The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($10,600) New York Mets (-250) at Washington Nationals
Mad Max is an obvious top option on Monday, as he returns to Washington to face the team that traded him away roughly a year ago. Scherzer missed all of June but has been his usual dominant self since returning to the rotation. In his five starts since coming back, he’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in each of them and twice broke 30.
It’s an excellent matchup against the struggling Nationals. Washington features a bottom-10 lineup on the season but has been getting worse as of late. With rumors swirling around a potential trade of superstar Juan Soto, this is a team without much to play for.
That’s a problem against a pitcher like Scherzer. He has a strikeout rate north of 30% for the eighth season in a row, and his 2.09 ERA is more or less supported by his 2.50 FIP and 2.73 SIERA. The 38-year-old shows no signs of slowing down, and there’s no reason to believe the Nationals will change that.
He’s an excellent play in all contest types, as he leads the FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Mike Clevinger ($8,300) San Diego Padres (-205) vs. Colorado Rockies
Clevinger has excellent Vegas data on Monday, with a slate-leading 3.2-run opponent implied total and solid -205 moneyline odds. He’s taking on the Rockies, a team that’s struggled offensively outside the thin Denver air.
The Rockies will almost always have decent offensive statistics until you adjust for their ballpark. However, their 86 wRC+ against righties — which is park-adjusted — is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. This game features slightly above-average Park Factor and Weather Rating scores for pitchers, so we can even slightly adjust the Rockies down from their usual numbers.
Clevinger has also been excellent himself. He has a 3.38 ERA and a solid 24% strikeout rate. While we generally prefer a bit more strikeout upside from our pitchers, at $8,300, he doesn’t need a monster score to help your lineup.
He leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projection while coming in as a top-five option in the FantasyLabs projections.
Michael Kopech ($7,000) Chicago White Sox (-175) vs. Kansas City Royals
Kopech’s numbers have suffered a bit this season, taking on a full-time starting role. Still, he’s been solid with a 3.16 ERA and 21.4% strikeout rate heading into this one. Given his FIP and SIERA numbers are in the fours, there is some concern about regression, but that’s not a huge factor against the Royals.
Kansas City has been a bottom-eight offense against righties all season, and they just traded away one of their best hitters. They’re implied for four runs today, but that’s a tolerable number for a $7,000 pitcher. Kopech is unlikely to post a monster score, but he’s an excellent option to pair with an expensive arm for cash games.
He leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal on Monday.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tarik Skubal ($8,000) Detroit Tigers (+104) at Minnesota Twins
After a rough June, Skubal has regained his form. He’s outscored his salary-based expectations in three of his four July starts, including a dominant 33-point outing against Oakland. Fortunately, he’s still reasonably priced, providing a buy-low opportunity today.
Of course, it’s a difficult matchup with Minnesota, which should keep his ownership repressed. It’s currently projected outside the top five pitchers, making him a solid leverage play.
We’ve seen his upside this season, even in difficult matchups, and it’s a testament to him that the Tigers are only slight underdogs in Minnesota. His ceiling projection and K Prediction both rank third on the slate in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
- Steven Kwan (1) ($4,400)
- Amed Rosario (2) ($4,200)
- Jose Ramirez (3) ($5,800)
- Josh Naylor (4) ($4,200)
- Andres Giminez (5) ($4,000)
The Guardians’ 5.1-run total is near the top of the slate as they host the Diamondbacks in Cleveland. They’re facing pitcher Zach Davies ($6,900), who comes into the matchup with a 3.94 ERA but SIERA and FIP numbers above 4.00.
Cleveland is a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching, making this an attractive matchup. Outside of Ramirez, their salaries are also fairly reasonable, making them easy to fit around any of the available pitching options on Monday.
Be careful, though, as there is rain forecasted around Cleveland this evening. It appears that a full PPD is unlikely — and a mid-game delay is probably a boost to bats — but be sure to follow our MLB News as we approach lock time. It’s a high-risk, high-reward situation, as ownership on the Guardians could be suppressed by weather concerns.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets are THE BAT’s preferred stack on Monday, taking on Patrick Corbin ($6,600) and the Nationals. Corbin has been brutal this season, with a 6.49 ERA through 21 starts. While he’s mixed in the occasional strong performance, those have mostly come against bottom-tier offenses.
The Mets are decidedly not that, with a 108 wRC+ against left-handed pitching on the season. They should have no problem getting to Corbin or the Diamondbacks’ substandard bullpen.
As an added bonus, the Mets are the only road team with a run total above five on the slate. That means a few more guaranteed at-bats compared to the other top stacks. That’s enough to make the difference between taking down a tournament and finishing outside of the top 10 some days, so it’s worth considering as you build lineups.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Javier Baez SS ($4,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (Devin Smeltzer)
I will continue to ride Baez against lefties thanks to his ridiculous platoon splits. His career OPS is .885 against southpaws, with an even more dramatic split in 2022. This season he’s hitting .338 with a .920 OPS against lefties. Tigers outfielder Robbie Grossman ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) is projected to follow Baez in the lineup, and he also has solid platoon splits at a bargain price.
Baez is even more appealing on FanDuel, where his $2,600 salary represents a 93% Bargain Rating. He’s also eligible as both a SS and 2B, which is a nice bonus, if not curious. According to FanGraphs, Baez has played all of zero games at 2B this season.
Marcus Semien 2B/SS ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles (Spenser Watkins)
Semien leads THE BAT’s DraftKings projections for second basemen while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs projections. That makes him a solid value at an affordable $4,700. He packs a ton of upside, with 14 home runs and 19 steals on the season.
He’s also due for some positive regression, with a .256 BABIP that’s too low for a player with his speed. His 8.8% HR/FB ratio is also below his career average.
Curiously, He’s listed strictly at second base on FanDuel, despite actually playing 14 games as a shortstop this season.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,400 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
It’s an excellent time to load up on the free-swinging Yankees as they take on Marco Gonzales ($7,100) of the Mariners. Gonzales has a dreadful 12.4% strikeout rate on the season. That helps Judge significantly, as his 25.9% strikeout rate is on the higher side.
Third baseman Josh Donaldson ($3,900 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) also has my attention from the Yankees. He has a 27.2% strikeout rate himself. Both Donaldson and Judge have higher OPS numbers against lefties like Gonzales than righties, with Donaldson’s splits more pronounced.
Judge leads all hitters on DraftKings in THE BAT and FantasyLabs median and ceiling projections.
