The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($10,300) New York Mets (+100) at Atlanta Braves
Scherzer was out for roughly six weeks with an injury, before making his return in his last start. DraftKings was sharp enough not to cut his salary much upon his return, keeping him at $10,000 for a start against the Reds. Given the matchup that was a slight discount, but not a major one.
Of course, he was utterly dominant, striking out 11 through six scoreless innings. Perhaps the most impressive part was that he lasted through a full six innings, given the relative scarcity of pitchers who are able/allowed to do so even when fully healthy.
There’s no reason to think he won’t be able to repeat that feat tonight. However, it’s hard to project an equal level of efficiency, considering the much tougher matchup. The Braves are a roughly top-five offense in the Majors this season.
They do strike out at the third highest rate though, which plays to Scherzer’s strengths. He’s had a strikeout rave of over 30% in eight consecutive seasons (counting 2022) with no signs of slowing down.
Consider him a slightly higher variance than normal option today, as it wouldn’t be shocking for Atlanta to find limited success against Scherzer. He’s still the best overall option though, leading both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems in median and ceiling projections.
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Aaron Nola ($10,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-112) at St. Louis Cardinals
Nola has the potential to go slightly overlooked today, with Scherzer standing out both in projections and in name recognition. However, Vegas has Nola as just as good of a play. His opponent run total of 3.8 is effectively identical to Scherzer’s 3.7, and Nola has better moneyline odds.
Since pairing the two is incredibly difficult from a salary standpoint, we’ll likely have to choose between Nola and Scherzer today. The decision comes down to matchup versus talent/ability. Both pitchers have somewhat difficult matchups, but are among the league’s best arms.
However, the Cardinals are a somewhat more forgiving matchup than Atlanta, with a 10 wRC+ compared to the Brave’s 110. Nola doesn’t quite have Scherzer numbers though, with a slightly higher SIERA and ERA paired with a strikeout rate of “only” 28%.
The $300 in salary isn’t super impactful, though I’d be comfortable pivoting from Scherzer to Nola if that $300 is meaningful at a different position. My read on the situation is that Nola is the slightly safer play — between Scherzer’s injury status and the matchup, the variance could be higher there.
Nola’s ceiling is lower though, and he trails Mad Max considerably in our K Prediction metric. Therefore I’m leaning towards Nola for cash and Scherzer for GPPs, though that could change before lock — particularly if Vegas lines move.
Nola ranks just behind Scherzer in the FantasyLabs projections, while coming in third in THE BAT’s.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Alex Cobb ($7,400) San Francisco Giants (-166) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Cobb is an obvious positive regression candidate. He comes into Monday with a 4.74 ERA on the season, but all of the leading indicators are considerably lower. His xERA, SIERA, FIP, and xFIP are all 3.07 or less. While there’s some debate over which of those is most predictive, they’re all saying the same thing about Cobb: He’s better than his ERA indicates.
Monday is a particularly good time for that regression to strike. He’s matched up with the Diamondbacks, who rank 25th in wRC+ in the majors. Betting markets certainly seem to think Cobb will have a good day, with Arizona having the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.4 runs.
Cobb will be a popular option to pair with one of the studs mentioned above, as his cheap salary makes lineup building much easier. While he doesn’t have their strikeout upside, at just $7,400 he doesn’t need it to pay off his salary.
He trails only the much cheaper Brayan Bello ($5,000) in THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projections on Monday.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Brayan Bello ($5,000) Boston Red Sox (-119) at Tampa Bay Rays
Speaking of Bello, he leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal. He’ll be making the second start of his big league career on Monday, with both coming against Tampa Bay.
Bello is/was a highly regarded prospect prior to his call up, posting a 2.81 ERA and 34% strikeout rate at triple-A Worcester before joining the big league team. His first start wasn’t exactly promising, with four runs allowed through four innings.
The talent is clearly there though, and this could conceivably be the cheapest we’re ever able to get him if he has a strong showing tonight. The matchup with Tampa makes him far too uncertain of a play for cash, but he makes sense as a GPP flier.
In addition to his excellent Pts/Sal projections, he leads the FantasyLabs Tournament Model ratings, thanks to his expected single-digit ownership on Monday.
Alex Faedo ($6,700) Detroit Tigers (+117) at Kansas City Royals
Faedo is another rookie who hasn’t quite lived up to expectation. The former first-round pick has struggled through his rookie season, with a 5.02 ERA and 18.2% strikeout rate.
Faedo missed the entirety of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and essentially skipped Triple-A, so he doesn’t even have Bello’s numbers in the high minors to rely on. What he does have, though, is the superior matchup, with Kansas City ranked as a bottom-10 offense.
