The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Nestor Cortes ($9,700) New York Yankees (-175) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Cortes is the slate’s most expensive pitcher, but he should be worth the price tag. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets in median points. Cortes is coming off a breakout 2022 season in which he had a sub-2.50 ERA and a solid mid-20s strikeout rate
His underlying metrics suggest a bit of regression is incoming, though. His BABIP was an unsustainable .232, while his 8.2% HR/FB rate was also well below the league average. Still, even if those things regress closer to the mean, he’s an above-average MLB pitcher. On a slate comprised primarily of back-of-the-rotation arms, he’s still a top option.
The betting markets also believe in Cortes, with the Phillies implied for just 3.6 runs. The weather in the Bronx also favors pitchers, with a weather rating of 78 (on a 1-100 scale). He should carry enough ownership that a GPP fade is justifiable, but he’s the best raw option on the board.
MLB DFS Value Picks
George Kirby ($8,000) Seattle Mariners (-150) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Kirby is projecting similarly to Cortes but at a far-friendlier price point. The Angles are implied for just 3.3 runs against him today, tied for the lowest on the slate. The 25-year-old had a very strong rookie season in 2022, with his ERA and most leading indicators all in the 3.3 range, despite a somewhat high .330 BABIP against him.
His youth and underlying metrics point to better things to come, at least in terms of preventing runs and hits. Kirby doesn’t have a massive DFS ceiling, though, thanks to his inability to miss bats. His swinging strike percentage was in the single digits last season, with a 24.5% strikeout rate. That’s a solid K rate, but expect some negative regression in that department unless he develops a true swing and miss pitch.
Ultimately, Kirby is an outstanding cash game option but is slightly lacking for GPPs. Still, we may not see massive scores from any pitcher on today’s slate, so finishing in the 20-point range might do the job at his salary.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown ($7,400) Houston Astros (-240) vs. Detroit Tigers
Brown could be the most popular pitcher on the main slate, but he’s still an outstanding GPP play. He threw just 20 innings last season but had excellent numbers and was considered a top pitching prospect. He was primarily used out of the bullpen in 2022 but started two games — including one against these Tigers — and topped 20 DraftKings points in both contests.
Crucially, he was also able to last six innings in each of those starts, so we should be reasonably confident that the sometimes-reliever can at least last long enough to be eligible for the win. That’s important, given that the Astros have the best moneyline odds by a wide margin.
The Tigers are a team worth picking on almost regardless of pitcher, with a lineup comprised of “Quadruple-A” type hitters. They’ve scored just three total runs through the first three games of their season, with a 29.7% strikeout rate. They’re implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs today.
The combination of underlying talent and matchup for Brown is second to none, making him a steal at just $7,400.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston’s 5.1 implied runs rank second on the slate, trailing only the Dodgers at 5.2. Their first five hitters are considerably cheaper than their Dodgers counterparts, though, saving nearly $4,000 in DraftKings salary.
They have a solid pitching matchup against Johan Oviedo ($6,800), who was a career ERA of 4.34 and subpar underlying metrics across three seasons. Oviedo’s career xFIP is 4.90, and he’s been lucky in both BABIP and HR/FB ratio throughout his career, especially last season.
Boston’s new-look lineup is also off to a hot start, averaging a ridiculous nine runs per game through the first series of the season. While that’s obviously unsustainable, it’s a good sign that their offseason moves have paid dividends for their offense.
With reasonable ownership projections thanks to the Dodgers and Astros, they’re a strong choice for GPPs and cash games alike.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($3,700 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams
The Rays have the top implied total of any road team on Monday’s slate. That’s important since visiting teams get a guaranteed ninth inning of at bats, whereas home teams don’t. That makes all of their hitters attractive, with Lowe standing out.
He’s a career .250 hitter, coming off a down year in which he struggled with injuries. He’s also a strong regression candidate, with a .263 BABIP last season that’s very low for a player with above-average speed. While he’s not a burner on the base paths, he should settle in closer to his career BABIP of around .300.
He also has solid power, with 39 home runs in his last fully healthy season. If he can get back anywhere near those numbers, he’ll be priced a lot higher in a month or two.
Oneil Cruz SS ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford)
Kutter Crawford had a rough rookie season on the mound, with an ERA north of five and underlying stats only slightly better. Boston is hoping he’ll be better this season, but already at 27 years old, he may just not be that good.
Enter Cruz and the Pirates, who get to put that theory to the test tonight. Cruz flashed his otherworldly potential at times last season, with 17 home runs and ten steals in roughly half a season of work. He was the number two overall prospect in baseball heading into 2022 and will be looking to build on his solid rookie season.
He should also be a major beneficiary of MLB’s new rules against the shift, as well as the bigger bases. He only saw 18 plate appearances last season against non-shifted defenses but had a .423 wOBA compared to his .317 mark against shifts. He also has the speed to swipe a few extra bags this season.
Cruz is expensive, but he has a massive ceiling on Monday’s slate. He deserves consideration in all contest types, and he also stands out in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Kyle Lewis OF ($2,300 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (Ryan Weathers)
On the budget side of things, Kyle Lewis of the D’Backs stands out. He’s near the minimum salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel and projecting as one of the best points-per-dollar options in both projection sets. Arizona is implied for a mediocre 3.8 runs, but they have a solid pitching matchup against Ryan Weathers, who has a career ERA of 5.49 in limited action over the past two seasons.
With Lewis penciled in for lead-off duties, he’s a screaming value on DraftKings. The 2020 AL rookie of the year hasn’t lived up to expectations since then, but he has the raw tools for solid production if he can stay healthy.
