The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features six games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET to kick-start a weekend of baseball action. Despite the smaller slate, there are plenty of spots to take advantage.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,300) Houston Astros (-261) vs. Texas Rangers
Future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander jumps to the top of the list as one of the highest-rated pitchers in our Tournament Model. Verlander has been dominant coming off a missed season because of Tommy John Surgery, posting a 5-1 record in seven starts, with a 1.38 ERA, 25% K rate and 0.68 WHIP. Projected for 6.68 strikeouts, Verlander faces a Rangers projected lineup with a 0.244 strikeout-per-at-bat average and has a slate-low 3-implied run total.
Per the Trends tool, when Verlander is a home favorite of -261 or greater, he has averaged 28.05 actual DraftKings points and a +6.58. Despite being the highest-priced pitcher, Verlander sits firmly in the conversation at SP1.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,500) Milwaukee Brewers (-237) vs. Washington Nationals
Milwaukee Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff continues to prove his dominance as one of the top arms in the National League. Making seven starts this season, Woodruff has a 4-2 record with a 28% K rate and a 1.37 WHIP. Don’t let his 5.35 ERA create cause for alarm, Woodruff still remains in the conversation at SP1.
Saturday’s matchup should prove to be a challenge, however, facing a Washington Nationals projected lineup with a 0.231 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the lowest on the slate. With a 3.1-implied total Woodruff also has win-bonus upside and is tagged for eight Pro Trends, which is the highest on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Patrick Corbin ($4,900) Washington Nationals (+190) at Milwaukee Brewers
A once-shining star in the Washington Nationals pitching rotation, Patrick Corbin projects as a top value on the slate, in a difficult matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Corbin’s struggles have continued from last year, with the Nationals pitcher posting an 0-6 record with a 6.28 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and a 19.8% K rate.
One benefit to Saturday’s matchup is the Brewers’ higher-than-average strikeout-per-at-bat-average, which is 0.272, and one of the highest on the slate. If Corbin can make a loaded Brewers lineup miss bats, he could be a fantasy viable option, projected for 5.9 strikeouts and low $4,900 price tag
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Frankie Montas ($9,800) Oakland Athletics (+120) at Los Angeles Angels
With Justin Verlander and Brandon Woodruff likely being popular options at SP1, Oakland Athletics arm Frankie Montas might be an overlooked option to produce a slate-breaking score. Montas is projected for 7.1 strikeouts, which is the highest of the slate and faces a Los Angeles Angels projected lineup with a 0.290 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is also the highest on the slate.
Wedged between Woodruff and Verlander in terms of price, Montas might not be one of the more comfortable options, posting a 2-4 record with a 3.67 ERA, but has a respectable 27% K rate and 1.02 WHIP, which might be of benefit Saturday night, in what looks like an ideal matchup.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Ji-Man Choi (4) ($3,800)
- Yandy Diaz (1) ($4,900)
- Wander Franco (2) ($5,200)
- Harold Ramirez (3) ($3,200)
- Randy Arozarena (5) ($4,600)
The Rays are implied for 4.9-runs, which is one of the highest on the slate and look to have an ideal matchup, facing rookie arm Kyle Brandish of the Baltimore Orioles, who in four starts has a 1-2 record with a 5.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 25.3% K rate. The Rays look to be a more affordable option, with a five-man stack costing $21,700, also benefitting from a hitter-friendly venue of Camden Yards
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and the Rays’ top five are loaded with power, but proceed with caution, the Rays projected lineup posting a 0.272 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is among the highest on the slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Mets:
It is a Coors’ Field slate, and the Mets, who play a double-header Saturday after a snowy postponement Friday and have a 5.3-implied run total, which is the highest on the slate. Despite the ideal matchup, facing Austin Gomber, who in seven starts has a 2-3 record with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, look to be affordable at $22,600 on DraftKings–certainly a discount for a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5, 5-man stack, loaded with power.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Cedric Mullins OF ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Jeffrey Springs)
Removing the Mets and Rays in search of possible one-off plays, Baltimore Orioles’ outfielder Cedric Mullins jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Mullins, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .256/.318/.413 with five home runs to start the season and looks to have an ideal matchup in a bullpen game for the Rays, facing Jeffrey Springs. Camden Yards rates as one of the more hitter-friendly venues on the slate, and Mullins should be an affordable one-off play that could kickstart the Orioles offense.
Mike Trout OF ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (Frankie Montas)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit second, between Taylor Ward and Shohei Ohtani, but looks to have a difficult matchup against Oakland Athletics pitcher Frankie Montas, who has the highest projected strikeouts on the slate. But we’re talking about Mike Trout–who should remain matchup-proof slashing .317/.427/.683 with 11 home runs on the season.
Jed Lowrie 2B ($2,300 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (Michael Lorenzen)
Oakland Athletics second baseman Jed Lowrie projects as the top value on DraftKings, in what looks to be an ideal matchup against a struggling Michael Lorenzen, who in six starts has a 4-2 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 17% K rate. Look for Lowrie to be a one-off play which should open up salary relief if playing higher priced stacks. Projected to bat third, Lowrie, a switch hitter should have plenty of opportunity to generate runs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros
Photo Credit: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
