The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,900) New York Yankees (-360) vs. Detroit Tigers
There are plenty of high-priced pitching options on today’s slate, with three arms in the five-figure salary range. However, none of them top Cole’s combination of ability and matchup. He and the Yankees have the best Vegas data on the slate, as massive favorites with Detroit implied for a paltry 2.8 runs.
Cole has looked every bit the ace New York signed him to be this season. His 2.83 SIERA is the lowest since 2019, he has a strikeout rate over 30%, and his swinging strike rate is his best mark as a Yankee. He had three bad — or bad by Cole standards — starts to open the 2022 season, but since then, he’s scored at least 22 DraftKings points in each outing and at least 25 in all but one.
The Tigers aren’t an offense that should cause that to change. They have the league’s worst wRC+ and second-worst wOBA on the season. Detroit has turned things around a bit, as they’ve won seven of their last nine contests. That’s been primarily due to excellent pitching, though; they’re still averaging just 3.5 runs in that stretch.
Cole will rightfully be the most popular arm on the slate today, but he’s still a scary fade. The other top arms have more difficult matchups and/or don’t offer enough salary relief for the risk. He leads THE BAT’s projection systems for median projection and is a close second in the FantasyLabs set.
Shane Bieber ($9,800) Cleveland Guardians (-136) at Baltimore Orioles
Bieber is the only pitcher ahead of Cole in the FantasyLabs projections while coming in noticeably cheaper. He hasn’t been as dominant as Cole this year, though. The 2020 Cy Young winner has been mortal since that dominant season. This year, he has a career-high 3.61 SIERA, with a career-low strikeout rate of 23.1%.
Neither of those are bad numbers by any stretch, but they pale in comparison to his 2.52 SIERA and 40-plus% strikeout rate in the COIVD-shortened 2020 season. Still, he certainly has the talent to post dominant numbers again. That could start tonight, as he draws a juicy matchup with the Orioles.
Baltimore is not as easy of a draw as the Tigers, though I’d argue the Tigers’ recent hot streak makes it closer than the full-season numbers appear. Depending on the metric, they are still a bottom-five or so offense in the league and are implied for just 3.7 runs.
All of which makes Bieber an intriguing pivot from Cole. If the extra $1,100 in salary helps you find scoring from your hitters, Bieber could keep it close enough to be the better play. I prefer Cole in a vacuum, but that salary could prove crucial tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Zach Eflin ($6,100) Philadelphia Phillies (TBD) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Eflin leads the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for Pts/Sal on Friday’s slate. He could be vital in freeing up the salary needed to fit more expensive bats tonight. He’s a risky play, though, as he draws a difficult matchup with the Angels.
Eflin has been very solid this year, with a 3.62 SIERA. His strikeout and swinging strike numbers are somewhat less exciting, with a mediocre 22% K rate. We aren’t rostering Eflin at $6,100 needing a monster score, so he doesn’t necessarily need to pile up the strikeouts to return value.
Expect the projections on Eflin to change significantly when the betting lines are added for this game. Also, keep an eye on our lineups page as you’re building lineups. While Eflin is listed as the probable starter in most places, MLB.com has the Phillies starter as TBD. With betting markets not putting this game up yet, we could see a change at some point. If he gets the start, he’s an attractive SP2 option.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Corbin Burnes ($10,100) Milwaukee Brewers (-151) vs. San Diego Padres
Burnes trails only Bieber and Cole in FantasyLabs median projections while coming in fourth in THE BAT. However, he’s the only pitcher on the slate with numbers comparable to Cole’s on the season. He has a 2.53 SIERA and a 31.8% strikeout rate.
The matchup should keep ownership lower on Burnes. The Padres aren’t a difficult matchup for pitchers, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. However, they’re still noticeably better than the Tigers.
However, the Padres’ implied team total of 3.0 runs is only slightly higher than Detroit’s. That says everything you need to know about Burnes, who has the best chance on the slate of supplanting Cole as the top scorer. He’s a nice GPP pivot.
Max Fried ($8,300) Atlanta Braves (-180) at Colorado Rockies
Fried is having the best year of his career, with career-best numbers in SIERA, swinging-strike rate, and strikeout percentage. He’s taking on a Rockies team that ranks bottom-five in wRC+ and wOBA on the road this year. I mention the Rockies’ road splits since Colorado’s offensive numbers are always inflated by playing at Coors Field, while their road numbers give a better feel for the actual quality of their lineup.
Of course, this game isn’t on the road for Colorado; it’s at Coors. These teams combined for 19 runs last night, and the total on this game is a massive 11.5. That should keep ownership ridiculously low on Fried, making him an interesting GPP choice. Good pitchers at Coors generally are strong plays if you’re willing to take on the risk.
