The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Fridday features a thirteen-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($9,700) New York Yankees (-231) vs. Texas Rangers
Not much needs to be said about Cole, who’s scored nearly 60 points between his last two outings. He should always be considered in any slate where he’s eligible, with today’s being no different. He and the Yankees are massive favorites at home against the Rangers, who are implied for just 2.8 runs.
It’s certainly an above-average matchup for Cole, with Texas having a relatively poor offense. Their weighted runs-created plus (wRC+) is 91 on the season. For those unfamiliar with the metric, 100 is average, so any number below that represents an offense in the bottom half of the MLB in total offensive output.
Cole trails only Scherzer in both strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. He has a much better matchup, though, and comes in $800 cheaper on DraftKings. He deserves a look in all contest types, even if he comes in at relatively high ownership. It shouldn’t be too outlandish, given all of the top-tier options on today’s slate. Cole leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for median and ceiling projection.
Editor’s note: This game has been postponed.
Max Scherzer ($10,500) New York Mets (-140) at Philadelphia Phillies
Scherzer has the best individual pitching metrics on the slate, coming in as the leader in SIERA, strikeout rate, and swinging-strike rate. However, he has a more difficult matchup in the Phillies, who feature a 107 wRC+ score — 11th in the MLB.
As frequently mentioned in this space, good pitching has the advantage over good hitting, but we’d ideally roster good pitchers against bad hitting when we can. While that does make Scherzer a solid contrarian option, he’s certainly not as safe a pick as Cole. If their salaries were flipped, it would be a much tougher decision, but Cole is the better straight-up play.
This game does carry some weather risk too, which should keep ownership down on Scherzer. The likeliest outcome is rain coming in early, though, so it’s unlikely this one starts but gets delayed. I certainly wouldn’t roster Scherzer unless I can keep an eye on things right up until lock, but if this one starts (which looks unlikely), it should play through.
Of course, we do get to roster two pitchers on DraftKings. Weather non-withstanding, lineups with both Scherzer and Cole will be less popular than their individual ownership projections would suggest, given the high cost of fitting them both. It’s an intriguing tournament option if you can find the cheap hitters to get there.
Scherzer trails only Cole in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for median and ceiling.
Editor’s note: This game has also been postponed.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Shane Bieber ($8,700), Cleveland Guardians (+125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bieber’s salary has dropped to its lowest level since opening day, despite a solid 22.95-point performance in his last outing. That makes him a strong value play today, as he trails only Cole and Scherzer in median projection in both projection systems. He’s noticeably cheaper than both options and is sure to be a popular SP2 in lineups featuring one of them.
Bieber had a somewhat rough start to the season but has seen each of his starts increase in length as the season goes on. That’s a good sign following two injury-plagued seasons. It’s not an especially difficult matchup with the Blue Jays, who rank outside the top 10 in wRC+ and are implied for just 3.6 runs.
This is another game with some weather concerns, though any rain that comes is expected to be lighter. It’s tremendous weather for pitchers if the game gets played, but it does carry some risk. That makes Bieber a scary option for cash games but boosts his appeal for tournaments. The bad-hitting weather helps his upside, and the PPD risk should limit ownership.
Bieber has plenty of upside — even as an underdog — given his strikeout rate and ability to work deep into games. He’s a solid play for both cash games and tournaments. He’s also pitching at the best pitchers park of the top options, with a 66 Park Factor.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Yu Darvish ($9,400) San Diego Padres (-129) vs. Miami Marlins
On a smaller slate, Darvish would be an obvious choice and one of the most popular options. On today’s massive 13-game slate, he could get lost in the shuffle a bit. Darvish checks all the boxes we’re looking for from a pitcher. His team is favored, with Miami implied for just 3.2 runs.
Other than a historically bad fantasy game against the Giants, Darvish has been a solid pitcher this season, with at least 16 points in all his other starts. He has strong numbers, with a 28% strikeout rate and a 3,53 SIERA. That latter mark is much lower than his 4.23 ERA, suggesting Darvish has been a bit unlucky as well. Darvish is also the only pitcher mentioned so far who has a favorable Park Factor and Weather Rating score in our models.
While Darvish doesn’t have quite the same upside as our other top options if he comes in with low ownership projections, he’s worth a look for GPPs.
Kevin Gausman ($10,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-148) at Cleveland Guardians
Gausman isn’t projecting quite as well as his opposite number, Bieber of the Guardians. However, he is favored in this one, with Cleveland implied for just three runs. Gausman has near-identical secondary metrics as Bieber, with his SIERA being exactly the same and a strikeout rate just a percentage point behind Bieber.
