The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Robbie Ray ($9,800) Seattle Mariners (-188) at Texas Rangers
Ray leads the FantasyLabs median projections for Friday’s slate while coming in second in THE BAT. He’s been in excellent form as of late, with six consecutive starts of at least 19 DraftKings points, with three going for 29 or more.
He brings an identical 3.51 ERA and SIERA into this one to go with a 27.6% strikeout rate. His 15.2% swinging strike rate is nearly identical to last season’s mark when he struck out 32% of the batters he faced. That gives him room for improvement moving forward.
Ray also has strong Vegas data as nearly a -200 favorite, while Texas is implied for just 3.5 runs.
I have my concerns about Ray, though. Texas is an average offense overall, but they’ve had success against lefties this season. Their wOBA is tied for fifth in the majors against southpaws, while they rank third with a 118 wRC+. For context, that’s better than the Dodgers’ overall mark.
While Ray is likely to succeed despite all that, there are enough pitching options that I’m comfortable fading him given his double-digit ownership projections. He’s not a bad play, but we have options today.
Alek Manoah ($9,000) Toronto Blue Jays (-352) vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals are a bottom-10 offense in the majors under normal circumstances, and their series vs. the Blue Jays is anything but normal. Canada requires players to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to enter, with many Royals players thus unable to make the trip. They had to place 10 players on the restricted list before the series, leaving them with a ragtag group against the Blue Jays.
That list includes some of their better hitters, with Andrew Benintendi, Michael Taylor, and Whit Merrifield failing to make the trip. Therefore, rostering Blue Jays pitchers in this series is probably a good strategy, as their salaries haven’t changed to reflect the news.
Manoah isn’t just any Blue Jays pitcher either. He has a 2.34 ERA coming into the game while striking out 22% of the major leaguers he’s faced. Since he’s effectively facing a Quadruple-A team on Friday, he could easily outperform those numbers.
This is all reflected in the Vegas data, which has Toronto the heaviest favorites on the slate, and Kansas City implied for just 2.5 runs. Manoah trails only Ray in the FantasyLabs median projections.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Zach Plesac ($7,200) Cleveland Guardians (-189) vs. Detroit Tigers
Plesac is mostly a matchup play, as his Guardians host the Tigers on Friday. Detroit is the second-best matchup for pitchers, with only Oakland having worse team stats on the season.
Plesac has also been solid in his own right this year, with a 3.99 ERA. The problem is his lack of strikeout upside. He has just a 17% strikeout rate in 2022 and an 18.5% career mark. While the Tigers should boost that number a bit, it might not be enough to give Plesac a GPP-viable score.
Therefore, Plesac is a fine cash game play but a stretch for tournaments. I have a hard time seeing him strike out enough Tigers to outperform all of the studs on the slate in an absolute sense, though it could be close when you adjust for salaries.
He has the best Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection sets for Friday’s games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200) Milwaukee Brewers (-134) at San Francisco Giants
Woodruff isn’t necessarily a GPP pick by virtue of his ownership projection, which is near the top of the slate in both projection systems. He’s here because of the volatility he brings today, thanks to the matchup with the Giants. San Francisco features a top-10 offense by wRC+ on the season.
Woodruff is also a significant positive regression candidate. He has an ERA over four, but each of his leading indicators checks in below 3.00. It’s pretty apparent he’s been better than his 4.01 ERA. He also has a 31.9% strikeout rate, which would put him tied with Gerrit Cole for fourth-best in the league had Woodruff thrown enough innings to qualify.
He’s been dominant since missing most of June with an injury, racking up 27 strikeouts while allowing just four runs in 17 innings. He did face the Pirates twice in that stretch, so today’s matchup is a more formidable challenge.
It’s one he should still be able to win, but there are just enough questions to keep me away in cash games. He leads THE BAT in ceiling projection while ranking third in the FantasyLabs set.
German Marquez ($6,900) Colorado Rockies (-152) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
There’s a lot to like about Marquez tonight. He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projections in the FantasyLabs projections yet is projected for low single-digit ownership. He’s taking on Pittsburgh, the third-worst team by wRC+ in the majors, who also strike out at the second highest rate.
Of course, he’s also pitching at Coors Field, which puts his low ownership projections in context. The Pirates are implied for more than five runs, so Marquez should be considered for large-field GPPs only.
Marquez also has mediocre numbers, even when you factor out his home ballpark. His ERA on the road is 4.20, with a roughly league average .309 wOBA allowed. This game is played at his home ballpark, where his numbers are much worse.
