The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday’s main slate features five games starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitching Picks
Studs
Max Scherzer ($10,200) New York Mets (-165) at Washington Nationals
Sherzer was originally slated to be the opening day starter but had his Mets debut pushed back a day. That leaves him in a class by himself in terms of high-end pitching options as the slate’s most expensive and best-projected arm.
It’s pretty safe to expect a solid game from Scherzer. Last season at age 36, he finished second in the MLB in strikeout rate and ERA among qualifiers while leading all starters in WHIP. He’s taking on the Nationals in a game with favorable Park Factor and Weather Rating scores for pitchers.
However, there are questions about whether he’s able to score enough to justify the salary premium. The leash will probably be a bit on the shorter side due to his injury situation (hamstring tightness). The Nationals implied Vegas total of 4.1 is also a bit higher than we’d like to see. (Though that’s probably based more on Max having a shorter start than him giving up runs.)
Still, his strikeout rate makes him a safe option even if he doesn’t pitch deep into this one. He leads the slate in K prediction at 6.83. I wouldn’t make finding the salary for Scherzer a priority, but if you find some value elsewhere, spending your surplus on Scherzer is never a bad move.
Charlie Morton ($8,400) Atlanta Braves (-190) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Morton is my preferred option over Jose Berrios ($8,900) as the best non-Scherzer option on the slate. Morton has the best Vegas data on the slate, with a -190 moneyline, and the Reds are implied for only 3.7 runs against him.
He’s superior to Berrios in some relevant secondary metrics as well. He has a lower SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average, a measure of ERA based only on the pitcher’s ability). He also has a better strikeout rate and swinging strike percentage relative to Berrios. (Both trail only Scherzer on the slate.)
The matchup is what really stands out, though. The Reds are the only team with a sub-4.0 implied run total on the slate.
The Weather Rating and Park factor also tilt Morton’s way. While you could certainly play both Morton and Berrios on DraftKings, Morton is my preference if only using one of them or playing on FanDuel.
Value Picks
Jake Odorizzi ($5,800) Houston Astros (-106) at Los Angeles Angels
None of Odorizzi’s metrics are particularly impressive. However, Paying just $5,800 for a (slight) favorite is a pretty good deal, particularly in the most pitcher-friendly park on the day’s slate.
Odorizzi had a mediocre 20% strikeout rate last season but limited hard contact and walks effectively. He feels a bit more like a cash game play for that reason, though if Shohei Ohtani ($6,300) and Mike Trout ($6,100) of the Angels end up being popular, the leverage on Odorizzi gives him some GPP appeal.
For Odorizzi to end up in the winning lineup, we probably need a day devoid of big scores from other pitchers. The odds of that are higher than usual, though, with only Scherzer having a 35-point ceiling projection. Odorizzi is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection at 2.7.
GPP Picks
Jon Gray ($5,400) Texas Rangers (+145) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Jon Gray seems like a positive regression candidate as he moves away from the unfriendly confines of Coors Field for the first time in his career. It’s not the most comfortable play, as Gray had an ERA over five on the road last season, but he also picked up more than a strikeout per inning.
Where he really stands on (on DraftKings) is in his Bargain Rating. At 98%, he’s quite the bargain. He also gives you a ton of lineup flexibility to play more expensive hitting stacks. If he’s able to miss a few bats against the Blue Jays, he’ll do enough to pay off his meager salary.
Gray is tied with Odorizzi for the Pts/Sal lead on the slate. I see Gray as more suited to GPPs, with Odorizzi the safer cash option, though. Gray has the higher opponent implied total but also more strikeout upside. He also allows you to roster the Angels’ top hitters without running into anti-correlation issues.
Gray is currently projected for less than half of Odorizzi’s ownership as well.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Trent Grisham (1) ($4,300)
- Manny Machado (2) ($5,200)
- Jake Croneworth (3) ($4,900)
- Luke Voit (4) ($4,000)
- Will Meyers (6) ($3,800)
This exact stack was projecting well yesterday as well but ended up fairly disappointing with only two runs scored by the Padres. However, that makes it an ideal time to go back to the well for tournaments. DraftKings reacted to the heavy ownership by juicing the prices on the Padres, which should combine with the disappointing performance to keep their ownership reasonable.
It’s a better matchup today as well. They’re set to face Merril Kelly, who held a 4.43 SIERA last season. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen could struggle a bit as well. They were forced to cover six innings last night, which likely leaves some arms unavailable for today’s contest.
Additionally, this stack offers some solid pivots. Eric Hosmer (5) ($3,900) could replace Voit at first base, and catcher Austin Nola (7) ($3,500) is one of the better options at his position as well. (Though lineup order correlation drops precipitously after the number-six hitter.)
The Padres are on the road, with a top-three implied run total and with the best hitting weather on the slate. All against one of the worst starting pitchers. What more could you want?
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top DraftKings from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
At well over half of the salary cap, this isn’t an easy stack to get to. However, premier bats like Ohtani and Trout can always provide you with a monster game. The Angels are implied for 5.0 runs against Houston’s Odorizzi. Ownership should also be fairly reasonable, as most lineups are likely to feature two of the three most expensive pitchers — which makes this stack an impossibility.
Given the uncomfortable pitching decisions this lineup forces, I’d limit it to tournaments only. They have the potential to blow the slate wide open, though, so they shouldn’t be overlooked.
Other Hitting Picks
Orlando Arcia 2B/SS ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,000 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds (Reiver Sanmartin)
Arcia makes the list not so much for his abilities but due to his spot in the order. We currently have Arcia projected to lead off for the Braves, making his $2,500 price tag notable. We all (should) know how much value hitting leadoff provides. According to our Trends Tool, leadoff hitters under $3,000 in salary have a positive 0.27 Plus/Minus score on average. (All hitters average out to a positive 0.11.
That doesn’t seem like much, but that figure jumps to a positive 0.99 when you include only players on teams with an implied run total of five or more. That’s the case for Arcia, as he’s projected to be the leadoff hitter for the team with the slate’s highest total.
We need to find value somewhere if we want to fit Padres or Angels stacks, and Arcia is the best option. Particularly with his positional flexibility, you can find a spot for him in almost any lineup. His 3.0 Pts/Sal and 2+.87 Projected Plus/Minus are both second on the slate among all hitters.
Update: Arcia is now hitting ninth. Robinson Cano ($2,400) is now the preferred value play at 2B.
Brandon Nimmo OF ($4,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) New York Mets at Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
Nimmo is another under-priced leadoff hitter, particularly on FanDuel. He has a very strong 93% Bargain Rating there. He’s a good play on DraftKings, too, though. He’s set to lead off for the visiting team, implied for the most runs on the slate.
That would make him the betting favorite to lead the slate in at-bats if such a market existed. Unlike Arcia, he’s also a solid hitter in his own right. His .838 OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) is above average, as is his matchup. Josia Gray allowed a .339 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.
Gray also had the worst ground-ball rate of any pitcher on the slate, giving Nimmo better-than-normal chances to send one out of the park. Nimmo checks all the boxes as a solid play here if you can find the salary.
Alejandro Kirk C ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers (Jon Gray)
Catcher is fairly thin on today’s slate, with no players projected over eight DraftKings points. Kirk comes the closest, though, at 7.98 points. While we don’t have to play a catcher on FanDuel, we do on DraftKings.
The third-year backstop has a career OPS of just under .800 and is projected to bat fifth for the Blue Jays. With their 5.1 implied run total, he should contribute something to the cause. I’m generally fine with punting to one of the dirt-cheap catchers, but the savings from Kirk to those options aren’t that big today.
He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus.
