The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-270) vs. Colorado Rockies
There’s a variety of high-end pitching options on Friday, with five arms projected for over 20 points in the FantasyLabs projections. Burnes sits above them all, in addition to leading THE BAT’s pitcher projections.
Burnes checks all of the boxes we’re looking for in a pitcher. His 2.14 ERA is excellent and mostly supported by his other pitching metrics: his xERA, SIERA, and FIP are all below 2.90. Additionally, his 32.6% strikeout rate ranks fourth in the MLB among qualified starters.
That strikeout rate is also supported by his underlying metrics, with his swinging strike rate ranking second in the majors behind only Shane McClanahan. Even though he’s putting up elite numbers, you could argue that he’s still been a bit unlucky.
What sets him apart today is the matchup. He’s taking on the Rockies, a team whose offense looks a lot worse when examined under the lens of park-adjusted metrics. For example, they rank sixth-worst in the league in wRC+ on the season. While there are slightly better matchups on the slate and other top arms set to pitch, Burnes brings the best combination.
Vegas agrees, with the Brewers the slate’s heaviest favorites, and Colorado implied for just 2.9 runs.
Max Scherzer ($10,400) New York Mets (-186) vs. San Diego Padres
Scherzer missed about six weeks of action due to an injury, returning to the Mets rotation early in July. That’s always a bit concerning with an older player like Scherzer, but those concerns were unwarranted in this case. He returned in top form, striking out 31 through 19.1 innings and allowing three runs in that three-game span.
Scherzer’s numbers are outstanding as always, with a 2.22 ERA on the season. His 34% strikeout rate is slightly better than Burnes, though he doesn’t qualify for the MLB leaderboard due to his missed time.
The matchup is the only reason to consider him as the 1B option on today’s slate. San Diego isn’t a terribly threatening offense, but they’re considerably more demanding than the Rockies. When you couple that with the slight premium on Scherzer’s salary, Burnes is the slightly better pick.
Ownership projections will be crucial here. If either of the two looks to be coming in as a noticeably less popular option, that one will be the better play. That’s likelier to be Scherzer tonight, so keep him in mind for GPPs. He trails only Burnes in median and ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Spencer Howard ($5,100) Texas Rangers (-115) at Oakland A’s
Howard is a pure matchup play, taking on the league-worst A’s offense. Howard has struggled in 2022 with a 6.97 ERA, but matchups with Oakland have a way of getting pitchers back on the right foot. The A’s also played a doubleheader yesterday, which could impact how fresh their hitters are.
Howard has also shown flashes of being better than his 2022 numbers indicate, with a much more reasonable 4.56 SIERA on the season. He’s a pitch-to-contact pitcher with just an 18% strikeout rate, but we don’t need a ton of strikeout upside at his price.
Pitching to contact may not be such a bad thing in Oakland either. This game features the second-best Park Factor and Weather Rating for pitchers on the slate. While those things aren’t hugely predictive overall, they have a far more significant impact on pitchers who allow a lot of balls in play.
Howard leads the FantasyLabs projections in Pts/Sal while coming in second to Charlie Morton ($8,800) in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shoehei Ohtani ($9,000) Los Angeles Angels (+130) at Atlanta Braves
Ohtani is priced at $9,000 today, which is probably slightly too expensive for his likeliest outcome. That’s because he’s facing the Braves, a top-10 offense overall. Atlanta is implied for 3.9 runs on Friday and are slight favorites over Ohtani and the Angels.
However, Ohtani has massive upside. He has a 35.4% strikeout rate coming into the game, with his average start lasting just under six innings per outing. The Braves have also slightly worse against right-handed pitching. Their wRC+ of 105 is only slightly above average, but they’ve beaten up lefties to a 119 wRC+.
More importantly, they strike out over 25% of the time against righties, the third-highest mark in the league. That’s a problem against Ohtani, who’s racked up double-digit strikeouts in his last four outings.
