The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 6:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slate are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,800, WSH @ NYM
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,700, PHI vs ATL
Corbin headlines the Monday slate as the highest-priced pitcher.
Corbin, who has been his dominant self to start 2020, will face off against the Mets for the second time this year. The 31-year-old was a key part of the Nationals’ World Series championship as he posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.49 FIP. His strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) stayed above 10 for the second year in a row.
His opening showings against the Yankees and Mets inspire optimism that he will continue to have success on Monday. He has a 3.00 ERA on the year and a 2.69 expected ERA (xERA), which says he has been a bit unlucky in his first two starts. He has struck out 16 batters and has a Base Performance Value (BPV) of 221.
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46).
Corbin’s recent history against the Mets is encouraging, as he had a 3.48 ERA against this team last year.
The Mets are implied to score 4.1 runs, which is tied as the third lowest on today’s slate. Corbin is projected for 34 points according to our models, which ranks third among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Another stud pitcher on the slate is Aaron Nola, who will face off against the Atlanta Braves. The 27-year-old is the ace of the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2019, his strikeouts per nine innings pitched were 10.19, which was a career-high. In 2020 Nola has an ERA of 3.97, but his xFIP is 1.49 and his strikeouts per nine innings are 15.09.
In this game the Phillies are -160 favorites, implying a 61.54% chance of winning. The Braves are implied to score 4.1 runs, which is tied as the third lowest on today’s slate. Nola is a strong option today and projected for 34.48 points, which rank first among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Values
Kyle Gibson is coming off his best start in a Texas uniform. The 32-year-old comes into his third start of 2020 with a 2.45 ERA and 2.96 xFIP.
He also has a nice matchup against the Mariners, whose offense is projected to score 3.7 runs. Gibson has a 62.15 rating in the Bales Model, which is the highest on today’s slate. As a result, Gibson stands out as a strong fantasy option on FanDuel, where he can be found at $8,700.
Lance McCullers struggled in his third start of 2020 as the Arizona Diamondbacks got to him early and often. He has a 9.22 ERA and 4.72 xFIP. The 26-year-old is being overlooked due to his scary ERA.
McCullers will face off against San Francisco, which is averaging just over four runs per game. McCullers is projected for 34.28 points, which is the second best on today’s slate. As a result, McCullers can be found on FanDuel at a price of $8,400.
Fastballs
Sean Manaea has not been very good in 2020 as has an 8.03 ERA. The 28-year-old has been extremely unlucky as he has a 3.87 xERA on the year.
Manaea has the fourth-highest rating in the Bales Model at 58.06, but his 8.03 ERA is going to keep his ownership at bay today.
Dustin May has been very impressive in 2020 with a 2.63 ERA and 2.59 xFIP, and will take on San Diego for the second time this year. In his first start against the Padres, May picked up the win tossing six innings of two-run ball.
The Padres are projected for 3.6 implied runs, which is the lowest on today’s slate. May has a 60.71 rating Bales Model, which is the second best on today’s slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Garret Hampson (R)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Charlie Blackmon (L)
Total Salary: $15,800
The Rockies are implied for 6.2 runs, which ranks first on the main slate. Moreover, they are facing a San Francisco team that is ranked 27th in runs allowed this season.
Story stands out as a value at $4,200 and boasts a bargain rating of 97%. The 27-year-old has five home runs and is hitting .276 in 2020. In 2019, Story hit 35 home runs, 24 of which came at Coors Field. Story has the second-highest rating on the Bales Model at 76.99.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trevor Story
Another player who stands out is Charlie Blackmon, who is hitting .458 with three home runs. Arizona will be sending lefty Robbie Ray to the mound, which is great news for Blackmon who has five home runs and is hitting .435 in 46 AB vs Ray. Look for Blackmon to continue his hot hitting today.
On DraftKings, the Arizona Diamondbacks own the slate’s top four-man stack:
- 1. Ketel Marte (S)
- 2. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 3. Starlin Marte (R)
- 4. Christian Walker (R)
Total Salary: $18,100
The Diamondbacks are implied for 5.5 runs, which ranks second on the main slate.
Ketel Marte stands out as a value at $5,000 and boasts a ceiling of 34.90. The 26-year-old is off to a strong start in 2020, hitting .302 with one home run. Marte is projected to hit leadoff, which will give him ample opportunities against the Jon Gray and the Rockies in Coors Field.
Other Batters
Shin Shoo Choo stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He is priced at $3,200 against Seattle right-hander Justin Dunn, who has an ERA over 6 this year. Choo is expected to bat leadoff and has one of the highest ratings on today’s slate.
Michael Conforto is another potential value option and can be found on FanDuel at $2,900. The 27-year-old is hitting .310 with three home runs in 2020 and faces off today against Nationals Lefty Patrick Corbin.
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