The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Lucas Giolito ($9,300) Los Angeles Angels (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Giolito is the obvious top option today, with a slate-leading median projection in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets. The Angels trade-deadline acquisition has had a rough go of it so far in Los Angeles, but he’s faced much tougher competition in his early starts with the club than he does today.
The Reds are a slightly below-average offense on the season, but they’ve performed even worse lately, ranking 25th in wRC+ since July 1st. They also have a strikeout rate of over 26% in that period, which helps to boost the ceiling for Giolito.
While Giolito isn’t a massive strikeout pitcher, he routinely has a strikeout rate in the mid-20s, high enough to have the occasional spiked game in the right circumstances. Giolito is a strong play for cash games and smaller-field GPPs, though I’d probably pass on him in large-field contests thanks to a very high ownership projection.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Paul Blackburn ($7,000) Oakland A’s (-132) vs. Kansas City Royals
The fact that Vegas has the A’s as moderate favorites is a strong sign here. With Oakland being one of the worst-performing offenses in baseball, being the favored side of a matchup is telling.
Of course, it’s not necessarily Blackburn’s numbers driving those odds. He’s been solid this season, with his ERA and predictive measures all in the high-three to low-four range. He’s not a massive strikeout arm, but he has a reasonable 22.9% rate on the season.
It’s the Royals’ ineptitude that really stands out. They rank 28th in baseball against right-handed pitching by wRC+ and are implied for a fairly low 4.1 runs. That’s an excellent number relative to Blackburn’s salary, making him an exceptional value.
He trails only minimum-priced MLB debutante Drew Rom ($4,000) in Pts/Sal in the FantasyLabs projections while being the much safer pick.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($10,300) Seattle Mariners (-190) at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have recently slipped to last place in the MLB against right-handed pitching. That’s thanks to a 78 wRC+ in August, with a 25.4% strikeout rate.
That makes this an excellent opportunity for Castillo, whose 27.3% strikeout rate leads the main slate among all full starters. The White Sox’s 3.7-run implied total is also the second-lowest on the slate, giving Castillo some relative safety to go with his massive strikeout upside.
The only thing keeping Castillo from being the top pick today is his price tag. At a full $1,000 more than Giolito and with similar projections, it’s easy to take the savings today. However, that makes Castillo something of a “pay-up to be contrarian” choice. While he’s not a deep sleeper by any stretch, he’s projecting well behind Giolito (and Blackburn) in projected ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
There’s no shortage of attractive stacks today, with six teams implied for at least five runs on an eight-game slate. Texas is one of them, with a 5.0-run total on the road in Arizona.
Their status as a road team helps separate the Rangers from the pack, as one more trip to the plate could make the difference in which team finishes with the best score. They also have an excellent matchup against Slade Cecconi ($5,600), a righty with a 3.48 ERA but xFIP and xERA numbers in the upper fives.
Given Texas’ numbers against right-handed pitching this season — their 117 wRC+ is third-best in the majors — they’re tough to ignore in a near-ideal matchup like this one.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Alec Burleson 1B/OF ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (Thomas Hatch)
The Cardinals own the highest implied team total among all road teams on Monday, checking in at 5.3 runs. While there are plenty of viable options in their lineup, Burleson represents the best value proposition.
He’s slated to hit second but is the cheapest Cardinals hitter in the top seven of their lineup on DraftKings. He’s an even better value on FanDuel, where he owns a 63% Bargain Rating. Additionally, his multi-position eligibility on both sites allows him to fit comfortably around a variety of stacks.
Ha-Seong Kim 2B/3B ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers)
The Padres are taking on their former teammate Ryan Weathers, a lefty with a 6.89 ERA on the season. While his predictive metrics are better, they aren’t much better, making him one of the slate’s more attackable pitchers. As usual, I turned to the PlateIQ tool to look for the best options:
While Tatis is an obvious choice, I was surprised to see Kim with similar numbers against left-handed pitching. Considering the $1,600 in savings, Kim is an excellent option today.
Connor Joe OF ($3,200 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Drew Rom)
Like their opposition, the Pirates are implied for more than five runs today against fill-in starter Drew Rom. Rom is a lefty making his big-league debut, and Joe increases his OPS by more than 100 points higher against lefties.
Assuming the usual growing pains as Rom transitions to the big leagues, the Pirates are a sneaky stacking option tonight. Given Joe’s team-best numbers against southpaws, I’m starting those stacks around him and building from there.