Ohtani will likely come in far lower owned than the other stud pitchers on the slate, thanks to the perceived difficulty of the matchup. That’s an ideal situation for tournaments, with Ohtani possessing arguably the highest upside on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- George Springer (1) ($5,100)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2) ($5,000)
- Alejandro Kirk (3) ($4,700)
- Bo Bichette (4) ($5,300)
- Teoscar Hernandez (5) ($4,400)
Toronto narrowly edges out a handful of Yankees’ combinations for the top-rated stack in the Tournament Model on Friday. They have a solid 4.5 run total as they travel to Fenway to take on the Red Sox and Nathan Eovaldi ($8,500).
Eovaldi has been good this year with a 3.34 ERA, but his xERA of 4.31 is more than a full run higher, suggesting he’s due for some regression. Toronto has also beaten up on right-handed pitching this season, ranking top-five in both wRC+ and OPS.
This stack is certainly overpriced relative to their run total, though. While that can be a bad thing, it might be a benefit in tournaments. Ownership should condense around cheaper or higher-total teams, leaving the Blue Jays to fly under the radar.
It’s important to consider the context of the slate as well. Most lineups will spend up on pitching, leaving higher-priced stacks out of reach. The Blue Jays lineup is packed with power — every member of this stack has double-digit homers on the season — and can produce a ceiling score in a hurry.
While they’re certainly not a value play today, Toronto’s stack has sneaky upside for GPPs.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Blue Jays DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by rating using THE BAT projections belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees have the highest implied run total on the slate of 5.1, with this stack coming in at the exact same price as the Blue Jays stack above.
That makes them an obvious target today as they travel to Baltimore to face Tyler Wells ($6,600) and the Orioles. Wells is one of the more exploitable pitching matchups on the slate, with a 4.58 SIERA that suggests considerable regression from his 3.38 ERA.
Much of that could come via the home run, as his 8.3% HR/FB ratio should be tested by Judge, Stanton, and company. Besides a strong Park Factor, this game also features excellent hitting weather for the Yankees. Our Weather Rating is 69, with 90-degree temperatures and wind blowing straight out.
As with the Blue Jays, ownership should also be relatively reasonable on the Yankees. They’re an excellent choice for tournaments if you can find the salary to squeeze them in.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Carson Kelly C ($3,200 DraftKings; $2,200 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
As I start to build lineups for tonight, salary is exceptionally tight. Fortunately, we have a relatively cheap catcher projected to bat leadoff to relieve some of that pressure. That’s Kelly, who’s a good deal on DraftKings and an absolute steal on FanDuel.
Kelly checks all the boxes today, as he has a juicy matchup with Patrick Corbin ($5,900) and the Nationals. Corbin has managed a few solid starts but has mainly been awful in 2022. He has an ERA and xERA in the mid-fives for the season.
Corbin is also left-handed, which is another boon to Kelly. Kelly has a career batting average of just .199 against right-handed pitching, but that mark jumps to .272 against lefties. His OPS against southpaws is a very strong .870, representing a substantial 250-point improvement over his mark against right-handers.
There’s not much more we could ask of a player in his price range, and he’s the top-rated catcher in the FantasyLabs Tournament Model.
Nick Castellanos OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
Castellanos is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel, where he stands out in a matchup against Cubs lefty Justin Steele ($7,100). Philadelphia is implied for 4.9 runs against Steele, who brings a 4.15 ERA into the contest. He’s also averaging less than five innings per start before giving way to a Cubs bullpen with the league’s seventh-worst ERA.
More importantly, Castellanos has a notable platoon edge. He’s a career .302 hitter against lefties, with an .879 OPS. His teammate Rhys Hoskins 1B ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) is in a similar position, though slightly more expensive and at a position with plenty of other strong options.
Willy Adames SS ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
There are a lot of strong offenses to stack tonight, so the Brewers may slip under the radar. That would be a mistake given the matchup with Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies. Senzatela has a 4.95 ERA on the season. Normally, one would assume that’s due to playing his home games at Coors Field. However, his 8.3% HR/FB ratio is well below the league average, so he doesn’t have that excuse.
Adames — a major positive regression candidate — is my favorite player to target him with. Adames is hitting just .220, but his BABIP of .243 is 80 points below his career average. He’s still managed 19 home runs for a solid .771 OPS on the year.
He’s also playing shortstop, a relatively weak position on today’s slate. That positional scarcity is important, and his salary is reasonable enough on both sites to be a good option with any lineup build.
