The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 13-game slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slate are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Shane Bieber (R) $11,000, CLE @ CIN
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,700, WSH vs NYM
Bieber headlines the Tuesday slate against the Reds as the highest-priced pitcher.
The 25-year-old broke out as a true ace last season, posting a 3.28 ERA and 3.23 Expected Field Independent Pitching (xFIP). His opening showings against the Royals and Twins inspire optimism that he will continue to dominate against the Reds on Tuesday. He has yet to give up a run on the year in 14 IP and his FIP is a ridiculous -0.39. He has struck out 27 batters and has a Base Performance Value (BPV) of 316.
Bieber’s recent history against Cincinnati is encouraging, with a 2.25 ERA and 200 against the Reds last season.
Bieber’s Vegas matchup jumps off the page as a solid option with the Indians as -155 favorites, implying a 60.78% chance of winning. The Reds are implied to score 3.6 runs, which is the third-lowest on today’s slate. His ceiling is projected for 58.60 points in the Bales Model, which ranks first among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Bieber.
Another stud pitcher on the slate is Patrick Corbin, who has been his dominant self to start in 2020. The 31-year-old was a key part of the Nationals’ World Series championship as he posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.49 FIP. His strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) stayed above 10 for the second year in a row.
Corbin’s recent history against New York is encouraging, with a 3.48 ERA and 165 BPV against the Mets last season.
Corbin’s Vegas matchup is one of the better values, as well. The Nationals are -145 favorites, implying a 59.18% chance of winning. The Mets are implied to score 3.9 runs, which is on the lower end on today’s slate. Corbin is a strong option today and projected for 33.78 points in the Bales Model, which ranks third among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Values
Max Fried is pitching at home in Truist Park, where he posted an ERA of 3.21 last season. In 2020, Fried is off to a great start with a 2.31 ERA and 0.69 WHIP.
He also has a nice matchup against the Blue Jays, whose offense is projected to score 3.9 runs. Fried has a 59.25 rating on the Bales Model, which is the third highest on today’s slate. As a result, Fried stands out as a strong fantasy option on FanDuel, where he can be found at $8,500.
Kyle Hendricks has been nothing short of spectacular in 2020 at home. In 2019, Hendricks had a 2.04 ERA at home compared to a 5.02 ERA on the road. Lucky for Hendricks, today’s start against the Kansas City Royals takes place at home. He threw a complete game shutout in his only start at home in 2020.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Hendricks
Hendricks has one of the best matchups on today’s slate, as the Royals’ implied run total is 3.4. That is tied for the lowest on today’s slate.
He has a 57.95 rating Bales Model, which is top five. As a result, Hendricks can be found on FanDuel at a price of $8,300.
Fastballs
Jesus Luzardo is pitching at home against the Texas Rangers. The 22-year-old will be making his first start of the 2020 season after being used as a long reliever in his first two appearances.
Luzardo has the second-highest rating on the Bales Model at 59.73. The Rangers are implied to score 3.4 runs, which is tied for the lowest on today’s slate.
Nathan Eovaldi comes into his third start of 2020 with a 2.45 ERA. The 30-year-old gets to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays, who once again will be missing their best bat in Austin Meadows.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. David Dahl (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
Total Salary: $16,000
The Rockies are implied for 6.5 runs, which ranks first on the main slate. Moreover, they are facing a San Francisco team that is ranked 31st in runs per game allowed this season.
Dahl stands out as a value at $3,800 and boasts a ceiling of 48.6. The 26-year-old has yet to homer in 2020, but this game is played on Colorado where Dahl loves to hit. He batted.349 with nine home runs in 2019 in Coors Field. Dahl has the highest rating on the Bales Model at 78.26.
On DraftKings, the Los Angeles Angels own the slate’s top four-man stack:
- 1. David Fletcher (R)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Justin Upton (R)
- 4. Anthony Rendon (R)
Total Salary: $19,100
The Angels are implied for 5.4 runs, which ranks second on the main slate. Moreover, they are facing a Mariners team that has given up the most runs in 2020.
Fletcher stands out as a value at $3,800 and boasts a ceiling of 22.80. The 26-year-old is off to a scorching start in 2020, hitting .368 with two stolen bases. Fletcher is projected to hit leadoff which will give him ample opportunities against a putrid Mariners staff.
Other Batters
Finding value is going to be important if you are looking to roster an expensive stack or a top-end pitcher on today’s slate, and Cesar Hernandez stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He is priced at $2,500 against Cincinnati right-hander Tyler Mahle, who has an ERA over 5 the last two years.
Hernandez is expected to bad leadoff and has a rating over 70 according to the Bales Model.
Joc Pederson is another potential value option and can be found on FanDuel at $2,600. The Dodgers are implied for 4.5 runs against Dinelson Lamet and the San Diego Padres.
Pederson has homered in half of his at-bats vs. Lamet, and has a ceiling of 35.20 and a rating of 71.60 according to the Bales Model
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