Sunday features Game 2 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros at 8:08 p.m. ET.
The single-game format will take center stage, so let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated. For starters, you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier, but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — last year they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers — but they still have the potential to provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Both teams will be sending strong starting pitcher options to the mound.
Let’s start with Justin Verlander. He’s coming off a disappointing outing in his last start, allowing four earned runs over just 3.2 innings vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. That said, that start was on short rest, and he’s been excellent this season. It’s definitely reasonable to give him the benefit of the doubt.
He’ll be on normal rest today vs. the Yankees, who represent a difficult matchup. Their projected lineup has posted a .362 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they ranked third in ISO vs. right-handers during the regular season. The Yankees were also missing regulars like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for much of the year, so it’s possible that their numbers understate how good this offense actually is.
Verlander was merely pedestrian in two meetings vs. the Yankees during the regular season. He pitched to a 4.15 ERA and 10.4 K/9, resulting in an average of 21.13 DraftKings points per start.
Overall, Verlander’s Vegas data in this matchup is solid. He’s a -169 favorite and owns an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.57 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
What really makes Verlander intriguing is his strikeout upside. The Yankees’ offense can be strikeout prone — their projected lineup owns a 25.4% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months — and Verlander owns a K Prediction of 9.0. His strikeout prop is currently listed at 8.5, so he has plenty of upside in that department.
He carries some risk, but he also has the highest projections across the board in our MLB Models.
The Yankees will turn to James Paxton to try to bring a 2-0 series lead back to New York. His first start of the postseason was a bit of a mixed bag: He racked up eight strikeouts, but he also allowed three runs over just 4.2 innings. Ultimately, it resulted in just 16.0 DraftKings points.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton (65)
He’s in a brutal spot vs. the Astros, who finished the regular season first in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers, and also posted the lowest strikeout rate vs. left-handers. Thats an awful combination for opposing pitchers.
The Yankees bullpen is another factor. Paxton figures to be on a much shorter leash than Verlander, especially since the Yankees didn’t have to lean on their relievers much in Game 1.
Paxton has a nice ceiling in this spot, but he also has a pretty low floor.
The Astros will likely try to get as much as possible from Verlander today, which limits the appeal for the bullpen. They have a few options priced at the absolute minimum — Ryan Pressly, Will Harris and Roberto Osuna all fit that description — but none is guaranteed to enter this contest. Even if they do, they’ll likely be limited to just one inning each. I’m probably not targeting the Astros’ bullpen unless you want to jam in both Verlander and Paxton.
The Yankees bullpen is the more appealing option. Aroldis Chapman didn’t pitch in Game 1, so he should be available for today’s contest. He’s already been used for more than one inning this postseason, and he always has big strikeout upside.
Chad Green and Zach Britton are also priced at the minimum, and they are prime targets to enter this contest at some point.
Batters
Yankees Projected Lineup
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 6. Brett Gardner (L)
- 7. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 8. Giovanny Urshella (R)
- 9. Didi Gregorious (L)
No one on the Yankees really stands out as an elite target vs. Verlander. The top of their lineup is loaded with right-handed batters, and Verlander has limited righties to a .247 wOBA this season. Still, you’re not going to want to completely avoid them.
Stanton stands out as a really cheap source of potential power. He went yard in yesterday’s contest, and his $6,200 salary makes him the second-cheapest member of the Yankees’ offense. Stanton was limited to just 18 games during the regular season, but he did hit 38 HRs in 2018 and 59 HRs in 2017. He is definitely better against left-handers than right-handers, but he still has prodigious power regardless of who’s on the mound.
LeMahieu was undoubtedly the best free-agent acquisition of the offseason. He should garner some MVP consideration after posting career-best marks across the board. He’s expected to occupy the valuable leadoff spot in the Yankees’ lineup, and he’s had some success vs. Verlander throughout his career. He owns five hits over 15 career at bats, and one of those hits resulted in a home run.
Judge seems underpriced at just $8,600. He leads all Yankees’ batters in ceiling projection even though he’s on the wrong side of his splits. He was lethal against left-handers this season, but he still posted a 121 wRC+ vs. right-handers.
If you’re looking for a value option, consider Gregorious — he’s one of the few batters with the splits advantage on Verlander, and he’s had good success against him throughout his career. Batting in the No. 9 spot in the lineup isn’t ideal, but it does provide some correlation with the batters at the top of the order.
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Altuve (R)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 6. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 7. Carlos Correa (R)
- 8. Robinson Chirinos (R)
- 9. Jake Marisnick (R)
The Astros should be the more popular team target. They own the superior implied team total, and their offense features more players on the positive side of their splits.
Altuve and Bregman in particular have crushed left-handers this season. Altuve has posted a 176 wRC+ vs. southpaws, while Bregman has posted a 205 wRC+. Both players are elite options if you can afford them.
Springer owns a similar price tag to Altuve and Bregman, but he’s not been as effective vs. southpaws this season. He’s a reverse splits hitter, meaning he’s a right-handed batter who actually fares better against right-handed pitching. He’s still a great hitter batting in a premium lineup spot, but I much prefer his two superstar teammates.
Chirinos is one of my favorite values on the slate. He’s priced at just $5,400 on DraftKings, which makes him one of the cheapest batters for either team. He’s also displayed big pop against southpaws over the past 12 months, posting a .396 wOBA and .183 ISO. Overall, he’s a much better hitter than his current salary indicates.
Stacking Chirinos with Correa at the bottom of the order has some merit. Correa has been limited by injuries for much of the year, but he’s still been productive when in the lineup. He’s been at his best vs. left-handed pitchers, posting a 160 wRC+.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Astros SP Justin Verlander (35)
Photo credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