Faedo hasn’t given us much reason to believe he’ll live up to his potential as a first-round pick, but he’s still a rookie and the jury is out on him. The time to take a shot on a player like that is in favorable matchups, which he certainly has tonight. He’s expected to be one of the least-owned arms on the slate, so he’s worth sprinkling in if building multiple lineups.
This game is also the second in a doubleheader, meaning Faedo is likely to pitch deeper into this one than usual. Whether that’s a good thing or not depends on how he’s doing early, but it increases the variance on his range of outcomes a bit. We like that for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Trent Grisham (1) ($2,900)
- Manny Machado (2) ($4,900)
- Jake Croneworth (3) ($4,100)
- Eric Hosmer (5) ($2,100)
- Nomar Mazara (6) ($2,000)
The Padres should be mega-chalk today, as they’re obscenely cheap but playing at Coors Field. It’s not even a difficult pitching matchup against Rockies Starter Jose Urena ($5,500). Urena has a 2.51 ERA, but all of his leading indicators suggest he’s been incredibly lucky
Urena has xFIP, xERA, and SIERA numbers all above six, which is a bad sign for his prospects tonight at Coors Field.His 40% fly ball rate is on the high side, and his 5% HR/FB ratio is unsustainable anywhere — but certainly at elevation.
What makes the Padres pricing even more puzzling, is they aren’t even a bad offense. They rank roughly league average in wRC+, with other metrics suppressed by their pitcher-friendly home stadium. You can even pivot at first base from Hosmer to Luke Voit ($3,600) and still not break the bank.
Hosmer has been nearly as productive though, so Voit is probably not worth the $1,500 in extra spending. Though he could be less popular, so he’s worth considering in order to save on ownership tonight. Regardless of how you construct them, Padres stacks are a near-must tonight.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling (outside of the Padres) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
No surprises here, as the other team playing at Coors represents the next best stack on the slate. Colorado is a slightly thinner proposition today though, thanks to a more challenging matchup with Sean Manaea ($9,200) of the Padres.
Manaea has been solid this season, with both his SIERA and ERA right around 4.00. There’s certainly some worrying signs though. His fly ball rate is over 42%, roughly 5% over the league average. His 25% strikeout rate is good but not great, so some extra balls in play could spell a long night for him.
Additionally, Manaea is a lefty, which is a huge benefit to the Rockies. They have an 89 wRC+ overall, but that number jumps to 108 against southpaws. Colorado is very cheap for a team with an implied 5.6-run total as well.
They aren’t as cheap — or implied for as many runs — as San Diego though, making them an interesting tournament stack. My favorite builds today feature the Padres paired with the Rockies lefty specialists, including Bryant (.971 career OPS against left handed pitching), Joe (.844), and Rodgers (.885).
Those three are all priced more in line with their overall performance than their performance against left-handed pitching, making them strong options even in a less-than-ideal matchup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Javier Baez SS ($4,400 DraftKings; NA FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
Baez had a dreadful start to the season, but has turned it around over the past month or so. His season-long numbers are still down thanks to that start, but he’s averaging a solid 8.6 DraftKings points over the last month. He’s an especially good play today, for a number of reasons.
First is the matchup. The Royals Daniel Lynch ($9,900) has had an inauspicious start to his big-league career, with a 4.78 SIERA and 5.33 ERA since he joined the big league’s last season. His 22.4% strikeout rate is also on the lower side, which is helpful with the free-swinging Baez.
Next is Baez’s platoon advantage. He has a career OPS of .885 against lefties like Lynch, compared to just .733 against righties. That trend is consistent into this season, where he’s hitting a tremendous .338 against lefties, and .175 overall.
Finally, this game is part of a doubleheader as mentioned above. Lynch could be left past the point of effectiveness of the Royals bullpen is taxed in Game 1. That means more ABs against a lefty for Baez, and potentially against an ineffective or fatigued lefty.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,200 DraftKings; $4,000 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox (Lance Lynn)
I wrote on Friday about Ramirez as a potential positive regression candidate, and he delivered. Across a three-game weekend series against the Royals, he scored a total of 43 DraftKings points, with five hits (three for extra bases) and a steal.
His resurgence could continue this week, with an easy matchup on Monday. The White Sox Lance Lynn ($8,200) isn’t the pitcher he used to be, with a 5.33 ERA on the season. Ramirez is an excellent tournament pivot from Machado of the Padres, who’s expected to be in roughly three times as many lineups.
Ramirez leads THE BAT’s DraftKings projections at third base, while trailing only Machado in the FantasyLabs set.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer #21 of the New York Mets.
Photo credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images.