On the other hand, the thin Rocky Mountain air doesn’t much matter if you don’t put the bat on the ball. Pittsburgh has a habit of failing to do so, making Marquez an interesting choice given his salary and ownership. I want to be overweight on him significantly if multi-entering tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
- Josh VanMeter (1) ($2,900)
- Dan Vogelbach (2) ($3,400)
- Kebryan Hayes (3) ($3,800)
- O’Neil Cruz (5) ($3,100)
- Ben Games (6) ($3,100)
If the case for Marquez wasn’t convincing enough, perhaps stacking the Pirates is more to your liking? They’re ultra-cheap for a team implied for over five runs, with this five-man stack checking in at just $17,300.
It’s a lefty-heavy lineup for Pittsburgh, with four of the five hitters in this stack (the exception being Hayes) hitting left-handed. That could be a good sign for them; Marquez’s career wOBA allowed is roughly 30 points higher against left-handed hitters.
Of course, the real appeal is the venue, with a game at Coors Field enough to boost any offense. Pittsburgh is a tough unit to trust, with only Cruz averaging more than 6.6 DraftKings points per game in the last year. I’ll keep my Pirates exposure to GPPs only, but a big score is probably coming from one side of the Pittsburgh vs. Marquez matchup.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top non-Padres DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by ceiling belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
As is often the case with a game at Coors, one of the teams involved leads the tournament ratings, and the other leads the ceiling projections. The Rockies fit the latter part of that description, thanks to their 6.2-run implied total on Friday.
They’re nowhere near as cheap as the Pirates but still relatively affordable at under $5,000 per player. There’s also a lot to like about their matchup against Pittsburgh’s Jose Quintana ($7,000). Quintana has solid numbers this season, with ERA and SIERA marks around 4.00, but he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, with a 22% strikeout rate. That’s a problem at Coors Field, where his 8.2% HR/FB ratio is unlikely to hold up.
Additionally, while the Rockies have a mediocre offense overall, they do well against left-handed pitching. They collectively have a 109 wRC+ against southpaws, and we can target players on the right side of their platoon splits. Bryant and Rodgers are the most extreme examples, but each member of this stack sees a boost to their OPS against lefties.
Pittsburgh also features the third-worst bullpen by ERA in the majors, so things should only get easier if and when Quintana exits.
Assuming you can find the salary, the Rockies full stack is an excellent choice tonight. If not, I’d still prioritize Rodgers and Bryant.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Steven Kwan OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers (Drew Hutchinson)
Cleveland is implied for a solid five-run total tonight as they take on the Tigers. Detroit is starting Drew Hutchinson ($5,000), another Tiger’s arm pressed into starting duty because of a depleted rotation. Hutchinson has a 4.08 ERA, with xERA and SIERA numbers over five.
The entire Guardians lineup is in play today, but Kwan stands out as the projected leadoff hitter. At his price tag, he’s a massive value. He leads all outfielders FantasyLabs tournament rating on FanDuel while coming in second on DraftKings.
Tommy Edman 2B/SS ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene)
There’s a lot to like about the matchup for Edman tonight. His Cardinals are implied for 4.9 runs against the Reds and Hunter Greene ($7,500). The rookie fireballer has electric stuff but has struggled to the tune of a 5.70 ERA so far this season.
Edman has solid speed, with 19 stolen bases already on the year. Greene is relatively wild, walking 10% of the batters he faces. That’s a good combination for the light-hitting Edman, as free passes give him extra chances to do damage on the base paths.
Additionally, Greene is averaging just five innings per start this year. Once he exits, the Reds’ historically bad bullpen takes over, providing more opportunities for the Cardinals and Edman.
St. Louis is a sneaky stack that could go overlooked due to the game at Coors, with Edman as the best value among them. He leads the FantasyLabs projections for second baseman, tying with Pittsburgh’s VanMeter.
Alex Bregman 3B ($4,900 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Oakland As (Cole Irvin)
Bregman draws another lefty matchup, this time with Cole Irvin ($6,800) of Oakland. I mentioned all the reasons to target Bregman vs. a lefty yesterday, and the situation is better today. Last night’s game was in Anaheim, which has a Park Factor of 14 for righties. With the Astros back at home, it’s a much more respectable 42.
Irvin is probably a better matchup as well. While his ERA is 3.32 on the year, his xERA is over five. Irvin has unsustainably low BABIP and HR/FB numbers, which could get challenged by the Astros tonight.
Bregman trails only Jose Ramirez ($5,400 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel) in the FantasyLabs projections at third base while coming in at a significant discount on both sites.
