The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will offer a 15-game, all-day slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, along with a three-game (FanDuel) and five-game (DraftKings) early slates beginning at the same time.
Their nine-game main slates will also start at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,600, WSH vs. STL
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,900, NYM vs. CIN
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,100, CLE @ MIA
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $10,000, LAD @ SF
Scherzer has the most difficult matchup of this group. The Cardinals projected lineup carries a middling 23.2% strikeout rate and .325 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against righties over the past year, but they also rank third against right-handed pitching in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season (FanGraphs).
Scherzer has hit value in just two starts this year, and he’s surrendered a fair amount of hard contact over his past two times on the mound, allowing opposing hitters to average a 91-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Still, his upside is undeniable for a guy who pitches deep into games and boasts a 34% strikeout rate this season. However, on a slate with many strong pitching options, he may not be the lock he typically is.
deGrom got wrecked in his first start back from his elbow injury, allowing five earned runs through four innings, although he did manage to rack up seven strikeouts in his four-inning, 89-pitch outing. It’s hard to tell whether his elbow is actually bothering him, but he continues to claim that it’s his mechanics and not his elbow.
Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom
The Reds aren’t an offense to fear as they rank 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, but they also don’t present a ton of upside for deGrom with their middling 23.1% strikeout rate. However, deGrom has at least been solid in the strikeout category this season, sporting a 37.7% strikeout rate. This could be a bounce-back spot for deGrom with his 8.5 K Prediction against a Reds team implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs.
Kluber has been awful this season, pitching to a 4.85 xFIP and averaging a -10.74 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 17% Consistency Rating. His strikeout rate is down almost 3% from last year and his walk rate is up 6.2% — both marks are worse than his career average as well. A matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 25.8% strikeout rate and .274 wOBA could be just what Kluber needs to get back on track.
Ryu has been great so far, sporting a 2.22 xFIP, 30.8% strikeout rate and a K-BB% of 29% thanks to his absurd 1.9% walk rate. He gets an exploitable matchup against a projected Giants lineup with a 24.9% strikeout rate and weak .281 wOBA, along with ranking 29th in wRC+ against lefties this season. His 7.1 K Prediction isn’t as favorable as some of the other top-priced options, but he’ll be in a good environment with a Park Factor of 93 against a Giants team implied for only 3.2 runs.
However, at his price tag, he’s a better secondary option than someone I’d build around for tournaments or cash games.
Values
Aaron Nola is more of a value on FanDuel, where he owns a 71% Bargain Rating. He’s priced as the sixth-most expensive pitcher on that particular site, but he narrowly leads our median projections, and he leads the main slate with his +14.55 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s in an extremely favorable matchup against a projected Tigers team with a 29.2% strikeout rate and .269 wOBA, along with ranking 24th in wRC+. Moreover, the Phillies check in as the largest favorite on the day, boasting a -213 moneyline.
Fastballs
FanDuel’s three-game early slate looks abysmal from a pitching perspective. The best options are likely Jake Junis or James Tallion, who lead our median projections. Neither are in particularly favorable spots, but that can be said for that whole slate on FanDuel.
Carlos Rodon: The early slate is void of many attractive pitching options, but the Orioles are one of two teams implied for under 4.0 runs. Rodon struggled in his last outing, but he’s been relatively consistent this season. His 6.1 K Prediction against the Orioles is one of the better spots on the early slate of games. Rodon is only available on DraftKings’ early slate.
Caleb Smith: He’s an intriguing tournament play who is pitching opposite Kluber. He’s been great this season, pitching to a 3.02 xFIP with a 33.9% strikeout rate. Over his past five starts, Smith is averaging a 14.32 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 100% Consistency Rating, but his salary is at a season-high on both sites for today’s start.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 1. Adam Frazier (L)
- 2. Starling Marte (R)
- 3. Gregory Polanco (L)
- 4. Josh Bell (S)
Total salary: $17,500
The Pirates own an exceptional 5.7 implied run total against the righty Shelby Miller. He’s been atrocious this season, pitching to a 7.75 xFIP. Miller has also given up a ton of hard contact over his past two starts, allowing hitters to average a 234-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate.
Miller’s poor batted-ball data could bode well for Bell, who is sporting a 226-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate. He’ll also be on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, hitting righties to the tune of a .377 wOBA and .202 ISO over the past 12 months.
One of the top stacks in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel’s main slate belongs to the Houston Astros.
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Michael Brantley (L)
Total salary: $16,400
The Astros’ Team Value Rating of 72 is the third-best mark on FanDuel’s main slate against the lefty Martin Perez.
Springer possesses a solid .360 wOBA and .188 ISO against lefties over the past year, but he’s also been smashing the baseball over the past two weeks, averaging a 242-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. All of which exceed his 12-month averages. His average distance is a whopping 33 feet further than his year-long marks.
Bregman is in the main boat, flaunting a .419 wOBA and .277 ISO, along with a +27-foot distance differential and a hard-hit rate differential of 12 percentage points.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: George Springer
Other Batters
Franmil Reyes is the top main-slate hitter in the Bales and Recent Batted Ball Model. He could be an intriguing option for salary relief on FanDuel where he carries an 83% Bargain Rating and costs just $2,400. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits, posting a .381 wOBA and .194 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Additionally, he’s in excellent batted-ball form, averaging a 250-foot distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 68% hard-hit rate. He doesn’t have the fantasy points to show for his excellent form, resulting in a massive +67 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), suggesting he could be due for some positive regression.
If you’re trying to roster some of the top-priced pitchers, Travis Shaw could be in play. He checks in with a slate-best Projected Plus/MInus and Pts/Sal in our models at the time of writing. Shaw owns a solid .359 wOBA and .264 ISO against righties over the past year. He’s another batter who hasn’t done much this season, but he possesses a +39 RBBL.
On a site like DraftKings where you need to roster a catcher, Yasmani Grandal stands out with his slate-high median, ceiling and floor projection, not to mention Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal. Grandal has a .339 wOBA and .217 ISO against righties over the past 12 months and Antonio Senzatela has allowed a decent amount of hard contact over his past two starts, evidenced by his 93-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
