The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday’s MLB main slate differs by site. FanDuel features a six-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET, while DraftKings features a five-game slate starting at 7:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Two names stand out at the top of the pricing spectrum on Friday: Clayton Kershaw and Brandon Woodruff. Kershaw is an all-time great pitcher, and he will be a no-doubt first-ballot Hall-of-Famer when he eventually hangs it up. That said, he’s not a particularly appealing DFS option at this point in his career. He’s still capable of getting excellent results on the mound, but he’s not quite a stud pitcher for DFS purposes. He’s priced at $10,800 on FanDuel for Friday’s matchup vs. the Diamondbacks, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -6.14 with a comparable salary since the start of 2020 (per the Trends tool).
That leaves Woodruff as the top stud arm on this slate. Woodruff doesn’t have a great matchup vs. the Cardinals, resulting in mediocre Vegas data for his price tag. However, Woodruff brings plenty of strikeout upside to the table. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.58 in each year since 2019, and he racked up eight strikeouts across six innings in his first outing of 2023. He also allowed just one run in that contest, and he had a sparkling 2.23 SIERA.
Overall, Woodruff leads all pitchers with a 5.93 K Prediction on Friday. That’s not an elite number by any stretch, but he’s the most likely candidate to put up a big score. His ceiling projection is nearly five points higher than the rest of the pitchers on this slate per THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Zach Eflin is not available on the DraftKings main slate, but he’s arguably the top option of the day on FanDuel. He’s priced at a slight discount compared to Kershaw and Woodruff, but he has the clear best Vegas data.
Eflin is taking on the A’s, who were awful offensively in 2022. They were 29th in the league in runs per game, and they finished 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They also had the sixth-highest strikeout rate in that split, so they were one of the best possible matchups for opposing pitchers. The A’s don’t figure to be much improved in 2023, and they’re off to another slow start at the dish.
As a result, Eflin’s Vegas numbers are elite. He leads all pitchers with a 3.0 opponent implied team total, and he’s a slate-best -262 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.96 with a comparable salary.
Eflin is also a major improvement candidate in 2023. He’s historically had excellent peripherals, posting a SIERA of 3.81 or better in each of the past three years. While the Phillies were never able to unlock Eflin’s full potential, the Rays are the perfect organization to get him there. They are one of the best-run organizations in baseball, and they routinely get the most out of the players they acquire.
Eflin looked the part in his first start of the year, limiting the Tigers to one run across five innings. Eflin managed five strikeouts and allowed just four baserunners in that outing, resulting in a 1.83 FIP. Like the A’s, the Tigers were an elite matchup for right-handers last season, so it’s good to know that he can take advantage of good spots.
MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Jack Flaherty missed most of the 2022 season with injuries, and he hasn’t pitched more than 78.1 innings since 2019. However, he was outstanding in that season, posting a 10.59 K/9 and a 2.75 ERA. Flaherty struggled mightily with his control in his first start of the year, walking seven batters in just five innings. That said, he still managed to keep a talented Blue Jays’ lineup off the scoreboard. Things aren’t going to get any easier for him against a Brewers’ lineup that just destroyed the Mets over a three-game series, but he has some upside if he can find his old form. He stands out as one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 66%.
Jared Shuster was extremely impressive for the Braves in Spring Training, posting a 1.74 ERA across 20.2 innings. That was enough to earn him a spot in the rotation. He struggled in his first professional start, surrendering four runs over 4.2 innings vs. the Nationals, but nerves were likely a factor. He should improve moving forward, and he’s dirt-cheap at $6,200 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Padres. Only Woodruff owns a better points-per-dollar projection in THE BAT, making him an interesting choice at SP2 if you’re looking to spend up on offense.
Speaking of pitchers who had rough debuts, Chris Bassitt was touched up for nine runs over 3.1 innings in his first start with the Blue Jays. That said, Bassitt is a quality pitcher. He’s posted an ERA of 3.81 or better in each of his past five seasons, including 3.42 with the Mets in 2022. His matchup vs. the Angels is tough on paper, but the Angels aren’t an elite offensive team by any stretch of the imagination. They had the top strikeout rate against right-handers last season, and they’re just 17th in that split to start 2023.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also like Bassitt’s strikeout prospects in this spot:
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack using THE BAT X when optimizing by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
Coors Field is available on this slate, and most of the options for the Rockies and Nationals stand out as pretty underpriced. They both rank in the top three in terms of implied team total – the Rockies are first at 5.8 runs, the Nationals third at 5.5 – so they should be extremely popular stacking targets on this slate.
That could make a team like the Braves undervalued. They’re currently implied for 5.1 runs, and their offense is on the expensive side. Their top stack per THE BAT is going to set you back nearly $24,000 on DraftKings, so they’re going to be a lot tougher to fit around a pitcher like Woodruff or Kershaw.
Of course, the Braves’ offense brings considerable upside to the table. They’re taking on right-hander Nick Martinez, and the Braves ranked first in ISO against right-handed pitchers last season. Their lineup is loaded with guys who can take you deep, and they’ve averaged 5.57 runs per game to start the year.
Martinez should be particularly exploitable for the Braves’ left-handed hitters. He allowed 1.66 homers per nine innings in that split last season, resulting in a 4.84 FIP. Right-handers posted a 4.08 FIP against Martinez in 2022, but they did so with considerably less power.
Matt Olson stands out as a priority stud target. He had a down year in his first season with Atlanta, but he’s off to a tremendous start in 2023. He’s already launched three homers, and he owns an elite 200 wRC+. I think he has a shot hit 40 homers for the first time in his career if he can stay healthy, and he certainly has the potential to take Martinez deep on Friday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jeimer Candelario 1B/3B ($2,900 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (Jose Urena)
It’s going to be really tough to pass up on Candelario in cash games, particularly at just $2,900 on DraftKings. He’s expected to hit third for the Nationals at Coors Field, and you’re not going to find a Coors batter with a premium lineup spot for such an affordable price tag very often. Candelario will also have the splits advantage against Urena. Urena was victimized by left-handed batters in 2022, surrendering a .379 wOBA in that split. He was unsurprisingly at his worst when facing lefties at Coors Field, pitching to a 6.49 FIP while surrendering 1.90 homers per nine innings. Candelario isn’t the most dangerous hitter, but this is too good a spot to pass up.
Rowdy Tellez 1B ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Jack Flaherty)
Tellez owns one of the best per-dollar projections in our blended set, thanks mostly to his big power potential. Tellez quietly hit 35 homers for the Brewers in 2022, with 31 of them coming against right-handed pitchers. He took Max Scherzer deep for his first homer of the year earlier this week, and Flaherty was subpar against lefties in his limited time last season. He surrendered a .368 wOBA to lefties across 96 plate appearances, and he allowed 1.27 homers per nine innings. Tellez has much more upside than his current price tag suggests, especially at just $2,500 on FanDuel.
Miguel Vargas 2B ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Cardinals (Madison Bumgarner)
The Dodgers seem to bring a new All-Star-caliber prospect up to the big leagues every season, and Vargas is the guy in 2023. He’s off to a ridiculous start in 2023, posting a 255 wRC+ across 18 plate appearances, and he’s reached base in all three of his plate appearances against southpaws. Bumgarner has become an extremely hittable left-hander over the past few seasons, and he was absolutely lit up by the Dodgers in his first start of the year. They’re currently implied for 5.6 runs, and Vargas is a cheap way to get exposure to their potent lineup.