A combination of name recognition and higher salary means Gausman likely be the less popular option in this game, though. That makes him a solid leverage play for GPPs. He wouldn’t fit into any of my tighter builds, but he deserves some exposure if multi-entering.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (1) ($4,500)
- Michael Brantley (2) ($3,900)
- Alex Bregman (3) ($4,900)
- Yordan Alvarez (4) ($5,200)
- Yuli Gurriel (5) ($3,900)
The Astros are taking on the Tigers, who are starting a fill-in starter in rookie Beau Brieske ($5,900). Brieske has made two starts in relief of Casey Mize (elbow), posting a solid 3.6 ERA. However, his secondary metrics tell a different story. Brieske has a SIERA of 5.35, and a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 6.99. He’s been incredibly lucky, having allowed three home runs in ten innings — but just four runs total.
Look for that luck to run out against the Astros. Brieske is allowing fly balls on 60% of his balls in play and has just a 4% swinging-strike rate. Balls in the air should have no problem carrying in Houston, with temperatures in the 80s and a wind blowing out to left field.
Altuve also looks to be back at full strength, with two home runs in his last three games. This is a powerful Astros lineup facing a flyball pitcher who fails to strike anybody out. The Astros are also somewhat reasonably priced, making them a great overall choice today.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
This first-through-fifth Angels stack costs a pretty penny, with an average salary over $5,000. They could prove to be well worth the salary, though. The Angles are one of the league’s top offenses, ranking top-three in both wOBA and wRC+ as a team. They also have a juicy matchup with Joan Adon ($5,600) of the Nationals, who has an ERA over 6.5 over the last two seasons.
Washington also has a struggling bullpen so far this season, with the sixth-worst ERA in the league. The stars at the top of the Angels’ order are always worth considering, but especially when they have favorable matchups. The emergence of Ward (.526 wOBA through 18 games) and MArsh (.315) makes this lineup even more dangerous. They both have fairly unsustainable BABIP numbers, but they could stay hot for a while.
The Angels lineup also has cheaper — but still solid — options lower in the order. Jared Walsh ($3,700) and Andrew Velasquez ($2,700) both have positive Plus/Minus projections and can save salary while differentiating your lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Trevor Story 2B ($4,800 DraftKing; $3,200 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox (Vince Velasquez)
This is really a Red Sox stack section disguised as a Trevor Story writeup, as they have an extremely exploitable pitching matchup against Velasquez– who has an ERA over six dating back to the start of 2021. He also has a terribly low ground-ball rate of 31%, which is the worst on the slate.
That’s good news for right-handed power at Fenway Park, with Story being the most noteworthy example. Story is yet to hit a home run this season, despite hitting fly balls at the highest rate of his career. He’s also expected to leadoff for Boston, giving him plenty of chances to launch one over the green monster.
Velasquez also has reverse platoon splits, faring slightly worse against right-handed hitting than lefties. That makes Xander Bogaerts ($5,100) and J.D. Martinez ($4,900) solid stacking partners for Story or individual options as well. This game has some minor weather concerns, but current forecasts expect this one to play clean. Story is the top-rated option in our Tournament Model when using THE BAT’s projections.
Marcell Ozuna OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Eric Lauer)
The Braves aren’t likely to be popular bats today, as they draw a tough matchup with Milwaukee’s Lauer. Lauer has a sub-3.0 ERA dating back to last season and is one of the slate’s better pitchers. However, his SIERA is nearly a full run higher, so he’s due for some regression.
That could come today against the Braves, who have a wOBA of .340 against lefties coming into this one. All of the Braves are in play, but Ozuna stands out with a noticably strong platoon split against southpaws. He has a 70-point boost to his career OPS when facing left-handed pitching and has a slugging percentage over .500.
Trey Mancini 1B/OF ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals (Carlos Hernandez)
Hernandez is arguably the worst pitcher on the slate, with a 5.08 SIERA that’s better than only Brieske (who has only pitched 10 big league innings in his career). However, the Orioles are arguably the worst lineup on the slate, with the Reds playing an early game today.
While good pitching generally beats good hitting, bat hitting has the edge over bad pitching in most cases. Mancini is probably the best choice on the Orioles for a variety of reasons. He’s drastically underpriced on DraftKings, with a solid 69% Bargain Rating. Mancini is set to bat second and has multi-position eligibility. He’s also second on the team in batting average (among qualifiers), just behind Austin Hays ($3,100).
The Orioles provide some nice salary relief on a slate filled with expensive arms and stacks. Mancini is my first choice, but Hays and others could be utilized as well, given the strength of their matchup.