Fried is well-positioned to excel at Coors. His 25% flyball rate is very low, with even top pitchers like Cole and Bieber having rates in the mid-30s. Ideally, he’d miss a few more bats, but keeping the ball on the ground is almost as good. While it would be nice if he were a bit cheaper, the likely minuscule ownership makes Fried a solid option if multi-entering tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (1) ($5,200)
- Dansby Swanson (2) ($4,600)
- Marcell Ozuna (3) ($4,300)
- Austin Riley (4) ($5,000)
- Matt Olson (5) ($4,700)
Some version of a Coors stack was going to be the pick again today. Atlanta seems like the far better choice of the two teams given their enormous 6.4-run implied total. The Braves have been a viable stacking option regardless of location recently, and they’ve been a top-five offense since Acuna returned from his more recent injury in mid-May.
Their matchup with Chad Kuhl ($5,400) of the Rockies is a great one. Unlike Fried, Kuhl’s batted ball data has him as a terrible Coors pitcher. He has a career flyball rate of 36%, which is up even higher to 39.3% in 2022. Coupled with a career strikeout rate of roughly 20%, that’s a bad combination for pitching in Colorado.
The Braves stack isn’t even exceptionally costly, so it’s hard to find a reason to fade them. Find a way to fit them in and look to get contrarian elsewhere in your lineup. Pairing them with Fried is one possibility, as there’s some slight correlation between their offensive success and Fried picking up the four-point win bonus.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by Projected Plus/Minus belongs to the New York Yankees:
We’re going with Projected Plus/Minus — a proprietary FantasyLabs metric that measures a player’s projections versus salary-based expectations — for our stack from THE BAT today. Plus/Minus is generally an excellent way to highlight players who are expected to outperform their salary. That’s important today, with expensive pitchers and a Coors Field game putting a premium on salary.
Even with Judge included, the Yankees stack comes in at under $4,000 per hitter for their matchup with the Tigers. They’re implied for over five runs as they take on the Tigers Elvin Rodriguez. Rodriguez has performed admirably in spot starts for Detroit but wasn’t expected to be in their regular rotation. His 4.20 SIERA is solid but undoubtedly exploitable by the Yankees.
Rodriguez has been far worse against left-handed hitting in a minimal sample, allowing a .324 wOBA. Yankee Stadium is also one of the best parks for lefty bats, with an 82 Park Factor. That makes Carpenter, Rizzo, and Gallo the priorities for New York, which is convenient since they’re reasonably cheap.
Like the Braves stack and Fried, we’re also getting some mild correlation between the Yankees lineup and Cole. They’re a solid full stack and make sense as a mini-stack to build around the Braves as well.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Garret Hampson 2B/OF ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves (Max Fried)
While I highlighted how Fried’s style could serve him well at Coors Field, it might be a drawback against Hampson. Hampson is a contact hitter with great speed, with scouts giving him a 70 for speed (in the ridiculous 80-point baseball scouting scale) according to FanGraphs. He also stole 17 bases last year.
Fried’s groundball-heavy profile could allow him to put that speed to good use today. Hampson is also on the right side of his platoon splits, with an OPS nearly 100 points higher against lefties. He’s very reasonably priced for a bat at Coors today, even as the projected number eight hitter. While he’s not a big power guy, he hit 11 home runs last season, and his chances of hitting one are clearly higher at home than on the road.
Vladamir Guerrero Jr. 1B ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins (Chi Chi Gonzalez)
The Blue Jays could slip under the radar today, despite an excellent 5.7-run implied total. That’s mainly due to the ease of their matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,000) of the Twins. Gonzalez has spent the season at Triple-A but will be making his 2022 big-league debut tonight.
He’s historically struggled in the majors, posting a career SIERA of 5.51. Part of that stems from playing for the Rockies, but he was equally bad in a stint with the Rangers. Guerrero leads THE BAT’s median projections among the Blue Jays while ranking fourth in salary.
Daulton Varsho C ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (JT Brubaker)
Varsho should be another player with minimal ownership, as many players try to save salary with their catcher selection. He’s in an excellent spot, though, projecting as the leadoff hitter at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh starter JT Brubaker ($7,600) has a moderate 4.16 SIERA on the season, but that’s not the biggest selling point tonight.
Brubaker has a double-digit walk rate, and Varsho draws walks at a fairly high clip. That should allow him to get on base and use his solid speed to his advantage. He has three steals on the season, but his chances go up with a pitcher like Brubaker on the mound.
