The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,400) New York Yankees (-375) vs. Kansas City Royals
Cole is an obvious choice for the top arm on the slate today. He checks all of the usual boxes in a big way, leading the slate — or coming close to it — in a variety of categories. Cole has the best Vegas data on the slate, with Kansas City implied for just 2.8 runs and the Yankees checking in as -375 favorites.
He also has a ton of upside thanks to his slate-leading 32.3% strikeout rate, and his K Prediction is the highest on the slate. He’s taking on a Royals team that just traded away one of their better hitters, but even before that was a solidly below-average league offense.
There’s not much more that needs to be said about Cole, and he should be exceedingly popular even in a crowded pitching slate. No other arm has his combination of ability and matchup, so finding a way to fit his salary will likely be worth it.
He leads THE BAT’s projections in median and ceiling while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs set.
Alek Manoah ($9,400) Toronto Blue Jays (-420) vs. Detroit Tigers
Manoah is the lone pitcher on the slate with better moneyline odds than Cole, as his Blue Jays host the pathetic Tigers offense. Detroit is implied for just 2.9 runs, only slightly edging out the Royals.
That said, Manoah’s strikeout numbers lag well behind Cole’s. He’s struck out 23% of the batters he’s faced on the season, nearly 10% less than Cole’s mark. On the other hand, the Tigers strike out at a 3% higher rate against righties than the Royals, so some of that discrepancy is mitigated by the matchup.
Manoah is also -$1,000 cheaper today, which could be valuable with an expensive hitting stack playing at Coors Field. If Manoah can produce a score in the same range as Cole’s, that extra salary could differentiate lineups in a big way.
He leads all pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections while coming in at slightly lower projected ownership.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Lance Lynn ($6,800) Chicago White Sox (-200) vs. Oakland A’s
Lynn is one of a handful of big favorites on the slate, with five pitchers having moneyline odds of -200 or better. He’s the cheapest of the bunch by a wide margin, with every other option coming in north of $9,000 on DraftKings.
That makes him an obvious value, as he takes on the A’s struggling offense. While Oakland has moved back ahead of Detroit in wRC+, they’re at best the second-worst offense in the majors. Lynn has struggled to a 6.43 ERA on the season, but he’s been far better than those numbers suggest.
His SIERA, xERA, and FIP are all in the low fours at worst, and last season he had an ERA below 3.00 in 157 innings pitched. While some decline in ability is natural for the 35-year-old Lynn, he hasn’t posted a full-season ERA above 4.00 since 2018.
He has an excellent opportunity to prove that tonight against the A’s, making this an ideal buy-low opportunity. He scored over 20 DraftKings points in his last start against Cleveland, but low ownership kept his salary in check. If he repeats the feat against Oakland tonight, it’s unlikely he’ll be this cheap again any time soon.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Justin Verlander ($10,500) Houston Astros (-175) vs. Seattle Mariners
Verlander would probably be a chalky option on most slates, but the presence of Cole at a similar price point means Verlander could fly under the radar. Verlander has worse Vegas data, a tougher matchup, and is $100 more expensive than Cole, making it hard to justify the pivot.
On the other hand, he’s still Justin Verlander. While his strikeout numbers are a bit disappointing at “only” 26.1%, he has an insane 1.86 ERA through 18 starts. He’s averaging nearly 6.5 innings per start while pitching eight innings multiple times on the season.
He’s also picked up the strikeouts as the season progressed. Verlander missed all of 2021 and only pitched one outing in 2020, so he had to build back up following Tommy John surgery. In July, he struck out 27 hitters in 20 innings of work, including nine Mariners in his last outing.
While Cole is the better play on paper, JV is projecting for single-digit ownership today, roughly a third of what we have Cole projected for. I’d put his chances of outscoring Cole higher than one in three, making him a plus-EV GPP play.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (1) ($5,700)
- Trea Turner (2) ($5,600)
- Freddie Freeman (3) ($5,800)
- Will Smith (4) ($5,000)
- Jake Lamb (5) ($2,100)
The Dodgers were the top stack last night and didn’t disappoint. They scored 13 runs in Colorado, producing big fantasy scores across their lineup. Impressively — but frustratingly for DFS players — they managed to do so while failing to hit a single home run.
