The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($11,300) New York Mets (-162) at New York Yankees
Scherzer’s salary is over the $11,000 mark for the second start in a row. Last time, he put up a solid 22 points in a win against the Braves. While that’s a good raw total, DFS players who rostered him were certainly hoping for more.
Still, it was a strong outing considering the quality of the competition. That’s relevant here because — in theory at least — the Yankees are another tough matchup for Scherzer. The Yankees have the league’s second-best wRC+ for the season while ranking at or near the top in most offensive categories.
However, the Yankees are embroiled in quite a slump. They’ve scored just 25 runs in their past 12 games, a streak that includes four shutouts. A date with Scherzer seems unlikely to fix that. Max has been excellent this year, with all his ERA indicators below three and a strikeout rate over 30%.
Vegas has the Yankees implied for just 3.4 runs today, indicating Scherzer has the edge. Whether he does enough to justify his salary is the bigger question. His 23-point median in the FantasyLabs model is solid but not great on a points-per-dollar basis.
On the other hand, reduced ownership on Scherzer makes him a strong GPP option. He has the potential to break this slate. That said, I’d keep my exposure to him strictly in GPPs since the salary is too prohibitive for cash games.
Also, make sure to keep an eye on the weather. There is precipitation in the forecast, so there could be some delay risk.
Julio Urias ($10,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Urias trails only Scherzer and Springs in the FantasyLabs Models while leading THE BAT as he takes on the Brewers tonight.
Milwaukee struggles heavily with left-handed pitching. They’re a bottom-five offense against southpaws by wRC+, checking in at 86. That’s a notable contrast from their overall mark of 103. This discrepancy hasn’t gone unnoticed by Vegas, who have the Brewers with just a three-run total.
Of course, some of that is due to Urias. He has an excellent 2.40 ERA on the season. While his ERA indicators are slightly worse, they still reflect the strong year he’s having. While his 24% strikeout rate isn’t exceptional, it’s still a solid mark.
Urias is somewhat limited in terms of upside but is a strong overall bet. With the $1,100 in savings from Scherzer, he’s also expected to be the most popular arm on the slate. I prefer Scherzer for GPPs, but Urias is the stronger cash game option.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jeffrey Springs ($7,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-220) at Los Angeles Angels
Springs leads the FantasyLabs projections for median while coming in second in THE BAT. At his salary, that makes him a massive value on Monday. His Pts/Sal projections lead both systems by a wide margin.
The former reliever has made a smooth transition to starting work this season. As a starter, Springs has a 2.85 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate. While he doesn’t have the longest starts, he’s lasted at least five innings in four straight outings. The lack of longevity lowers Springs’ ceiling a bit, but it’s more than acceptable given his moderate salary.
Springs also has arguably the best matchup on the slate on Monday. While the Angels’ offense overall isn’t terrible, Springs is a lefty. The Angels feature an 82 wRC+ against southpaws, the third worst in the league. They’re implied for just 2.9 runs today.
Springs is an excellent choice in all contest types. He’s projected to be the most popular option today, but the combination of salary and matchup may be too good to pass up.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Edward Cabrera ($8,800) Miami Marlins (-141) at Oakland A’s
Cabrera has been rolling since returning from the injured list earlier this month. Through three starts, he’s pitched 15.2 scoreless innings while striking out 21. Those appearances included tough outings against the Phillies and the Padres and an easier matchup with Chicago.
Tonight’s start certainly falls on the easier end of the spectrum as Miami travels to Oakland. The A’s are ahead of only the Tigers in most offensive categories, and they’re implied for just 3.3 runs against Cabrera and the Marlins tonight.
The real appeal to rostering Cabrera is the strikeout upside. His 21 strikeouts in just under 16 innings is very impressive, and his K Prediction ranks fourth on the slate. If he can last five or six innings, he could easily challenge for the top strikeout mark on the slate.
Of course, his ability to last deep into games is highly questionable. He was pulled after just four innings in his last start, despite not allowing a run. That uncertainty is what makes him a solid GPP option, though. He’s projecting outside the top five in ownership, but his upside is nearly as strong as any arm on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (1) ($5,400)
- Dansby Swanson (2) ($4,900)
- Austin Riley (3) ($5,100)
- Matt Olson (4) ($4,600)
- William Contreras (5) ($4,200)
Atlanta is in an ideal stacking situation today. Not only do they have the slate’s highest overall total, but they’re on the road. They’re taking on Roansy Contreras ($7,300) of the Pirates, who’s making his second start since returning from an extended stay on the injured list.
Even when healthy, Contreras has been mediocre at best this season. His 4.02 ERA is reasonable, but his 5.23 xERA paints a different picture. The Braves could bring some of that regression to light in a hurry today.
Of course, the Braves aren’t cheap. They’re a difficult stack to pair with Urias or Scherzer, but that should keep their ownership somewhat reasonable. They’re a solid choice in both tournaments and cash games.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Braves DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are another strong but expensive stack on Monday’s slate. They have a 5.1-run total as they play host to the Brewers and Eric Lauer ($9,000). Lauer has been solid this season but is a massive underdog to the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are the best offense in baseball by wRC+, with a mark of 121. They’re firmly in play as a stack against all but the elite pitchers, and Lauer certainly isn’t one of them.
It’s also a crowded slate for bats, with four teams implied for at least five runs. That should keep ownership down, particularly on the more expensive lineups. The Dodgers certainly fit that bill, and they have slate-breaking potential.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Jose Miranda 1B/3B ($3,900 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers (Cole Ragans)
The Twins are another team with an implied total north of five today. They have an excellent pitching matchup, with Cole Ragans ($5,700) of the Rangers coming to town. Ragans has struggled through three big-league starts, with an ERA of 5.02.
He’s also a lefty, which is good news for Miranda. Miranda has eight of his 13 home runs this season against southpaws, despite having less than a third of his plate appearances against lefties. That’s resulted in an OPS nearly 100 points higher when he has the platoon edge.
Miranda is a solid salary-saver today, particularly on DraftKings, where he has a 69% Bargain Rating.
Nick Madrigal 2B ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery)
Madrigal is another solid salary-saver on DraftKings today. At just $2,800, he’s a substantial value as the Cubs’ leadoff hitter, even if nothing else was going his way. However, he’s also a prime regression candidate. He’s batting .255 this year after having consecutive .300 seasons, and his BABIP is the lowest of his career.
He’s also on the right side of his platoon splits against the left-handed Jordan Montgomery ($8,300). Madrigal has hit lefties about 10 points better in his career.
Tyler O’Neill OF ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Chciago Cubs (Drew Smyly)
With all the left-handed pitching on the slate, finding hitters with strong platoon splits will be crucial on Monday. O’Neill fits that mold perfectly. In 2022, he’s hitting .277 against lefties, compared to just .214 against righties. His career numbers are similarly divided, though the discrepancy is less extreme.
He’s facing lefty Drew Smyly ($7,500) of the Cubs. Smyly is having a solid but unspectacular year, with SIERA and xERA marks in the low fours. The Cardinals are implied for a solid 4.9 runs today, but I want to keep my exposure to their hitters that do well against lefties.
O’Neill is a far better value on FanDuel, where he holds a 93% Bargain Rating.
