides solid upside with his legs, with 15 steals so far this season. KWan is the highest-rated player on FanDuel in our Tournament models today.
