The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 7-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Chris Bassitt ($9,300) New York Mets (-310) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday’s slate is relatively thin for actual front-line starting pitching, but Bassitt comes close. He has ERA and SIERA numbers in the mid-threes in 2022 with a very solid 24.3% strikeout rate. While none of those numbers are excellent — especially at his salary — they’re all quality.
What is excellent is his matchup with the bottom-five Reds offense. Cincinnati has just an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the season. Bassitt’s Vegas data is the best on the slate as well. The Mets are massive -310 favorites, and the 3.2-run implied total on the Reds is tied for the lowest on the board.
Bassitt’s salary is a bit more tolerable today since no other pitchers are priced above $9,000. f you roster him, you’ll still have plenty of salary left for your bats regardless of the pitcher he’s paired with.
He leads the FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling projections while coming in second in THE BAT.
Blake Snell ($8,800) San Diego Padres (-184) vs. San Francisco Giants
Snell has similar run prevention numbers to Bassitt on the season, with a 3.66 SIERA and slightly elevated 4.16 ERA. He stands out with his excellent 30.2% strikeout rate. If that number holds, 2022 would be the fifth consecutive season that Snell strikes out at least 30% of the batters he faces.
Of course, he has a considerably more difficult matchup than Bassitt today. The Giants are a top-ten offense against left-handed pitching, with a 112 wRC+. That’s reflected in the Vegas line, which has the Padres as moderate favorites. The Giants are implied for just 3.5 runs, but four other teams have lower totals than that.
Three of those pitchers with lower implied opponent totals are cheaper than Snell. However, none can match his massive strikeout upside. He leads the slate in K Prediction at 6.87, with Bassitt the only other pitcher projected for more than six.
Snell is the superior GPP play to Bassitt, with the combination of a cheaper salary, slightly lower ownership, and a higher ceiling standing out.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Keegan Thompson ($6,700) Chicago Cubs (-198) vs. Washington Nationals
Thompson is a second-year pitcher used primarily in the bullpen last season and to start 2022. He’s coming into his own as a starter, though, with reasonable numbers on the season. He has a 21.2% strikeout rate and 3.48 ERA this year, though those numbers are boosted by his time in the bullpen.
He’s also had an extremely rough recent schedule, with three of his last four starts coming against the Cardinals, Mets, and Dodgers. He pitched a gem in his only outing against a team that isn’t one of baseball’s best lineups. That start was against the Pirates, and he went seven innings without allowing an earned run while striking out seven.
He’s taking on the Nationals on Monday, whose current lineup is much closer to Pittsburgh’s than the aforementioned top offenses. At just $6,700, he’s a massive value considering his excellent betting lines; Washington is implied for just 3.2 runs.
Thompson leads the FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal while coming in third in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Gilbert ($8,400) Seattle Mariners (+104) vs. New York Yankees
It’s not often we see the Yankees implied for just four runs. That’s the case Monday, which piqued my interest in Gilbert of the Mariners. He’s been strong this year, with a 3.09 ERA and 22.7% strikeout rate.
New York is also reasonably short-handed, with Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton expected to miss time. While there are still plenty of tough bats to worry about, it’s a somewhat easier matchup for Gilbert than the Yankees usually present.
This game is also in Seattle, a pitcher-friendly park. The 75 Park Factor for Gilbert trails only the game in Oakland for the best Park Factor on the slate. Against a lineup full of home run hitters, an extra few feet of outfield for Gilbert could be crucial tonight.
Best of all, he’s projected for single-digit ownership on Monday, despite having a top-five median and ceiling projection in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s projections.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- Lourdes Gurriel (1) ($4,000)
- Vladamir Guerrero Jr. (2) ($6,100)
- Alejandro Kirk (3) ($4,300)
- Teoscar Hernandez (4) ($4,600)
- Bo Bichette (5) ($4,500)
Toronto has the top implied total of any road team on Monday, checking in at 5.2 runs. They’re traveling to Baltimore to take on Jordan Lyles ($7,100) of the Orioles. Lyles has been mediocre on the season, with his ERA and SIERA sitting at an identical 4.44.
The Blue Jays have been anything but mediocre, trailing only the Yankees and Dodgers in wRC+ on the season. All five members of this stack rank inside the top-ten hitters in median projection in the FantasyLabs model, a ridiculous proportion for just one team.
Despite that, the stack is somewhat affordable, costing roughly $4,700 per player. That’s out of reach on some slates, but with the lack of expensive arms, it’s very doable today. They’re a solid choice for all formats on Monday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Mets:
The Mets’ 5.7-run implied total leads the slate by a decent margin, but they come with a high price tag. While that’s not ideal, it could help keep their ownership levels in check.
They’re facing Justin Dunn ($6,600) of the Reds, who’s yet to make a big-league appearance in 2022. However, he accumulated SIERA and FIP numbers over five in sporadic action for the Mariners from 2019-2021. The fact that he spent the bulk of 2022 in the minor leagues is another sign he’s a pitcher worth attacking today.
There are also cheaper ways to build around the Mets, with a pivot from Alonso to number five hitter Dan Vogelbach saving $2,400 in salary. While Alonso’s raw projections are much higher, Vogelbach’s Pts/Sal projection is better, and his ownership should be somewhat reduced.
If you can afford them, stacking the Mets is a strong option in cash games and GPPs tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Rafael Ortega OF ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals (Anibal Sanchez)
Ortega isn’t the most exciting choice, with a .685 OPS in 2022. However, he has an excellent matchup with Anibal Sanchez ($6,500) of the Nationals. Sanchez is nowhere near the pitcher he once was, with a 7.65 ERA in 2022. The Cubs are implied for 4.4 runs on Monday, with Ortega set to leadoff.
Getting a leadoff hitter in those conditions for just $2,600 is a solid value, provided he does hit first in the Cubs lineup. He’s a top-five option in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for Pts/Sal, and the savings he provides makes it much easier to fit Blue Jays or Mets stacks.
Josh Rojas 3B ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Tyler Beede)
Tyler Beede ($6,400) is the listed starter for the Pirates, but it will essentially be a bullpen day. Beede has made just one start in 2022 among 25 appearances, with a total of 41.2 innings pitched. The Pirates bullpen is extremely attackable, with an ERA of 4.44 in 2022.
That makes Rojas a deal as the Diamondbacks’ likely leadoff hitter, particularly on FanDuel. He leads the FantasyLabs median projections at third base while also holding a 91% Bargain Rating. Ketel Marte ($3,300), hitting third for the Diamondbacks, is another strong FanDuel value on Monday.
Jake Fraley OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (Chris Bassitt)
If fading a popular pitcher like Bassitt, it’s a solid strategy to increase your leverage by rostering hitters against them. If the pitcher gives up a hit to a player in your lineup, you double the benefit: points for you and points taken away from your opponents.
Unfortunately, the Reds don’t provide a ton of appealing leverage options. Fraley is one possibility. He’s minimum-priced on DraftKings and projected for the second-most points on the Reds in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems.
