The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Robbie Ray ($8,700) Seattle Mariners (-130) vs. Los Angeles Angels
There are a ton of strong pitching options (at reasonable prices) on today’s slate, with Ray leading the charge from a projection standpoint. He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s ceiling projections while coming in second for median in the FantasyLabs set.
His 7.99 K Prediction is the clear leader on the slate, and for a good reason. The Angels have struck out at the highest rate in the majors at 25.5% on the season. It’s not all based on the matchup, either. While Ray’s strikeout rate is down a bit this year to 25.1%, his swinging-strike rate is over 15%. He should be striking out north of 30% of his opponents, as he did last year with a similar swinging-strike rate.
Beyond the strikeouts, the struggling Angels are implied for just 3.6 runs, one of the slate’s lowest totals. Rostering the favorite in a game that Vegas is giving a 7.5 over/under is generally a good move. With all of the viable options, ownership shouldn’t condense too much on any one pitcher, so Ray is a strong GPP option.
Frankie Montas ($8,300) Oakland A’s (TBD) vs. Kansas City Royals
There’s currently no betting line listed for the A’s game against Kansas City, so projections could shift a bit once the line comes up. With that said, expect Montas to still have excellent numbers. He’s ahead of Ray in median projection in the FantasyLabs system while coming in third in THE BAT.
Ray is another good pitcher with a good matchup, as the Royals rank 24th in wRC+ in the majors. His upside is probably slightly capped relative to Ray, with the Royals not striking out nearly as often. He’s the safer pick, though, as the Angels lineup has more potential to hang a big number on Ray than the Royals do on Montas.
He’s also not quite the pitcher Ray is, with a 3.16 SIERA and 26% strikeout rate. While the latter is better than Ray’s mark, he misses bats on 2% less of his pitches, which tends to be fairly predictive of strikeout rate moving forward. We get to roster two pitchers on DraftKings, though, and both are affordable enough to be paired together.
MLB DFS Value Pick.
Jon Gray ($6,900) Texas Rangers (+105) at Detroit Tigers
Not having half of his games at Coors Field for the first time in his career has done wonders for Gray, who has a SIERA below four for the first time since 2018. He also has a career-high 26% strikeout rate coming into this one and has been way better than his 4.85 ERA would indicate.
He’s still a tier below many of the other solid options on today’s slate, but that’s where the matchup comes in. He’s taking on a Tigers offense that is arguably the league’s worst since 1947, which adds some appeal to any pitcher. While Detroit is implied for 4.3 runs, that seems awfully generous considering their offensive issues.
We likely don’t need to save the $1,400 from Montas by rostering Gray, but if the salary is impactful elsewhere, he makes for an interesting pivot. He ranks fourth in Pts/Sal projections in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT systems, with Montas and Ray leading the way in both.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Framber Valdez ($8,500) Houston Astros (-166) vs. Chicago White Sox
The better GPP option between Valdez Ray and Montas depends on ownership, with projections not currently up at the time of writing. My intuition is that Valdez comes in the least popular of the three. His numbers aren’t quite as strong, with a 19.9% strikeout rate, and the White Sox are closer to an average offense than a bad one.
Those are all fairly nit-picky, though, and Valdez would be a popular play on a weaker slate for pitching. This comes down to game theory, where his odds of besting the scores of the aforementioned pitchers could end up being far smaller than the gaps in their ownership.
Valdez has strong Vegas data, too, with a 3.6-run implied total against him. That’s identical to Ray’s make, with Valdez as the bigger favorite. I’ll have Valdez on my radar when ownership projections are posted.
Tarik Skubal ($9,000) Detroit Tigers (-125) vs. Texas Rangers
The fact that the Tigers are favored despite a historically bad offense speaks volumes about Skubal’s ability. He’s been lights out this season, with a 2.95 SIERA and 27.6% strikeout rate. He’s tied for second in WAR among pitchers this season, trailing only Kevin Gausman of Toronto.
The matchup with Texas is also a favorable one, with the Rangers one of just seven teams with a wOBA on the season below .300. This game is in Detroit too, which features a much more favorable park for pitchers than the Rangers have played their home games in.
The biggest appeal to Skubal is his price, which is back down to tenable levels after creeping up north of $10,000 earlier in the month. That’s thanks to a rough outing his last time out, allowing four runs in as many innings to the Blue Jays.
(It’s also due to Skubal coming in with minimal ownership in a prior outing since Tigers beat reporters said he would have his start pushed back, and DraftKings listed him as out, but he ended up starting. DraftKings salaries are heavily dependent on the prior game’s ownership.)