They have similarly strong projections on Friday, as they’re implied for a slate-leading 7.1 runs. They’re taking on Chad Kuhl ($5,500) of the Rockies, who has a reasonable 4.48 ERA but has higher SIERA and xERA numbers. Kuhl has an above-average flyball rate and below-average HR/FB ratio coming into Friday, a bad combination against the Dodgers.
The inclusion of Lamb in this stack is a nice bit of salary relief, particularly if he indeed hits fifth as our projected lineup currently has him. Cody Bellinger ($3,400) is another value option, with massive upside and a reasonable price, though Bellinger generally bats ninth.
The sharp angle tonight might be to roster Dodgers that are unlikely to be pulled early from a blowout. Yesterday, Turner and Freeman exited early. I’d guess Betts and Smith would be the likely candidates tonight, though they could still put up a big score before leaving.
Regardless, some Dodger exposure is crucial tonight, as they stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Dodgers DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
While they’re a far cry from the Dodgers in terms of implied runs, the Braves have an excellent 5.5-run total on Friday. There’s much to like about their matchup with Madison Bumgarner ($7,000) and the Diamondbacks.
Bumgarner has flashed competence at times this season but looks mostly washed. While he has a solid 3.71 ERA, all his leading indicators are in the upper fours, and his solid starts have mostly been against bad teams. Atlanta is certainly not that, especially against left-handed pitching.
They rank fifth in the majors in wRC+ against lefties, with an excellent 117 mark. None of the righties in this stack have extreme platoon splits, but they all fare slightly better against left-handed pitching.
The Braves are a solid pivot from the sure-to-be chalky Dodgers tonight, with combinations of both teams a viable strategy, particularly for lineups that save on pitching.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Ramiel Tapia OF ($3,300 DraftKings; $3,000) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (Bryan Garcia)
Tapia is an excellent value on DraftKings today. He’s the projected leadoff hitter for the Blue Jays, who have a 5.8-run implied total at home against the Tigers. Detroit is starting Bryan Garcia ($4,000), who they recently called up from Triple-A.
Garcia has been primarily a reliever, so asking him to start in the big leagues is a big ask. While his minor league numbers are solid (2.90 ERA), those are easier to achieve when only pitching an inning or two. As a major leaguer, he has a career ERA over six.
The Blue Jays are another stack worth considering today, but Tapia is the best value as a one-off play. He’s a bit pricey on FanDuel but has a solid 69% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Gleyber Torres 2B ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
The Yankees are another team worth stacking today, with their 5.9-run implied team total trailing only the Dodgers. They’re facing the Royals and left-hander Kris Bubic ($6,400). Bubic his SIERA and ERA numbers over five on the season, which are unlikely to improve against the dangerous Yankees lineup.
Torres is my favorite choice as a one-off option, though. He has strong platoon splits against lefties, with a .885 career OPS far better than his .760 mark against righties. More importantly, at 2B, he doesn’t take up a spot where the Dodgers feature a premium option.
Torres leads the FantasyLabs projections at second base, edging out teammate DJ LeMahieu ($5,400 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) and Gavin Lux ($3,600 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) of the Dodgers.
Christian Yelich ($4,500 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello)
Yelich is worth a look today, thanks to the matchup against Brayan Bello ($4,800) of the Red Sox. Bello was the Red Sox top pitching prospect coming into the season but has struggled early on in his major league career. He’s lasted just four innings in each of his three starts, allowing a total of 14 earned runs in 12 innings.
With Yelich’s reasonable price point and leadoff spot, he’s a strong option today. So are Brewers’ stacks, as their 5.2-run implied total leads all away teams outside of the Dodgers.
