The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Joe Musgrove ($10,500) San Diego Padres (-264) vs. Colorado Rockies
With a 15-game main slate on Friday, there are plenty of pitching options to choose from. Musgrove stands out as the safest, if not the overall best choice. Vegas tells the story, with the Rockies implied for just 2.9 runs and Musgrove’s Padres as the biggest favorites on the slate.
Colorado’s offense has been anemic when not hitting in the thin Colorado air, ranking bottom-five in both wOBA and wRC+ when on the road. While Musgrove doesn’t quite have dominant stuff, his overall numbers are strong. This season, he has a 3.33 SIERA and 24.8% strikeout rate.
Nowhere else on the slate is the combination of pitching and matchup quite so strong. Of course, that comes at a premium. Musgrove’s salary is the highest on the slate. He hasn’t really shown the strikeout upside to pay off that salary — at least to the extent that can help you win a GPP.
He’s a very safe cash game option, but I have a hard time seeing Musgrove as a GPP-winner today. Still, he leads THE BAT’s median projections while coming in fourth in the FantasyLabs set.
Luis Severino ($10,300) New York Yankees (-250) vs. Chicago Cubs
Severino is my preferred $10,000+ pitcher for GPPs tonight. He has a matchup with the Cubs that, while not as good as Musgrove’s, is still very winnable. Chicago has a roughly league-average offense, but they’re only implied for 3.4 runs tonight against the Yankees.
Severino brings more upside than Musgrove, with a 27.6% strikeout rate that should be higher based on his swinging strike rate. He punched out 10 Tigers in his last outing and eight Rays in the start before that. His big fantasy performances have mostly come against bad teams, though, so he carries a bit of risk tonight.
This doesn’t feel like a slate where we need to fit any of the expensive pitchers, but Severino would be my choice if I was going that route. He could also be a contrarian option if most of the field is looking elsewhere for arms, so keep an eye on our ownership projections this afternoon. If his ownership comes in low, I’ll have some exposure to him.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Berrios ($7,500) Toronto Blue Jays (-215) at Detroit Tigers
Berrios is a tier or two below the top pitchers on today’s slate in terms of ability but has arguably the slate’s best matchup. Detroit ranks dead last in wRC+ in the majors and 29th in wOBA as a team. That makes rostering Berrios — with his 4.24 SIERA and 19.8% strikeout rate — much more palatable today.
Anytime we can get a -200 or better favorite in the $7,000 range on DraftKings, they’re going to stand out as a value. Berrios also has the second-best K prediction in our models, so there’s upside to be found here in addition to his relative safety.
Berrios ranks third in the FantasyLabs projections for Pts/Sal while coming in fourth in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Triston McKenzie ($8,800) Cleveland Guardians (-167) vs. Oakland A’s
McKenzie is essentially Berrios at a premium price today, as he has solid but unexceptional numbers and a tremendous matchup. The A’s rank dead last in wOBA as a team and ahead of only Detroit in wRC+. Both teams are also striking out at a 24% clip, another good sign for pitchers.
McKenzie’s salary makes him the clear GPP option, as most of the ownership will condense around the cheaper Berrios. McKenzie’s 4.23 SIERA is eerily similar to Berrios, though he has a better strikeout rate at 22.3%. The additional strikeout upside also helps make the GPP case for McKenzie, who leads our Models in K Prediction.
McKenzie trails only Berrios in ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs models while also trailing Severino and Musgrove in THE BAT.
At a significant discount from those two, he’s my preferred tournament option.
Spencer Strider ($7,000) Atlanta Braves (-205) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Strider is another former reliever who’s being stretched out into a starter, with 13 appearances on the season but only two starts. Those starts came in his two most recent appearances, and he lasted 8.1 innings between the two of them. While that’s not ideal for a moderately priced pitcher, he could potentially see his starts lengthen as he gets stretched out.
If he can make it even five or so innings, he’ll be a great GPP option today. He has an outstanding matchup with the Pirates, who sit just ahead of Detroit and Oakland in both wRC+ and wOBA on the season. Strider’s numbers are excellent as well, with a 2.91 SIERA and 36.8% strikeout rate.
Those numbers should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, though, as it’s a lot easier to dominate for an inning or two than as a starter. I wouldn’t expect him to continue to put up those numbers all season, but he has a chance to improve on them against Pittsburgh. His strikeouts have been just fine as a starter, picking up 12 in 8.1 innings of work in his two starts.
