The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel will offer a 15-game all-day slate, along with a three (FanDuel) and seven-game (DraftKings) early slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Both seven-game main slates begin at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Blake Snell (L) $12,000, TB vs. KC
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,000, HOU vs. MIN
Snell (toe) is coming off the injured list after missing his last start. He threw a bullpen session on Monday with no setbacks so he appears healthy enough get thrown back into action. If he’s not limited on the mound, he’s easily the top option on the early slate.
Snell leads the way with his 9.1 K Prediction against a projected Royals lineup with a 25.7% strikeout rate and pedestrian .311 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against lefties over the past 12 months. Additionally, they could struggle to generate runs as they rank just 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this year.
Overall, Snell has returned value in three of his four starts this season, and that should be the case again provided he’s healthy enough to pitch a full game. He’s the top-rated pitcher in the Bales Model.
The next ace on the mound on Wednesday is Verlander, who checks in as the most-expensive pitcher on the main slate. His 8.1 K Prediction is the only K Prediction on the main slate above 6.8 at the time of writing.
The matchup on paper doesn’t stand out against a projected Twins lineup that has a middling 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Additionally, they’ve been solid against righties this year, ranking fourth in wRC+ and second in ISO.
Despite the less-than-stellar matchup on paper, Verlander remains the top selection on the main slate considering his skillset and strikeout potential relative to the other options. The Twins’ 3.5 implied run total is the lowest mark on the main slate, and the Astros are the slate’s largest favorite, sitting at -260 on the moneyline.
Values
Eduardo Rodriguez is more of a value on FanDuel, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating, but he’s still a viable option on DraftKings. He’s been more miss than hit this season, as he’s averaged a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his four starts. However, his 4.21 xFIP is nearly three runs lower than his ERA, suggesting he’s been rather unlucky so far. His Statcast data also confirms this, since he’s sporting excellent batted-ball data with his 192-foot average distance, 87-mph exit velocity and 25% hard-hit rate over this past two starts.
On tap is a projected Tigers lineup with a 25.1% strikeout rate and .283 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. They also don’t have much power against lefties, evidenced by their .124 team ISO against them. This could be a prime rebound spot for Rodriguez with his +55 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL).
Jordan Lyles is more of a DraftKings play with his 81% Bargain Rating. His 5.0 K Prediction isn’t the best, but he’ll be in a pitchers park (Park Factor 86) where the Diamondbacks are implied for a meager 3.9 runs. Additionally, the Diamondbacks’ .294 wOBA is the third-lowest mark on the main slate. Lyles is at least a solid floor play at his salary on DraftKings. Through his three starts this season, he’s averaged a +10.27 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 67% Consistency Rating.
Fastballs
Walker Buehler and Cole Hamels are better off as tournament options on the main slate. Their game is close to a pick’em with the Cubs sitting at +104 on the moneyline and -113 for the Dodgers at the time of writing. The projected Dodgers lineup has a high 25.2% strikeout rate, but they also have a top-three wOBA and rank 11th in wRC+.
Buehler has returned value and pitched at least five innings in just one start this year. He’s pitched to a 4.48 xFIP, which is slightly below average among starters this season. If he struggles against the Cubs early on, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him disappoint, which seems plausible against an offense that ranks seventh in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year.
Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler
It is worth noting that the Dodgers are receiving most of the sharp money at the time of writing. They’re currently seeing 47% of the bets, but 88% of the money.
Overall, pitching options after Verlander don’t pique a lot of interest given their lack of strikeout potential and upside.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 2. Marcus Semien (R)
- 3. Matt Chapman (R)
- 5. Kendrys Morales (S)
Total salary: $15,400
With some Vegas totals off the board at the time of writing, the Athletics presently have the second-highest total on the early slate with their 5.2 implied run total. Chapman has demolished right-handed pitchers over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .376 wOBA and .238 isolated power (ISO). He’s also in tremendous form with his Statcast data, boasting a 248-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate.
The top four-man FanDuel stack on the main slate when generated by projected points belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
Total salary: $15,500
The Red Sox make for an expensive stack, but that’s not surprising given 5.8 implied run total against the right-hander Tyson Ross.
Everyone in this stack has fared well against righties over the past 12 months: Benintendi and Moreland each have wOBAs over .330, while Betts and Martinez have elite wOBAs above .420. Not to mention the power this group boasts against righties. With the exception of Benintendi, everyone has an ISO of .228 or higher against right-handed pitchers.
Most notably, Moreland has torched the ball of late, possessing a 250-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate. All of which exceed his 15-day/12-month averages.
Other Batters
Given the Rockies are one of two teams on DraftKings’ early slate with an implied total over 5.0 runs, it might not be a bad idea to get some exposure to them. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are the cheapest hitters who will be batting the top four, and they’re the only two on the positive side of their batting splits among that group. Blackmon boasts considerable power for a leadoff hitter, sporting a .212 ISO against righties over the past year. And Dahl, expected to hit from the No. 2 spot, has a solid .384 wOBA and .277 ISO. You’ll have to be on FanDuel’s all-day slate to use them on that particular site.
Ervin Santana has gotten rocked in his first two starts this season, allowing 13 hits, five home runs and 10 earned runs across just 8.2 innings pitched. Trey Mancini Jonathan Villar and Dwight Smith Jr. project the best in our models among Oriole hitters for the main slate. Smith Jr. will get the lefty vs. righty matchup, and he possesses a .369 wOBA and .243 ISO against them over the past 12 months. Overall, the Orioles rank as a top-two team in Team Value Rating in our Vegas Dashboard.
Alex Bregman stands out among third basemen on Wednesday, leading them in floor, median and ceiling projections on the main slate. He possesses exceptional power against righties with his .405 wOBA and .259 ISO against them. Bergman is an excellent spot against Kohl Stewart, who was just called up from AAA Rochester to make the start on Wednesday.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jonathan Villar
Photo credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