My guess is he’ll go overlooked by most of the field today, with slightly better options coming in a bit cheaper. That makes him an ideal GPP play, with as much upside as anybody. He ranks third in our K Prediction for Friday’s games.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Jurickson Profar (1) ($4,300)
- Jake Croneworth (2) ($5,600)
- Manny Machado (3) ($6,100)
- Luke Voit (4) ($3,800)
- Austin Nola (6) ($3,400)
The Padres are an obvious choice today, thanks to a massive 6.8-run implied total. That total, of course, is due to their game being played in Colorado, where they’ll take on Rockies starter Kyle Freeland ($5,700). While Freeland has been fine this year — home ballpark considered — his 4.61 SIERA is far from a shy away spot.
The bigger issue with Freeland is his inability to pick up punchouts, with just a 16.4% strikeout rate. His 42.6% ground ball rate is in line with the league average, but those numbers are based on balls in play. He’s allowing too many of those, so more total balls in the air than an average pitcher.
That’s problematic against a strong Padres offense. I’d actually be slightly surprised if the Padres start the three lefties our lineups page currently projects against the southpaw Hendricks. So keep an eye on the page after lineups lock, as the final rollout could end up somewhat different than what’s currently listed.
This stack in its present form is far too cheap for the highest total offense on the board though. With reasonably priced pitchers, the $23,200 this stack runs should be more than accessible.
That means it will be chalky, but I’m willing to eat it here and get unique in other spots.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling (outside of the Padres) belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies were THE BAT’s favorite stack yesterday, and they didn’t disappoint. Philadelphia scored 10 runs against the Nationals, including three homers. They’re expected to have another big day at the plate, with a six-run implied total on Friday night.
Standing in their way is Nationals pitcher Paolo Espino ($4,000) who has just one start on the season. This game is the second in a doubleheader, so it looks like it will be mostly a bullpen game for the Nationals. It could get very ugly for them, with relievers having to work 5.2 innings yesterday and the early game today placing a further strain.
While it feels a bit like chasing to go back to the Phillies, they’re in a perfect spot against a depleted Nationals pitching staff. They’re also fairly reasonably priced, so a Phillies/Padres double stack isn’t out of reach.
Be sure to keep an eye on the lineups page, though. Regular lineups tend to get thrown off a bit by double headers, so it could look slightly different than what we’re currently projecting, especially at catcher. Realmuto is unlikely to be behind the plate for both games, though he could DH one or both.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Connor Joe 1B/OF ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (MacKenzie Gore)
The Rockies offense is also in play today with the game at Coors, with the home team implied for a strong 5.5 runs. Joe is the highest-rated option in our models though. He’s the leadoff hitter, and his multi-position eligibility helps you fit him in around your chosen stack.
He’s also on the right side of his platoon splits against the left-handed Gore, with a career OPS of .812 against southpaws. The Rockies are all a bit overpriced on DraftKings, but Joe, in particular, is a tremendous value on FanDuel.
He has a 98% Bargain Rating there.
On DraftKings, 2B Brendan Rodgers ($4,200 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) is my favorite Rocky. He has an even better OPS of .854 against lefties and is $1,000 cheaper while expected to bat third.
Byron Buxton OF ($5,500 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks (Madison Bumgarner)
Buxton had a rough series against the Mariners, going 2-12 with a home run in three games. However, he seems to have broken free from his slump overall, with six home runs in the past nine games. Today’s a great spot for him against the washed Bumgarner, who has a 4.77 SIERA and 16.4% strikeout rate on the year.
Buxton doesn’t have extreme platoon splits, but he also hits lefties better than righties. His career average is about 10 points higher against southpaws. His strikeout rate is higher than we’d like for a player with his speed, but that’s not much of a concern against Bumgarner at this point. The Twins could be a sneaky stack today in an excellent matchup.
Lane Thomas OF ($3,200 DraftKings; NA FanDuel) Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Bailey Falter)
Thomas and the Nationals are also in a strong spot today, with a 4.7 run total. The Phillies are also using a reliever in a spot start, with Falter having thrown only 15 innings in six appearances this season. He has a 4.98 SIERA in those outings, which should only get worse if asked to eat a few more innings in a doubleheader.
Thomas has a serviceable .712 OPS on the season, but he’s the leadoff hitter in an above-average spot. He’s a solid DraftKings play for those needing to save some salary, with teammate Juan Soto ($5,600 DraftKings; NA FanDuel) also an option.
Alejandro Kirk ($5,000 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery)
Kirk could be an excellent pivot from J.T. Realmuto if Realmuto has the second part of the doubleheader off. Kirk is expected to bat cleanup for the Blue Jays, who have a 4.9-run total against the left-handed Montgomery. Kirk has been excellent in a limited sample against lefties, with a .869 OPS through 110 plate appearances. He’s also stupid cheap on FanDuel, with a 98% Bargain Rating.
