The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,300) Philadelphia Phillies (-133) at San Diego Padres
There are three pitchers priced in the five-figure range today. Nola is the only one to have a median projection of at least 20 points in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems. The other two arms — who we’ll get to shortly — have difficult matchups, while Nola’s is less threatening.
He’s taking on the Padres in San Diego. They’re a roughly league-average offense, and Petco Park is one of the better parks for pitchers on the slate. San Diego’s 3.4 run total is one of the slate’s lowest marks.
Of course, that’s mostly due to how good Nola has been. He has a 2.79 SIERA on the season and a strikeout rate over 28% through 13 starts. He’s also been on a heater lately, with at least 31 points in three of his last four starts and 20 points in the other.
Nola is probably the safest pick of the top arms on Friday’s slate, and it’s hard to say he doesn’t have upside when he’s topped 30 points so many times.
I’m not sure I’ll want to pay up for pitching today, but if I do, it will be Nola.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jeffrey Springs ($8,500) Tampa Bay Rays (-207) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Springs spent the first part of the season as a reliever and opener for the Rays. He’s still averaging just over three innings per appearance this season, but since the middle of May, he’s gone at least five in all but one start. His price on DraftKings still (somewhat) reflects his past role, though, as it’s steadily crept up in each appearance.
In an average matchup, his $8,500 salary would be high enough that Springs would no longer be a great value. He doesn’t have an average matchup on Friday, though. Outside of Detroit and Oakland, Pittsburgh is the league’s worst offense and also strikes out at the third-highest rate.
Springs is the biggest favorite on the slate, and Pittsburgh has the smallest implied run total. That’s a solid combination at his price point. While his numbers aren’t elite — 3.26 SIERA, 26.8% strikeout rate — they’re more than good enough in this matchup.
He leads THE BAT’s Pts/Sal projections and is tied for third in the FantasyLabs system.
Alex Cobb ($8,300) San Francisco Giants (-205) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cobb profiles similarly to Springs, with his salary suppressed by his shorter outings but excellent numbers overall. He has a SIERA below three and a 27.2% strikeout rate on the season. Like Springs, he also has an excellent matchup with the Reds. They rank bottom-five in the majors in wRC+.
Cobb missed most of June with an injury and returned last Sunday with just a four-inning outing. I’m willing to give him a pass on his first game back, though, and expect him to last for the five or six innings he’d thrown in his previous handful of starts.
That would be long enough for a good score against Cincinnati, making him an interesting lower-priced option today.
While the Reds offense has been much improved in the last week or two, they’re still implied for just 3.4 runs today. That’s the lowest total on the slate besides Pittsburgh.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,600) Houston Astros (+105) at New York Yankees
Verlander is the slate’s most expensive pitcher, despite being a slight underdog on Friday. He’s taking on the best offense in the majors in the Yankees.
I’m normally a believer that good pitching trumps good hitting, but it’s hard to justify Verlander at his salary. He had a rough outing his last time up, allowing four runs in 3.2 innings while only striking out one. On the other hand, his previous three starts were excellent, including a dozen strikeouts against the Mariners — another top-10 offense.
Verlander is currently projecting for single-digit ownership, which is why he’s worth considering. He’s scored at least 29.9 DraftKings points in five of his 13 outings this year, including against some of the league’s better offenses. He’s not worth his salary on paper.
But we don’t get many opportunities to roster him at minimal ownership, making him an interesting option today.
Luis Severino ($10,200) New York Yankees (-125) vs. Houston Astros
Severino is in a similar situation to Verlander, though he’s the slight favorite. He’s taking on the Astros, who are tied for second in wRC+ on the season, trailing only Severino’s Yankees. Severino has slightly better numbers this year too. He has a lower SIERA and higher strikeout and swinging-strike rate.
He hasn’t pitched as deep into games as JV, though, averaging five and a half innings per start compared to Verlander’s 6.1. I’d say it’s roughly a wash between his better rate stats but shorter starts between him and Verlander, so the better play comes down to ownership.
Presently, FantasyLabs has Severino as the more popular option on Friday’s slate. It’s a situation worth monitoring, though.
