The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,400) Milwaukee Brewers (TBD) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Even without Vegas lines on this game, Burnes is popping in our models Monday. He’ll likely end up as the slate’s heaviest favorite today when lines on his game are released.
Burnes is in the unique position of being the best pitcher on the slate while simultaneously having the best matchup. Not even “arguably” the best matchup either: with Oakland and Detroit both with rest days, the Pirates are easily the worst offense in play.
Burnes also has all the numbers we look for from our DFS pitchers. His 31.4% strikeout rate is sixth in the majors among qualified starters. He’s also excelled in run prevention, with ERA, xERA, and SIERA numbers all below 3.00.
Given the small slate and lack of top options, Burnes’ ownership will likely be astronomical on Monday. However, he’s worth eating the chalk and trying to differentiate elsewhere. He leads the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections by at least seven points over the next closest option.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Frankie Montas ($7,200) New York Yankees (-180) at Los Angeles Angels
Montas began his Yankees career in disappointing fashion, allowing six earned runs in two of his first three starts in pinstripes. However, he turned things around in his last outing, holding the potent Mets lineup to just two runs in 5.2 innings.
He has a much easier task tonight against the floundering Angels. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs, which is currently the second-lowest on the slate. That will likely slip to third once lines come out in the Brewers game, but it’s still a good sign for the ninth-most expensive pitcher.
His overall numbers on the season are much stronger than they’ve been recently. He holds a 3.84 ERA, with similar SIERA, xERA, and FIP marks. His 23.9% strikeout rate is also solid, and he trails only Burnes in K Prediction on Monday.
Montas is behind only Burnes in Pts/Sal and median projection in the FantasyLabs projections while coming in third in THE BAT. He’s an excellent option to pair with Burnes.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Carlos Rodon ($10,900) San Francisco Giants (-135) vs. San Diego Padres
Rodon is also in the conversation for best pitcher on the slate. He’s actually been slightly better than Burnes in both run prevention and strikeouts, with his 32.1% K rate third in the majors in 2022. However, he’s projecting as a far worse play today due to the matchup.
He’s taking on a Padres team that ranks 14th in wRC+ this season, but most of that production came before the trade for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. The Padres have been a top-five offense since acquiring the pair at the start of August.
On the other hand, Rodon is a lefty, so he should have an edge against the left-handed Soto. They’re a roughly league-average offense against southpaws, so the matchup is slightly better than it appears on paper.
Still, it’s nowhere near as appealing a matchup as the one Burnes has today. That makes spending the extra $600 on Rodon a challenge on paper. The case for Rodon then comes down to ownership, and he’s projected for roughly half that of Burnes.
Rodon is an intriguing GPP play since he has the strikeout upside to compete with anyone. He’s a plus-EV option in large field contests thanks to the ownership discount, despite trailing Burnes in the projections.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- Lars Nootbaar (1) ($3,000)
- Brendan Donovan (2) ($3,200)
- Paul Goldschmidt (3) ($6,200)
- Nolan Arenado (4) ($5,600)
- Corey Dickerson (5) ($2,200)
The Cardinals are shockingly cheap on Monday — assuming their projected lineup holds up — relative to their slate-leading 5.8-run implied total. Even with Goldschmidt and Arenado combining for $11,800, the entirety of the stack comes in at just over $20,000.
Chase Anderson is expected to make the start for the Reds, and it will be his first start in the majors this season. Anderson pitched to a dreadful 6.75 ERA over 48 innings last season, and he was even worse in 2020. Once Anderson departs, the Reds’ bullpen ranks dead last in team ERA. Overall, it doesn’t get much better from a matchup perspective.
With the Cardinals as the visiting team, their top batters have a great chance at five plate appearances. This game being in Cincinnati also gives them the best Park Factor for hitters on the slate and above-average hitting weather.
The Cards are a fairly obvious play on Monday, with Goldschmidt and Arenado as two of the three hitters with double-digit median projections in the FantasyLabs Models.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies are the only other visiting team implied for at least five runs on Monday, checking in at exactly 5.0. They’re in Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks, who are featuring starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner ($6,700).
Bumgarner has had his moments in 2022 but has been mostly awful. He comes into this one with a 4.53 ERA and slightly worse numbers in FIP, xERA, and SIERA. That’s bad news against a Phillies team that recently returned Bryce Harper and also has a 115 wRC+ against left-handed pitching on the season.
Swapping in Nick Castellanos ($4,300) for either Harper or Kyle Schwarber could also be a strong play today. With Schwarber and Harper batting lefty, they’re on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the southpaw Bumgarner.
Castellanos has excellent platoon splits — this season and throughout his career — against left-handers. In 2022, he’s hitting .305 against southpaws but .253 against righties. With the salary savings pivoting to him provides, he’s a solid option.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Glebyer Torres 2B ($3,800 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Suarez)
The Yankees have a solid 4.7-run implied total as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Angels. Torres is a solid option to get some exposure to the Yankees without breaking the bank as the projected cleanup hitter in their lineup. They have a matchup with left-handed Jose Suarez ($6,900).
Torres has excellent splits against left-handed pitching, with an .853 OPS in 2022. That makes him my preferred option at second base from the Yankees over DJ LeMahieu ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel), at least on DraftKings. LeMahieu is the better overall hitter, but Torres has stronger numbers against southpaws.
Carson Kelly C ($3,700 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
Kelly is another hitter I’m interested in primarily for his platoon splits. He’s facing the left-handed Ranger Suarez ($8,800) of the Phillies on Monday. Kelly has weak overall numbers in 2022 with a .643 OPS, but that mark jumps to .713 against lefties.
While that’s still not exceptional, Kelly is also a leadoff-hitting catcher, a valuable role. He’s the only one currently projected on Monday’s slate. Every other backstop projected to hit in the top six for his team costs at least $5,000 on DraftKings.
Kelly is a better on-paper play on FanDuel, where he holds an 83% Bargain Rating. However, since catchers aren’t mandatory there, his appeal is slightly limited. I’m happy to play him on both sites on Monday.
Christian Yelich OF ($4,100 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Robert Stephenson)
The former MVP is still underpriced despite a recent hot streak. He’s hit safely in 13 of his last 30 at-bats, with two home runs in that span. He has an excellent matchup with Robert Stephenson ($4,000) of the Pirates on Monday. Stephenson is generally a reliever, tallying more appearances than innings pitched in 2022.
Despite his role out of the bullpen, his numbers are downright ugly. Stephenson comes into this one with a 6.04 ERA, and pitchers generally perform worse in starting roles. Expect a high total for the Brewers once lines are released for this game.
While there are plenty of solid outfield options on Monday, Yelich is at least worth a look at his cheap salary. His combination of power and speed provide plenty of upside, and he’s currently projected for relatively low ownership.
