The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday’s main slate features 13 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Lucas Giolito ($9,500) Chicago White Sox (-125) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Giolito leads the FantasyLabs projection set for both median and ceiling projection for Friday’s slate. Giolito has been excellent in both starts this year, allowing just one run and striking out 15 over eight combined innings of work. Of course, it’s a bit concerning that he’s only made two starts and pitched four innings in each of them.
That’s because Giolito had a brief stint on the injured list following his opening day start. He looked just fine in his return the last time out, though. It stands to reason that he should have a longer leash this time though. He threw just 76 pitches last time out but should be in line for a longer outing today if everything goes well.
Ideally, he’ll also be more efficient with his pitches. That could combine to see him work six or so innings in a perfect world. There is some risk, though. It’s a difficult matchup against a solid Angels lineup, and he’d have a hard time justifying his salary if he only lasts four or five innings again. There are also concerns about rain coming in once this game gets underway, which would end Giolito’s day early. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather report from Chicago as we approach lock.
Still, Vegas doesn’t think Giolito should have any problems here. The Angels are implied for just 3.4 runs, one of the lower marks on the slate. Our models also give him a slate-leading K Prediction, though that comes from a very aggressive projected pitch count of 97. Giolito carries enough risk to make for a better GPP play than cash game, but his upside is the highest on the slate.
Frankie Montas ($8,100) Oakland A’s (-143) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Montas is the inverse of Giolito here. He brings a higher degree of safety but considerably less upside relative to the White Sox ace. Montas is the beneficiary of one of the slate’s best matchups, with the Guardians implied for just 3.1 runs as they travel to Oakland.
That’s not just a reflection on Cleveland’s offensive struggles, though. Montas has been solid all year following a rough opening day. He’s allowed no more than two runs in three consecutive starts, while lasting at least six innings in each of them. Both his strikeout and swinging-strike rate (dating back to last season) are good-not-great, though he did fan eight in his last appearance.
Either way, Montas is a strong option today. He’s the leader in median projection in THE BAT’s projection system and trails only Giolito in the FantasyLabs set. While you can certainly roster both, the better pick for GPPs will almost certainly come down to ownership. Be sure to check our projections later in the day to see where we have both pitchers.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Bradish ($4,400) Baltimore Orioles (+118) vs. Boston Red Sox
At a minimum salary of just $4,000, the Orioles’ minor-league call-up is a strong value play almost by default. Generally, the only pitchers we see in the $4K range are “openers,” but Bradish is a traditional starter. He’s averaged five innings per appearance across three AAA starts so far this season.
He was excellent in those AA starts, allowing just two runs while striking out 17 (for a 29.8% K rate.) Obviously, it won’t be so easy at the big-league level, but he should have the stuff to pick up some points against the Red Sox. Betting markets are putting some respect on his name as well, with the Orioles as only slight underdogs to Boston.
Facing the Red Sox — in a hitter-friendly park — isn’t the ideal situation to make your big-league debut. On the plus side, Bradish throws right-handed. The Red Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching to the tune of a .284 wOBA to start the season. Bradish leads both the FantasyLabs and THe BAT projection systems in Pts/Sal projections. He’ll be a valuable salary saver in lineups with costly hitting stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Greene ($6,500) Cincinnati Reds (+104) at Colorado Rockies
“At Colorado” is never a great start to a blurb about a pitcher, but Greene has some appeal here. He’s been one of baseballs unluckiest pitchers, with a SIERA more than 1.5 runs lower than his ERA dating back to 2021. Despite that, he’s actually been solid in tough matchups so far this year. He held both the Dodgers and the braves to three runs each while lasting at least five innings in both outings. His swinging-strike rate is also indicative of a positive regression in his strikeout numbers, which currently sit at 26.2 percent.
This is still more of a game-theory pick than anything else, though. The Rockies lineup is not as fearsome as it has been in recent years, with the departures of both Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story in the offseason. While that was mitigated by the addition of Kris Bryant, he’s missed three straight games and isn’t likely to return tonight.
