Tuesday’s MLB DFS action features an 11-game main slate on FanDuel starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. I’ll feature my favorite plays of the slate and identify value options using the FantasyLabs tools and models.
Pitchers
Studs
There are a few top of the rotation arms featured on tonight’s slate, with three starters at $9,800 or more on FanDuel:
- Luis Castillo (R), $10,400, CIN @ KC
- Yu Darvish (R), $9,800, CHC vs. STL
- Carlos Carrasco (R), $9,800, CLE @ PIT
Castillo headlines this group of notable names, but is the least likely to make a lineup of mine. The main reason for this avoidance is the Kansas City Royals’ lineup, which may sound odd to regular DFS players. The Royals feature a .329 wOBA and are not a strikeout heavy team. Castillo has had strikeouts totals of 11, six, nine, and five on the season and his last time out with a performance of five was against these Royals. Tonight, Castillo has a K Prediction of just 4.03.
Darvish has really turned back the clock this season with a 1.88 ERA and 12.44 K/9. He is averaging 42 FanDuel points per game and has thrown at least six innings in three of his four starts. The Bales Model has Darvish as the sixth highest rated pitcher on this slate.
Darvish may be tasked with giving some length for the Chicago Cubs this evening. The Cubs’ rotation is a bit of a mess as they await the return of Jose Quintana. On top of this, the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals played a doubleheader yesterday, in which the Cubs used only bullpen arms for the second game.
An added benefit for Darvish tonight, is that the wind is projected to blow in at 11 MPH, which can have a drastic impact on run totals at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals have a slate-low 3.4 implied run total. Darvish is the best play of these three, with the third-highest slate K Prediction at 6.35.
Carrasco gets the pleasure of facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have a near slate low 3.8 implied runs for tonight. Vegas sees the Cleveland Indians at -197 favorites, which makes sense as the Pirates are on of the worst teams in the league. Carrasco’s K Prediction is the second highest on the slate at 6.42
The biggest issue for Carrasco tonight is that the Pirates play in a hitter friendly park. Carrasco has the second highest Park Factor in the Bales Model on tonight’s slate at 88. The only hitters that Carrasco has to fear though are Josh Bell and Collin Moran, so he can work around them if necessary.
Values
The No. 1-rated pitcher for tonight is Dylan Cease. Cease is priced at $8,200 on FanDuel tonight. He has quietly strung together three-straight wins for the Chicago White Sox and gets to face the Detroit Tigers tonight. Cease is a pretty large favorite at -172 and the Tigers have an implied run total of 3.9.
Cease is not known as a strikeout pitcher and has totals of one, four, four, and five on the season. Our model has a K Prediction of 6.12 for him tonight. That would be due to the Tigers having the second most strikeouts per game at 10.15 in 2020. This is a great spot for a pitcher that has been on a roll recently.
Tony Gonsolin rates as the second-highest pitcher on the Bales Model tonight. As Gonsolin faces the Seattle Mariners, as a -249 favorite, the only question surrounding him is whether he can last five innings. In two appearances this season, he has gone 4 and 4 2/3 innings. Walker Buehler was only able to complete three innings last night, so Dave Roberts could be looking for some length out of the young righty. With the expectations the Los Angeles Dodgers have this season, we have already seen Roberts have a quick hook on the younger starters in Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Julio Urias to have his bullpen protect leads.
At $7,100 on FanDuel, Gonsolin would fit any bat you wanted in your lineup. The Mariners have a putrid .249 wOBA and an implied run total of 3.6. Gonsolin has a K Prediction of 4.7 and has a game with 1 strikeout and 8 so far on the season – so that has been a bit tricky to predict. Odds are, the Dodgers win this game, if you’re rostering Gonsolin you’re taking the shot that he lasts for five innings.
The third-highest rated pitcher on the Bales Model is Blake Snell. This surprised me, in a matchup with the New York Yankees, but I think this has a lot to do with the discount that we are seeing on Snell at $8,400. That is $1,800 less than he was at the beginning of the season.
Snell could be a GPP low ownership pivot with high-risk, high-reward. The Yankees’ lineup in Yankee Stadium is always dangerous and features a wOBA of .311. The Yankees that could be in the lineup tonight (not including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu) are a combined 24-for-112 off of Snell with seven home runs and 42 strikeouts.
That’s a .196 average with a .667 OPS. This game has the feel of a tightly contested divisional affair. The Tampa Bay Rays have an implied run total of 4.4 and the Yankees’ is 4.2. If it is the pitching duel it is setting up to be, Snell could hit for big value.
I’d aim to roster Darvish, Carrasco, or Cease tonight. Gonsolin or Snell are worthy of GPP looks.
Notable Stacks
Today’s high-scoring stack is courtesy of the Boston Red Sox:
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 1. Alex Verdugo (L)
This stack comes in at only $12,900 on FanDuel with an implied run total of 5.3. They are projected for 50.4 fantasy points as they face the models lowest-rated pitcher in Zach Eflin.
The Dodgers feature a strong stack as well against the lowly Mariners. I’ll feature another cheaper stack that has the third-highest projected point total:
- 1. Cavan Biggio (L)
- 2. Randal Grichuk (R)
- 4. Teoscar Hernandez (R)
- 3. Lourdes Gurriel (R)
The Toronto Blue Jays feature this stack that is only $11,400 and projected for 48.9 FanDuel points. The Blue Jays scored seven runs last night and get the benefit of facing Wade LeBlanc in hitter friendly Camden Yards.
Other Batters
The highest-rated hitter on the slate has a Bargain Rating of 97%: Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen gets to face Zack Godley in Fenway Park. The Red Sox’s rotation and bullpen is a mess and at $2,400 as a projected leadoff hitter McCutchen has great value. The Bales Model also sees Didi Gregorius and Rhys Hoskins as bargains in the Philadelphia Phillies’ lineup.
Another leadoff hitter that has a 97% Bargain Rating is Cesar Hernandez. The model has liked Hernandez for the last few weeks now as it has taken the Indians’ offense some time to get going. Hernandez sits at $2,700, with a matchup in hitter friendly PNC Park. Hernandez hits on five ProTrends and the wind is projected to be blowing out to right at 7 MPH.
Pictured above: Yu Darvish #11 of the Chicago Cubs
Photo Credit: Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images