Both pitchers have clear upside, making whoever is expected to be less popular the better play.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- Daulton Varsho (1) ($4,600)
- Alek Thomas (2) ($2,900)
- Josh Rojas (3) ($4,000)
- Christian Walker (4) ($3,900)
- David Peralta (5) ($3,400)
The Diamondbacks are absurdly cheap for a team with a 4.9-run total today, with their top five hitters coming in under $19,000. They’ll be a strong option in lineups with two expensive pitchers, as the salary relief allows a ton of flexibility elsewhere.
They have a matchup with the Tigers Rony Garcia ($5,600). Garcia has a 4.97 ERA on the season and came into the season expected to work from the bullpen. A string of injuries to Tigers starters has forced him into starting duty, where he’s been less effective than he had been from the bullpen.
It’s worth noting that his underlying numbers are much better, with a 3.26 SIERA. He’s not a pitcher to be avoided by any stretch, but not as bad as his ERA would indicate either. The real problem is the Tigers have asked him to eat innings beyond his capabilities due to their taxed pitching staff, leading to some crooked numbers against him.
Unfortunately, Varsho is no longer catcher-eligible on DraftKings, slightly lowering this stacks appeal. It’s still a very strong option when salary is tight, though, with Varsho and Thomas having the highest ratings of any outfielders in our Tournament Model.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Given the state of the available pitching today, paying $27,000 for the Dodgers stack will likely not be an extremely popular option. That makes them an intriguing tournament stack — if you can find the salary to get there.
The Dodgers are taking on Ian Anderson ($8,100) in Atlanta, following a three-game series where they scored 26 total runs. They have the highest implied total of any road team today and excellent hitting weather — with a Weather Rating of 70.
Anderson has also struggled this year, with a 4.56 SIERA on the season. His fly-ball rate is the highest of his career, and he’s been somewhat lucky with an 11.9% HR/FB ratio. His number last year was over 15%, though it’s down league-wide this season.
It’s really about the strength of the Dodgers lineup, though. Outside of the Yankees (who have a very tough matchup today), they have the best numbers in the league and are in play on a nightly basis. The appeal is even higher at low ownership like we’re getting today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Riley Greene OF ($2,200 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks (Merril Kelly)
Greene’s salary still being near the DraftKings minimum is a shock. He’s been on base 11 times in his five-game big league career, with a ridiculous .524 OBP. While that won’t continue forever, today’s matchup with Kelly isn’t likely to end his streak.
Kelly has a 4.34 SIERA on the season and a fairly high walk rate of 8.9%. Given Greene’s penchant for drawing free passes, he should spend some time on the basepaths tonight. We haven’t seen any extra-base power from Greene yet, but that’s bound to change eventually. He hit 24 home runs in 124 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season.
His salary is more appropriate on FanDuel, but he’s a steal on DraftKings, where he ranks second among outfielders in Pts/Sal in the FantasyLabs projections.
Andrew Vaughn 1B/OF ($3,900 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (Austin Voth)
Vaughn is another young player whose salary is yet to rise to the level of his production. He has an OPS of .875 on the season, with seven homers so far. Like Greene, there’s some concern for regression — his .367 BABIP is unsustainable for a player with his (lack of) speed. However, he also has a solid matchup, so regression can wait.
Voth is serving as the opener for Baltimore and hasn’t thrown more than 2.2 innings in an appearance this year. He has an 8.39 ERA on the season, though — he hasn’t been effective even in brief outings. While Baltimore has a surprisingly solid bullpen, asking relievers to work 6+ innings usually is a bad recipe.
Besides Vaughn, his teammate Gavin Sheets ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) is also in play on DraftKings. Sheets is priced at the minimum and projects as the No. 6 hitter for the Sox. He leads all hitters in the FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal.
Mike Trout ($5,800 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners (Chris Flexen)
Trout and Shohei Ohtani ($6,000 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel) have the two highest median projections in THE BAT today, as they take on Chris Flexen ($6,200) of the Mariners. Flexen has a 4.91 SIERA on the season and is one of the more attackable arms on the slate.
Trout being cheaper than Ohtani on DraftKings doesn’t make a ton of sense. He’s been the better hitter this year, with a 1.026 OPS compared to Ohtani’s .822. It’s a bit more interesting on FanDuel, where their salaries are identical, but I still prefer Trout. He’s always in play, but even more so with the soft pitching matchup, he has on Friday.
