The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Luis Gonzalez ($2,300): Outfielder, San Francisco Giants
In his first full season in the big leagues, Gonzalez is batting .307 with a .355 wOBA. After returning to the lineup on Saturday, he went 3-for-7 over the weekend.
Gonzalez excels against right-handed pitching with a .398 wOBA and .184 ISO. He faces Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly at home tonight.
He’s not likely to blast the ball out of the park, but Gonzalez has shown enough at the plate to welcome the $2,300 salary in your lineups tonight.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Dansby Swanson ($3,600): Shortstop, Atlanta Braves
Swanson is off to a great start in 2022 with 14 home runs, a .302 batting average and a .368 wOBA.
He has turned things up over the last month, owning a +2.73 Plus/Minus over his last 30 games and posting six double-digit FanDuel-point games over his last 10. He has shown lineup-winning potential with two 40+ FanDuel-point games since June 23.
Swanson has a difficult matchup against Mets ace Max Scherzer tonight, but he could be a bargain contrarian play if Scherzer struggles against the potent Braves lineup.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($10,300 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel) at Atlanta Braves
Scherzer has the highest salary on the pitching slate tonight, but what do you expect for a three-time Cy Young Award winner having another stellar season?
In his first start since suffering an oblique strain on May 18, Scherzer struck out 11 in six scoreless innings against the Reds on July 5. He tallied 33.70 DraftKings points.
Tonight, Scherzer faces a strong Atlanta lineup with the second-most home runs in the majors. If you believe in Scherzer, tonight could be a relatively low-ownership start for the stud in your lineups.
Hitter
Kris Bryant ($5,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. San Diego Padres
Bryant was sidelined for more than a month with a back strain earlier this season. On the field, he’s hitting .300 in 29 games in his first season in Colorado, which would set a career-high season mark.
He seems to be getting the power back in his swing after the injury, knocking three home runs over his last three games. He showed his ceiling potential Friday with a 35-point DraftKings performance in Arizona with two home runs and a double.
Tonight, Bryant faces Sean Manaea of the Padres. Manaea is 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA this season. Vegas has this game with the highest implied run total tonight, and Bryant is showing promise to continue power production.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Padres. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.
San Diego gets the mountain air boost in Colorado tonight at Coors Field. The Padres have the highest implied run total on the slate against right-hander Jose Urena. Urena started the season in Milwaukee’s bullpen and is now making his second start with the Rockies tonight. He has a 2.51 ERA in just 14.1 innings this season and a career 4.73 ERA.
This relatively cost-efficient stack is highlighted by Manny Machado, whose salary has come way down after his lackluster return from injury on June 30. On the season, Machado has strong production numbers with a .309 batting average, 14 home runs and .389 wOBA.
Second baseman Jake Cronenworth has also struggled lately with just two double-digit DraftKings point games since June 22. He’s a bet with the high Park Factor Rating tonight in Colorado.
Staying with the trend, first baseman Luke Voit has struggled so far in July with a .207 average and one home run. In the Padres’ first trip to Coors Field this season, Voit went 5-for-10 with a dinger.
The stack finishes with two bargain options in outfielder Trent Grisham and top shortstop prospect CJ Abrams. Grisham has a +1.89 Plus/Minus rating over the last month. Abrams is batting .224 with one home run in his first major league season.
Let’s be frank: This stack is exciting due to the thin mountain air, not the Padres’ bats. San Diego’s recent poor production may make this stack a relatively low-ownership Coors Field play tonight.
Photo Credit: Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images.
Pictured: Manny Machado.
