The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) Tampa Bay Rays (-135) at San Francisco Giants
There are two arms priced in the five figures today: Glasnow and Max Scherzer. Unfortunately, neither of them has an ideal matchup, but the road is slightly easier for Glasnow, who also comes in a hair cheaper than Scherzer.
San Francisco ranks middle of the pack against right-handed pitching, with a 96 wRC+ and a below-average strikeout rate. Neither of those are numbers I’ll go out of my way to target, but both are encouraging signs for Glasnow. The strikeout rate is particularly encouraging, as Glasnow has an excellent 34.5% K rate through 12 starts. That would rank second among qualified starters if he had a few more innings of work this season.
Vegas is also somewhat pointing towards Glasnow. While he’s not implied for enough run support to have a massive moneyline price, the Giants’ 3.6 implied runs are least on the slate. As an added bonus, this game has the best Weather Rating and second-best Park Factor for pitchers.
It’s still a reasonably tight decision between Glasnow and Scherzer, with both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections slightly favoring Scherzer from a raw points standpoint. Glasnow feels like a safer pick, though, and I’m willing to eat a bit more chalk to roster him in smaller tournaments.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Miles Mikolas ($7,000) St. Louis Cardinals (-220) vs. Oakland A’s
I don’t love any of the cheaper options on today’s slate, with reasonable holes to be poked in the case for any of them. At the same time, it’s nearly impossible to roster two pitchers in the $10k range, so we need to find at least one cheaper arm to mix in.
Mikolas is the best of the bunch, largely thanks to his excellent matchup with the basement-dwelling A’s. Oakland ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties while striking out at the third-highest rate. Mikolas has just a 16.5% strikeout rate on the season, but if we’re lucky, the A’s could drag that number up just a bit.
He’s been fine from a run prevention standpoint, with an ERA in the low fours and predictive indicators in a similar range. Betting markets expect him to win in this matchup, though, as Oakland has the second-lowest implied total on the slate.
That makes Mikolas a reasonably safe choice, with perhaps the best odds of picking up the four-point win bonus. That’s enough to make him worth rostering at his price tag.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Scherzer ($11,000) Texas Rangers (-180) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The once-great Scherzer is still a well above-average MLB pitcher. However, he’s slipped firmly out of the “elite” category this season, with a 3.88 ERA and 27.4% strikeout rate. Those are excellent numbers, but probably not “worth $11,000 on DraftKings” good.
Especially not in a difficult matchup with the Angels, the sixth-ranked team in baseball against right-handed pitchers. Even filtering for just games since Mike Trout went on the injured list, they’re still a slightly above-average lineup. However, their 27.4% strikeout rate in that time frame trails only the Rockies, giving Scherzer plenty of GPP upside.
He’s also a bit of a “pay up to be contrarian” option. While the field won’t totally overlook Scherzer today, his inferior Vegas Data relative to Glasnow should tilt ownership the other way. That makes “Mad Max” an excellent pivot in larger field GPPs. He leads both projection sets in ceiling projection today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
One of the reasons it’s so difficult to fit two expensive pitchers today is that we have a game at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks travel to Colorado, where they have a whopping 7.5-run implied total as they take on the Rockies and Chris Flexen ($5,000).
We’d be picking on Flexen regardless of this game’s location, as his ERA, xERA, and FIP are all above 7.00 on the season. Only 3.2 of his 55.2 innings so far this season were at Coors — he was traded from the Mariners at the deadline — so it’s not even a case of elevated numbers due to his home ballpark.
While Arizona is a roughly league-average offense against righties, league-average hitters have led to Flexen’s outlandish ERA. They’re an extremely tough fade today, and I’d rather not take that risk myself.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Josh Palacios OF ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (Carlos Carrasco)
Projections on the Pirates are still somewhat in flux, as they’ve yet to officially name a starter and betting lines are not yet available. However, it’s pretty safe to say that Palacios will project as a solid value today, as long as he holds on to his leadoff spot in the Pirates lineup.
He’s too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel for that role, even with his rather unimpressive stats this season. That’s particularly true against Carrasco, given his 6.42 ERA for the year.
Eugenio Suarez 3B ($3,900 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
It’s a similar case for Suarez, as he’s a top-of-the-lineup hitter in a solid matchup. Suarez is a bit more expensive, but he packs a bit more upside as well. He has 16 home runs this season to go with his .233 batting average.
The Royals’ Singer is another pitcher we want exposure against, thanks to his 5.05 ERA. Suarez is a cheap way to get it, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating.
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (Max Fried)
Nobody is going to be rushing to play the Yankees today, thanks to a difficult matchup with Fried. However, there are a few hitters in pinstripes with excellent platoon splits against lefty pitching, making them an interesting off-the-radar stack:
Stanton is my favorite, thanks to his 1.046 OPS in that split. However, a Yankees mini-stack is intriguing as well.
