The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($9,600) Milwaukee Brewers (-245) vs. Colorado Rockies
Peralta comes in today with the best median and ceiling projection in THE BAT while ranking behind only the much more expensive options in the FantasyLabs models. While Colorado isn’t quite as bad against right-handed pitching as they are against lefties, they’re still one of the softest matchups on the slate, making this a good spot for Peralta and the Brewers.
Not that he needs a soft matchup to succeed. Peralta has an excellent 28.3% strikeout rate on the season, with a swinging strike rate of 13.4%. At first glance, he’s struggled in run prevention with a 4.46 ERA. However, he’s been one of the more unlucky arms this season, with an xERA of 3.78.
He’s started to realize some of that positive regression in recent starts, topping 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five outings. All of those came against better offenses than the Rockies, with the lone exception to the 20-point rule coming against the best offense in baseball against righties.
Vegas is also sending some strong signals, with a 3.5-run implied total for the Rockies and strong moneyline odds for the Brewers. He’s an affordable ace in a great matchup, making him an obvious play tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Dane Dunning ($7,200) Texas Rangers (-225) at Oakland A’s
In some ways, Dunning is the inverse of Peralta. He has a low strikeout rate of 17% but has been excellent in run prevention. His ERA is just 3.14, though his leading indicators are all in the low fours. That suggests some negative regression for Dunning, but it probably won’t hit tonight.
That’s because of the matchup with Oakland, who have a poor 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That’s only slightly better than the Rockies’ mark of 84 and well within the bottom ten in baseball. Oakland also strikes out at the third-highest rate, which should help Dunning notch a few more Ks than usual tonight.
While Dunning doesn’t have the highest ceiling, that’s not a huge issue at his low salary. He checks in as the Pts/Sal leader in the FantasyLabs projections while coming in fourth in THE BAT.
Dunning also grades out well from a fantasy perspective using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,800) Atlanta Braves (-300) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Based on the ownership projections, it seems that DraftKings has finally found a price point for Strider that makes playing him a somewhat tough decision. Still, it might not be enough to dissuade too many people: Strider has more than 2X’d this salary in six of his last seven appearances.
It’s also not a matchup to be wary of, as Pittsburgh has a top-10 strikeout rate against righties and an 88 wRC+. That means Strider should, in theory, outperform his absurd 39.3% strikeout rate on the season. He might even catch some positive regression in the runs department, with a 2.69 xFIP that’s nearly a full run lower than his 3.61 ERA.
It comes down to the salary, though, with Strider priced $1,500 more expensive than the next priciest arm, Gerrit Cole. He’ll need to create considerable separation between himself and the next-highest score to make the optimal lineup tonight and hopefully have some cheaper bats come through as well.
That’s precisely what he’s done all season, averaging 25.6 DraftKings points per game. It’s tough to find the salary for cash games, but Strider is an excellent GPP option tonight at what should be low ownership by his standards.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston stands out today with the top implied team total on the slate. At six runs, they narrowly edge out Atlanta, who has the next-best implied total.
Crucially, Boston is much cheaper on average than a similar Braves stack, an important consideration given the high-end pitchers we’d like to fit into our lineups today. While they aren’t exactly a bargain, they make it possible to fit Strider and a cheap arm or two other high-end pitchers.
They’re taking on lefty Cole Ragans ($5,200) of the Royals, a mediocre starter with a 4.33 ERA on the season. This game is also in Boston, which means a slate-leading 81 Park Factor for righties and a still-solid 71 mark for the left-handed members of this stack.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jake Bauers 1B/OF ($2,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
The stars have aligned for Bauers tonight. He’s far too cheap for his leadoff position in the Yankees lineup, at least on DraftKings. His 97% Bargain Rating is one of the top marks on the slate.
He’s also a lefty with solid platoon splits against right-handed pitching taking on a pitcher in Cease who struggles against lefties. Cease has allowed a .340 wOBA and .181 ISO to left-handed hitters this season, both well higher than his overall numbers.
Additionally, Bauers fits nicely around the Red Sox stack mentioned above. Boston’s Justin Turner can be played at second base instead of first, or Bauers can be used as an outfielder. He’s an excellent budget option on a day when saving salary will be essential.
Ezequiel Duran SS/OF ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Texas Rangers at Oakland A’s (Ken Waldichuk)
Speaking of budget options with multi-position eligibility, we have Ezequiel Duran. He’s set to bat third for the Rangers against the left-handed Waldichuk, with Texas implied for a very strong 5.3 runs.
I immediately noticed Duran when browsing the PlateIQ tool today, thanks to his excellent numbers against southpaw hurlers:
David Fry 1B/C ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Hyun Jin Ryu)
There’s a limited supply of catcher-eligible hitters hitting in the top half of the lineup most days. Today, there are only four, and three are priced above $4,000 on DraftKings. The lone exception is Fry, with a much more palatable $2,500 price tag.
The rookie has a fairly limited sample size against lefties of just 39 career plate appearances, but it’s been promising. He has a .286 batting average and an .873 OPS. I don’t have much confidence that he will maintain those numbers long-term, but with his price tag and position, I’m willing to take the chance tonight.
