The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Max Scherzer ($10,400) New York Mets (-140) vs. San Diego Padres
Scherzer is off to a bit of a slow start this season, averaging just 10 DraftKings points per game, but he’s still Max Scherzer. It’s too early to be alarmed, and his secondary metrics are still fairly strong. His HR/FB ratio has ballooned over 20%, which is more than double his career rate.
He’s still missing bats at the same level, with a 13.4% swinging strike rate that’s virtually identical to his career average. Those factors combine to make a compelling case that he’s been unlucky to start 2023, not that he’s lost a step. Both sets of projections are on that side of the fence as well. He’s the leader in THE BAT’s median projections and just half a point off in the FantasyLabs set.
While it’s a tougher matchup against the Padres, Vegas still thinks Scherzer and the Mets are the sharp side. The Padres implied total of just 3.6 runs is tied for the lowest on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Bryce Elder ($6,600) Atlanta Braves (-190) vs. Cincinnati Reds
After a solid rookie season, Elder had a strong 2023 debut. He threw six scoreless innings the last time he was on the mound, striking out six while allowing just two hits to the Cardinals. He’s unlikely to continue to strike out a batter per inning moving forward, but underlying metrics support his run prevention.
That might be enough on Monday’s slate, with a Coors Field game and the Angles against Patrick Corbin leading to many viable expensive hitters. Elder is still very cheap on DraftKings, somehow getting a price reduction despite his excellent first start.
That’s unlikely to continue, and I’d expect him to be a high $7,000 pitcher on average this season. This might be the last chance to get him near his current price. That’s particularly true if his projected ownership is accurate: he’s expected to be one of the slate’s more popular pitchers. That makes him a better play for cash games, but he’s also viable for GPPs.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Julio Urias ($9,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-147) at San Francisco Giants
Uris could get lost in the shuffle today, with pitchers like Scherzer and Luis Castillo ($9,600) projecting better at similar price points. Urias has the lowest ownership projection of the three in THE BAT, making him worth considering in GPPs.
Urias is still just 26 years old despite this being the eighth(!) season he’s appeared in, with solid numbers over the past half-decade. He’s consistently struck out roughly one hitter per inning, with a swinging strike rate to support that level moving forward. He’s allowed only two runs through 12 innings this season, despite the highest BABIP since his rookie season. Urias is good, and he may be getting better.
The most significant ceiling case for Urias is that he might have a longer leash in this, his third start of the season. He was pulled after six scoreless innings and 87 pitches in his last start, and he only threw 79 in his debut. If the Dodgers are willing to let him approach 100 or so, he could easily see a seventh inning this time.
The Giants are tied with the Padres for the lowest implied total on the slate, making Urias a value compared to Scherzer. Coupled with his reduced ownership, that makes him a strong GPP option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals have one of the best lineups in baseball, but that’s not the only reason to roster them today. They’re playing against the Rockies at Coors Field, the best hitting environment in baseball. At 6.4 runs, their implied team total leads the slate, despite facing Colorado’s “ace” German Marquez.
Marquez is solid, but he’s not a pitcher we’d necessarily avoid, even under the best circumstances. He has decent strikeout numbers but doesn’t miss enough bats to make up for the thin Rocky Mountain air. The Cardinals are also one of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out, so they should be plenty of balls in play in this spot. Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is particularly bearish on Marquez’s strikeout prospects:
Of course, many of the Cardinals at bats will be against the Rockies’ bullpen arms anyway.
The presence of the far-too-cheap Burleson also makes this stack reasonable from a salary standpoint, another reason to consider the Cardinals today. For larger field tournaments, consider some of the Cardinals’ bottom-of-the-order bats. If this one gets out of hand, they’re less likely to get pulled early and should come in at lower ownership.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kris Bryant OF ($5,400 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Saint Louis Cardinals (Steven Matz)
While the visiting Cardinals are the headliners, don’t forget about the Rockies hitters. Matz is arguably the worse pitcher of the two starters today, with a higher flyball rate and lower strikeout numbers than Marquez. He’s also a southpaw, which is a boost to Bryant.
Bryant has been noticeably better against lefties in his career, with an OPS bump of .120 compared to his splits against right-handed pitching. Between his platoon splits and the location of this game, he could easily be a few hundred more expensive on both sites and still be worth rostering.
Ketel Marte 2B ($4,300 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Wade Miley)
Marte stands out on FanDuel, where he holds a 92% Bargain Rating while being one of the highest projected players at his position. He’s expected to hit leadoff for the Diamondbacks, who have a healthy 4.7-run implied total as they host the Brewers.
He’s another hitter on the positive side of his platoon splits, with a career .301 batting average against lefties like Miley. While he’s projecting well enough to justify his DraftKings salary, he’s entirely too cheap on FanDuel and is a borderline must-play for cash games.
Anthony Rendon 3B ($3,900 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Over the past few seasons, the only thing more enticing for hitters than games at Coors Field are games against Corbin. He had a 5.82 ERA in 2021, and it’s only worsened in each subsequent season. He’s already allowed 10 runs (eight earned) through just nine innings of work this year.
All of the Angels are in play, but Rendon is my favorite from a price-considered standpoint. He’s more than -$1,000 cheaper than Nolan Areando, despite projecting within two points of him on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He fits more easily around Cardinals or Rockies stacks than Mike Trout ($6,100 DraftKings) or Shoehei Ohtani ($6,200) and also does his best work against left-handed pitching.