Pitchers at Coors will always have minuscule ownership, so Greene is worth considering against a weak Rockies lineup. This is obviously a GPP-only play, though, as it doesn’t take much for starters to get blown up at Coors Field. Still, I’d want some exposure to Greene if multi-entering tonight. He trails only Bradish in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs set, though THE BAT is more bearish on his prospects tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
- Jonathon India (1) ($3,500)
- Tyler Naquin (2) ($2,900)
- Tommy Phan (3) ($2,700)
- Joey Votto (4) ($2,800)
- Kyle Farmer (5) ($2,800)
We have a fun matchup between a very stoppable force in the Reds lineup against a highly movable object in Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela ($5,00). Oddsmakers are on the side of the offense, though, with Cincinnati implied for 5.2 runs at Coors Field.
Anytime we can get bats at Coors this cheap, it’s extremely tempting. DraftKings hasn’t been pricing up bats there nearly as much this year as in the past, which feels like a bit of an edge early on. I expect that to shift as the season goes on (since ownership factors into their pricing), but we should take advantage of it now.
Particularly in a good matchup. Senzatela has a SIERA of 4.45 and has struggled against left-handed hitting in particular. They have a .338 wOBA against him since the start of last year, which is especially good news for Votto and Naquin.
With all of the available salary on today’s slate, you might not need to use the Reds’ full stack. However, mixing and matching pieces around a more expensive team is a solid strategy.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
As usual, the talented Dodgers lineup is popping from a ceiling standpoint. While they certainly aren’t cheap, this is a good slate to try to fit them in, given the value elsewhere on the slate. They’re taking on the Tigers and lefty Tyler Alexander ($5,900). With Los Angeles implied for five runs, one of the highest totals on the slate.
Alexander is far from an intimidating pitching matchup as well. He allowed five runs in his last outing, and lasted just one inning the start before. That could mean a long night for the Tigers bullpen, who were heavily used in their last series against the Twins.
The Dodgers have baseball’s best lineup top to bottom, so variations on this stack are all worth considering. Particularly those that fit in more left-handed bats. Both Max Muncy ($5,000) and Cody Bellinger ($4,000) are projected for less than five percent ownership. They’re a good way to get unique if building Dodgers stacks, especially with the assumption that it’s a short night for Alexander.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Charlie Blackmon OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $4,000 FanDuel): Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene)
If Greene feels too risky as a pitching option, consider some hitters against him. Blackmon stands out as the best DraftKings play of the group, given his platoon advantage against the right-handed Greene. The 35-year-old Blackmon doesn’t seem to be slowing down, with an OPS over .800 and four homers on the year. That’s despite a career-low .277 BABIP.
While BABIP should reasonably decline with age (as player’s foot speed slows down), Blackmon’s still due for some regression in that category. He has a positive Projected Plus/Minus in both The BAT and FantasyLabs projection systems.
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($4,600 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
The Yankees have the highest implied total of any road team outside of Coors Field as they travel to Kansas City. They also have a left-hander on the mound opposite them, which is great for Stanton. His career OPS is just a hair under 1.000 against lefties, with a slugging percentage over .600.
While teammates Aaron Judge ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) and Anthony Rizzo $5,100 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) have gotten off to the better starts, Stanton is my preferred option today. He has the most extreme platoon splits of the Yankees sluggers while coming in the cheapest of the bunch. Rizzo and Judge are solid plays as well, though.
Alex Bregman 3B ($4,900 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays (Yuseki Kikuchi)
Bregman is another hitter with extreme left/right splits, batting nearly 50 points higher in his career against southpaws. While Kikuchi isn’t one of the easier pitching matchups on the slate, he’s not particularly intimidating either. He’s allowed a .360wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of last season.
Toronto is also a solid hitters park, with a 63 Park Factor. While we currently have a pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in our models, that’s assuming the roof at the Rogers Center is open. If the weather shakes out how similar to the current forecast — with temperatures in the mid-40s and wind blowing in — I’d expect the roof to be closed. That’s a boost to bats in this game as well.
