The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s early slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Tommy Pham ($3,400): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds offense is running hot to start the season, recording five or more runs in four of their first five games. Outfielder Tommy Pham has yet to contribute, but he projects as a low-cost option with boom potential against the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday.
Through four games, Pham has been held hitless, drawing three walks and scoring two runs. Still, we’re anticipating significant growth from Pham over his coming games as he remains below his advanced metrics across the board. The 34-year-old has an expected slugging percentage of .251, below his career norm of .470, and gets an ideal matchup against Triston McKenzie on Tuesday. McKenzie is a fastball pitcher, relying on it 61.6% of the time last season, with Pham posting a .511 expected slugging percentage against the heater, compared to .307 against breaking and .348 against offspeed pitches.
Yet again, the Reds opened with the highest implied run total tomorrow against the Guardians, and Pham should factor into the scoring.
Editor’s note: Be sure to monitor the weather leading up to lock for the Guardians-Reds game. Rain could be an issue.
Editor’s update 8:07 CT: Pham is not in the Reds’ lineup Wednesday.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Nick Madrigal ($2,100): Second Baseman, Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs’ second baseman Nick Madrigal is off to a slow start this season, but his metrics suggest he’s earmarked for progression. We’re expecting that to come against Zach Thompson and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Madrigal is making good contact to start the season, posting a hard-hit percentage of 44.4%, elevating his average exit velocity to a career-best 89.4 mph and an expected slugging percentage of .322. Still, the third-year pro has only one hit through 17 plate appearances, scoring one run with an actual slugging percentage of .067. Reconciling actual metrics with expected implies that Madrigal should progress significantly over his coming games.
According to our Vegas Projections, the Cubs rate as a top option, and Madrigal will get his chance to contribute near the top of the batting order.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Adam Wainwright ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
If father time can’t slow down Adam Wainwright, then what chance do the Kansas City Royals stand? Once again, the Royals are one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB and struggle more against righties than they do southpaws. That should allow Wainwright to build off his impressive first start of the season.
In his first start of the season, Wainwright gave up just five hits, striking out six in 6.0 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wainwright projects as a top option again, with an elite fantasy ceiling on both platforms. The Royals slug just .606 against right-handed pitchers and are coming off a six-strikeout performance against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
Somehow Wainwright continues to get better with age, posting above-average strikeout rates in five straight seasons. The three-time All-Star is a top option against KC.
Editor’s note: Wainwright’s ceiling projection has been adjusted — view MLB Player Models to see current adjustments. Be sure to monitor the weather for the Royals-Cardinals game. Rain could be an issue.
Hitter
Matt Olson ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Nobody is slowing down Matt Olson right now, and we’re not expecting Josiah Gray to offer much resistance. Through four games, the Atlanta Braves slugger has eight hits, five runs scored, two doubles, and a home run, posting some of the best analytics of his career. That’s not going to change against Gray, who gives up a lot of hard contact, allowing Olson to maintain his hot start to the season.
Olson’s plate discipline has been on full display, drawing five walks while striking out only three times, but it’s his production metrics that are lighting up his stats page. Through five games, the reigning All-Star has an expected slugging percentage of .892, ranking him in the top 3% of major league hitters. Similarly, Olson has an expected weighted on-base average of .602, putting him in the 99th percentile. Olson elevates the Braves’ offense and should shine against Gray and the Washington Nationals.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected ceiling in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Chris Paddack makes his Minnesota Twins debut against a former rival as the Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up a mini two-game set at Target Field. History is not on Paddack’s side, and according to our projections, a Dodgers’ stack is one of the best available.
Paddack has been roughed up by LA, posting a 7.07 earned run average against them through six career starts while allowing 2.57 home runs per nine innings. The Dodgers are coming off a seven-run game against the Twinkies on Tuesday, and the top of their batting order should continue their onslaught today.
The Dodgers have trotted out the same five players atop their batting order through the first four games of their season. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, and Justin Turner are coming off a dominant performance last night against the Twins in which they accounted for five runs and four runs batted in.
Still, all five batters are below their career norms in slugging percentage, suggesting that further progression should be anticipated.
It’s a quick turnaround for the Dodgers, playing a day game after last night’s affair. Stay tuned to our lineup projections to ensure you’ve got the most accurate batting order available.