He struggled a bit more in run prevention in those outings, but he faced the Diamondbacks and Rockies, both on the road. A home game against one of the league’s worst offenses is a much better situation for him. He ranks third in Pts/Sal projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- George Springer (1) ($5,700)
- Bo Bichette (2) ($5,600)
- Vladimir Guerrero (3) ($5,400)
- Teoscar Hernandez (4) ($5,000)
- Alejandro Kirk (5) ($5,000)
With all 30 MLB teams in action on tonight’s slate, we’re spoiled for choice when it comes to picking stacks. The Blue Jays stand out as the best of the bunch, with the highest implied total on the slate. That also comes as a road team, making them the obvious choice for best overall option.
They’re taking on the Tigers and rookie pitcher Elvin Rodriguez ($5,100). Rodriguez was not expected to be a part of the Tigers rotation this season but has been thrust into duty thanks to injuries to the Tigers’ staff. Rodriguez is the Tigers pitcher who the Yankees noticed was tipping his pitches in his last start, leading to a 10-run score against him.
Even if we assume he’s fixed that issue, Rodriguez has still been very hittable in his other starts. He’s allowed eight runs in the other 11.2 innings he’s pitched this season. The talented Blue Jays lineup is unlikely to do him any favors, either. They’re a top-10 offense on the season and have scored 55 runs in eight June games.
Affording the complete Blue Jays stack is a challenge, with each of the top-five hitters coming in over $5,000. That should keep ownership down, but I’d prefer to roster mini stacks or wrap-around stacks with the bottom of the order hitters.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by Ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are another pricey stack, though the inclusion of Bellinger at least offers some salary relief. While they’re implied for “only” 4.7 runs today, that’s still one of the slate’s better totals. They’re on the road in San Francisco, where they’ll be taking on Giants starter Jakob Junis ($8,500)
Junis has solid numbers on the season, with a 2.51 ERA through eight games (six starts). His SIERA is a less-impressive 3.65, so he’s had a bit of luck in putting up the numbers he had. While he’s not a pitcher I’m going out of my way to stack against, he’s not one to avoid either.
Which keeps the Dodgers firmly in play, as they project as one of the best stacks on a nightly basis. In all but the toughest of pitching matchups, they’re worth a look. Today’s no different, and they should come in with relatively reduced ownership thanks to the matchup and the abundance of other options on the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($6,000 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs (Wade Miley)
If there was space for another stack in this article, it would certainly go to the Yankees. Their 5.4-run implied total is behind only Toronto and only narrowly behind. They’re taking on left-handed Miley of the Cubs as massive favorites. Miles is one of the luckiest pitchers on the slate, with a 3.38 ERA but a 4.67 SIERA.
Miley has also struggled to miss bats, with just a 15.4% strikeout rate. That’s a huge help to the free-swinging Stanton in particular and the Yankees lineup in general. That’s one of the reasons Stanton stands out as the top New York option, as his 28.3% strikeout rate is an issue in most matchups.
The other reason Stanton is my first choice is his platoon splits. He’s destroyed left-handed pitching in his career with a .997 OPS. I’d prefer to fit Yankees stacks or mini stacks tonight but will want some exposure to Stanton even if I can’t. That’s easier on FanDuel, where his 99% Bargain Rating makes him a near must-play.
Leury Garcia 2B/SS ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,100 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (Glenn Otto)
Friday’s slate has a ton of premium players in good spots, making finding the salary to fit them all challenging. Garcia can help with that. He’s projected to bat leadoff for the White Sox, who have a 4.8-run implied total against the Rangers tonight. Ranger’s starter Glenn Otto ($6,600) has a SIERA over five on the season, making this one of the better matchups.
Garcia checks all the boxes for a cheap option tonight: leadoff hitter, good pitching matchup, multi-positional eligibility. Keep an eye on our lineups page to make sure he really leads off, but if he does, he’s a great option tonight.
Rowdy Tellez 1B ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (Erik Fedde)
Tellez ranks second in THE BAT’s median projections for first baseman, coming in behind only the much more expensive Shohei Ohtani ($5,600). That obviously makes him a strong play tonight, as he’s the cleanup hitter for the Brewers as they travel to Washington.
Milwaukee has a 4.7-run implied total against Fedde, one of the more exploitable matchups on the slate. Fedde has particular issues with lefties, allowing them to hit .286 in his career. Tellez does his best work against right-handed pitching, with a 40-point uptick in OPS compared to against southpaws.
Tellez is reasonably priced for a player with his upside, making him another strong option to save salary on DraftKings today.
